Menu

Atlanta Braves pitching

MLB Coverage: Atlanta’s Shattered Starting Pitching

, , , , , ,

This should be the best of times for the Atlanta Braves. Their principal challengers for the NL East title, the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies can’t get any traction and the Braves’ lead remains a comfortable 7 ½ games coming into Thursday night.

But Atlanta is watching its starting pitching fall by the wayside, with Paul Maholm hitting the DL and Tim Hudson breaking his ankle and being out indefinitely. What do the Braves have left and is it enough? That’s the focus of today’s MLB coverage.

The good news for Atlanta is that Mike Minor is having a breakout year. He’s become a true top-of-the-rotation pitcher, the one thing this staff was lacking, with a 2.98 ERA in his twenty starts. Julio Teheran has also finally blossomed and is having a good year with a 3.25 ERA in nineteen trips to the post. If you had known at the start of the year that the fate of Atlanta’s pitching would rest on Minor and Teheran, it would have, at the very least, made you nervous. But they’ve come through.


Kris Medlen was the hottest pitcher in the National League down the stretch in 2012. The magic hasn’t been quite the same this year, but nor was it reasonable to expect that. Medlen’s 3.78 ERA in 20 starts at least establishes that he’s on a good long-term career path.

The trio of Minor, Teheran and Medlen doesn’t sound flashy, but it’s pretty good. Between Minor and Medlen you have two pitchers who have shown they can pitch like aces for sustained stretches. The problem, at least as of today, is that’s literally all there is.

Tim Hudson’s days as an ace, going back to his key role with the Moneyball-era Oakland A’s (a role overlooked in the making of the movie), are long over. But Hudson was still steady, with a 3.97 ERA in his twenty starts. The one thing hurting Atlanta’s staff was that they were expecting too much from the vet, but the emergence of the young trio above had allowed Hudson to slide into a more natural role of solid veteran back-end help. Now that’s gone.

Maholm’s loss hurts, but only because there’s no reliable big-league help to replace him. His ERA was up to 4.41 and that’s after a good start to the season. Over Maholm’s last four starts, his ERA was 7.65. His injury is a left wrist contusion, and while he should be back in August, the Braves have to hope the rest does him some good.

The big X-factor, as it’s been all year, is Brandon Beachy. He’s got the stuff to be a top-of-the-line arm and when healthy he’s delivered. But he hasn’t been healthy much lately. Beachy is on rehab right now, and there are reports that he’ll make his first start for the Braves on Monday. The question now, is whether it’s too late for him to find a groove and be effective. You have to put me down as a big skeptic at this point.

That’s what manager Fredi Gonzalez is taking into the final months of the season. He can count in Minor, Teheran and Medlen,  and he has to hope for the best with Maholm and Beachy. I suppose he can also hope for the best with Hudson—the veteran has not been ruled out for the year, but a broken ankle certainly doesn’t bode well.

THE ROTATION BY COMPARISON

Before we move to any conclusions, let’s compare Atlanta’s starting pitching to the rest of the NL East. Here’s how each team ranks in National League starters’ ERA, with any notable injury notes included…

Atlanta: 6th (this is a rank that’s been in slow decline throughout the year)
Philadelphia: 13th (Roy Halladay is pitching off a mound and hopes to be back by the end of August)
Washington: 5th
NY Mets: 7th
Miami: 9th

As you can see the division has at least respectable pitching. The Phils are the only team that’s truly bad, and they can at least bet on Cole Hamels finally turning it around and Halladay coming back. I’m not saying I would bet on those things, but that doesn’t make them unreasonable hopes.

ATLANTA BATTENS DOWN THE HATCHES

To me, the big number is 7 ½. That’s a lot of games to make up. I’ve stood by Washington as my preseason pick to win the NL East, and reaffirmed that over the All-Star break. And I fully expect the Nationals to make a push. Where I’m starting to have doubts is how long it’s taken Washington to get its act together, even with Bryce Harper healthy.


If Washington does rip off a stretch of something like 17-4, which is not unreasonable, given the quality of their starting pitching, then I think Atlanta’s going to be hard-pressed to hold them off. The back end spots of the Braves’ rotation, as currently constituted, are just way too weak and will be tantamount to giving up games.

I think the Maholm we’re seeing right now is much closer to the real thing then the one who started the season so well, and I’m not betting on Beachy, at least this year. Atlanta needs to make a trade between now and the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. Jake Peavy will be on the market, and a less drastic solution—someone who can just provide stable help in the 4 or 5 spot would also do the trick. Right now though, I don’t see the Braves’ decimated rotation holding this lead in the NL East.

Can The Atlanta Braves Starting Pitching Prevent Another Collapse?

, , , , ,

The Atlanta Braves hit their way into playoff contention during the first half of the season, but as they’ve solidified their wild-card position with six weeks left in the regular season, it’s the pitching that’s suddenly stepped front and center. Atlanta has the National League’s best ERA in the month of August. Even allowing that the bullpen is a key part of this, there’s no question the Braves’ starting pitching is coming through as the race heats up. Is this real or is it a temporary August mirage that will give way to another September fade? TheSportsNotebook breaks down the Atlanta Braves starting pitching…

Atlanta is currently using a six-man rotation. Let’s open with a quick listing of the numbers, the W-L records and  ERAs…

Tim Hudson: 12-4, 3.69
Tommy Hanson: 12-5, 4.27
Paul Maholm: 11-8, 3.50
Ben Sheets: 4-3, 3.07
Mike Minor: 6-10, 4.74
Kris Medlen: 5-1, 1.86

A lot of observers, TheSportsNotebook included, thought the Braves, with their good farm system, would be a strong player for an arm like Zack Greinke, or at the very least Ryan Dempster, at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. The Braves opted for grabbing a castoff like Ben Sheets, who hadn’ t pitched in the majors for two years, and letting Kris Medlen come back from the elbow surgery that had sidelined him since last season.

The performance of the two pitchers speaks for themselves. Medlen has won four straight starts and been lights-out. Sheets’ comeback is one of the great stories in baseball this year and Dennis Quaid will play him when they make a movie out of it. When you consider how much Greinke and Dempster have struggled, you have to give a thumbs-up to the Atlanta front office for ignoring those of us who thought they should be bold.

But let’s assume, as we should, that Medlen’s performance will come down to more human levels and we can see one clear problem with this rotation—there’s no clear #1 starter. Tim Hudson is still a reliable vet, but no longer the stopper he once was. Paul Maholm, another low-cost acquisition, compiled his numbers against mostly mediocre lineups in the NL Central, when he pitched for the Cubs. Minor is a touted prospect who proved to be not-quite-ready for prime time. Although in fairness, Minor has improved from being terrible at the start of the season to at least functionable in the second half.

Atlanta is 71-53 coming into Thursday’s games and they’ve fallen six games back of Washington in the NL East. With the possible shutdown of Stephen Strasburg coming, there’s a chance for a late push by the Braves, but that margin looks a little imposing. On the flip side, Atlanta is a solid plus-four in the wild-card standings, with Pittsburgh and Los Angeles in pursuit.

I think the overall depth of the Atlanta rotation is enough to get them over the top and into the wild-card game, when you consider the starters we’ve looked at combine with a good offense and solid bullpen. The problem I’ve got is envisioning them having playoff success when they don’t have a clear go-to guy for the one-game shootout, nor can they pair up ace on ace effectively in a Division Series setting.

The current wild-card game would be Atlanta hosting St. Louis. When you consider the way last season ended, and with Chipper Jones potentially playing his final game at home, this would be an electric setting if it works out that way. The Braves will at least get to that game and that might even win it, but they won’t go further.

NL East Report: Time For Atlanta’s Pitching To Step Up

, , , , ,

Every offensive juggernaut faces what the Atlanta Braves are right now—a point when your hitting stops carrying you and the pitching has to stand up and be counted. The Braves have one of the best offenses in the National League this season, but all at once, Michael Bourn has stopped getting on base, Fredi Freeman has stopped hitting for power and Jason Heyward has slowed. And in the first three games of four in Cincinnati, Atlanta scored just five runs combined and lost all three going into tonight’s finale. It’s nothing to panic over as far as the offense in general and these players in particular. But can the pitching keep the Braves upright over the long haul in a competitive division.

The rotation looks to have its top three settling in. Brandon Beachy has been the constant all year, with a 5-2 record and 1.77 ERA, while Tommy Hanson is rounding into form. Hanson’s been sharp his last four starts, which include games against the Cardinals, Rays and Reds. The same goes for Tim Hudson, who’s gone to the post five times since his return from the neck injury that delayed the veteran’s start to the season. Hudson’s last three outings have been against the Cubs, Rays and Reds and the result is 21.2 IP and only three earned runs.

It’s the back end of the rotation that’s the problem and bullpen depth that is at least a concern. #4 starter Mike Minor continues to struggle in establishing himself as a big-league pitcher. The ERA is 6.96 and no signs of life are evident. Randall Delgado hasn’t been that bad, but a 4.26 ERA is nothing special in the National League and his recent form doesn’t suggest a turnaround. In the pen, Craig Kimbrel is a reliable closer and Jonny Venters still as good as there is for the eighth inning. But Eric O’Flaherty, the third prong on the bullpen trio that was so devastating last year, is struggling, as is Chad Durbin. The intriguing move here is manager Fredi Gonzalez’s reliance on veteran Livan Hernandez, who thus far has delivered the goods—24 IP in 14 appearances and a 2.96 ERA. But how long can that be kept up?

I don’t know what to make of Atlanta. I picked them to win the NL East at the start of the year, but have been worried about the very issues outlined above since the season began. If nothing else, the settling of Hudson and Hanson will keep the ship steady. As to whether it’s enough to get over the top…pitching depth ultimately shows (or doesn’t show) in the late summer months, but for the short-term a weekend series in Washington, followed by three with St. Louis and then a return visit by the Nats will provide plenty of tests.

Atlanta’s currently 26-19 and in second place in the NL East. Here’s the rundown on how the rest of the division is looking…

Washington (26-18): It’s a tough schedule stretch for everybody in the NL East right now, with a lot of inter-division games leading up to matchups against the AL East when interleague play resumes on June 7, but perhaps no team is being more closely watched than the Nationals. There’s the natural storyline of the team pushing for its first playoff berth, coupled with debate over how much work to give to Stephen Strasburg. If nothing else, Davey Johnson can be secure that the rest of the staff is ready to pick up the slack if they rest the young ace—only Ross Detwiler had a rough week among starting pitchers and the Nats were able to go 3-3 against the Orioles & Phillies in spite of a combined 5-for-47 from Rick Ankiel and Adam LaRoche, dragging down a struggling offense.

NY Mets (24-20): Terry Collins’ team is the classic stay afloat crew right now, but I have to wonder how much longer they can keep it up. David Wright sizzled last week, as he has all year, going for 8-for-21, but other than Ronny Cedeno—who had ten hits—the rest of the lineup was impotent and the pitching staff’s ERA was 14th in the National League in the past seven days.

Miami (24-20): The Marlins have now won their last six three-game series (and split a pair of two-game sets) and they’ve gotten big performances from stars who’d been struggling. Josh Johnson was sharp in his last outing, going seven innings and giving up one run, while Hanley Ramirez caught fire with the bat, posting a .433 on-base percentage and .566 slugging. Six home games against San Francisco, then first-place Washington, give the Marlins a chance to push to the top of the pack.

Philadelphia (22-23): We know the Phillies can beat bad teams—a run of beating up on the Padres, Cubs and Astros moved them over .500, but then Philly faced Boston and Washington, promptly dropped four of six and slid back under .500 as they get to set to open a four-game series in St. Louis tonight. Their three reliable offensive players—Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence and Carlos Ruiz are all hot right now, so it’s painfully evident this team needs more. Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee got hit a little bit in their last starts—nothing that a good offense couldn’t occasionally cover for, but the margin of error for Philadelphia pitchers does not exist right now.

NL East Report: Atlanta Hopes Its Pitching Can Hold Up

, , , , ,

The Atlanta Braves have started the season well, with a 16-11 record coming into Saturday’s games, putting them in second place in the NL East and just 1.5 games back of Washington. The Braves have answered concerns about whether they had put last September’s collapse behind them, but as we evaluate their ability to keep this going for the year, we need to ask if the pitching is really good enough.

Atlanta is scoring runs—in fact they’re tied with St. Louis’ more heralded offense for most runs in the National League as of this morning. But the pitching is on the reverse end of the spectrum, at 12th in the NL. There’s no way any team competes over the long haul with that kind of pitching, so let’s move to the next level and see if there’s any possibility for the pitchers on hand to turn things around. Here’s the rundown on the Brave rotation…

*Brandon Beachy is the pride of the staff right now, with a dazzling 1.38 ERA in five starts.
*Tommy Hanson has been steady, at 3.74 over six starts.
*Tim Hudson is back from the neck injury that kept him out most of April. His two-start ERA of 6.55 is misleading, as he had a bad inning last night against Colorado, but otherwise has been fairly respectable. On the flip side, he’s only being kept out there for 5-6 innings.
*Randall Delgado has been hit hard over the past week and his ERA is on 5.13
*Mike Minor, a young arm of whom a lot is being asked, at 4.68 over five starts.
*Jair Jurrjens got off to a hideous start, at 9.37 in his four outings and he’s now on the DL for the rest of the year.

The concern TheSportsNotebook had about this rotation at the start of the year was that there was no clear ace, given Hudson’s injury and the fact he’s 36. The vet isn’t going to chew up the kind of innings you need from a #1 guy, although I think the fact that 10 of his 11 innings since the comeback have been effective has to be seen in a positive light. Delgado is a definite concern, as is Minor. What this boils down to is that essentially I don’t see anyone who’s a logical candidate to improve, given the inevitable comedown that Beachy has ahead of him. The latter has been an ace for a month and the reason the staff has done well enough to win, but I would see him stabilizing around Hanson’s numbers. Which still leaves the team without a clear #1.

If Delgado and Minor can lift their performance to where Hanson is at, Atlanta could make up for in balance what they lack in a stopper. But the injury to Jurrjens stripped them of depth and I have to think Fred Gonzalez is going to be tempted to give veteran Livan Hernandez, or Kris Medlen, back from reconstructive elbow surgery, a shot at starting before the first half of the year is over—or when the next injury comes.

Around the rest of the NL East…

Washington (17-9): The bats in Washington are cooled down right now, partly due to natural slumps, partly due to the fact that last weekend they were in Los Angeles and this weekend they’re playing Philadelphia. The excitement over Bryce Harper’s excellent start since being called up has temporarily obscured the problems the Nats face with Ryan Zimmerman’s trip to the DL. There’s still a lot to like about this lineup and the pitching is good enough to keep things going but a testing time is ahead.

NY Mets (13-13): Mike Pelfrey is lost for the year, Jason Bay is on the disabled list and the Mets have a key week against the Phillies and Marlins on the road starting on Monday. The good news is that Johan Santana tossed six shutout innings in his last start. One legend starts to make his way back in New York, as another, in Mariano Rivera, faces his own career-threatening injury. But with most of the pitching struggling, David Wright being the only offensive producer, and the schedule ahead, I would expect the Mets to assume their expected place in the cellar.

Philadelphia (13-14): Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence have to carry this offense and both are in a bit of a slump right now, as the Phillies try and bounce back from losing Friday’s opener in Washington and keep themselves close to the first place Nats. As the bats seem to get worse, the pitching seems to get better—Joe Blanton has been dominant for two straight starts, averaging 8 IP/1 ER in both and Vance Worley’s looking as good as any of the Big Three. Even with Cliff Lee on the disabled list, this team can still shut people down.

Miami (12-14): A nice sweep of San Francisco on the road earlier in the week have gotten the Marlins back on the board after a slow start, and the big thanks has to go with rightfielder Giancarlo Stanton, who found his form from last season and ripped four home runs in the past week. Anibal Sanchez is dominating in the mound…but Josh Johnson’s struggles continue, so while a return to .500 level is natural, the Marlins won’t make it much further past that without a return to form by their ace.