Menu

Andrew McCutchen Pirates

The National League MVP Race

, , , , ,

TheSportsNotebook’s midseason MVP voting continues today, with a look at the National League. As I explained in yesterday’s preface to the American League Top 10, there are two areas that conventional voters weight much more heavily than I do. I could care less if someone is on a contender, though I will at least give consideration to whether they helped their team achieve a significant goal (which could be a winning season for a long-suffering franchise as much as it could a playoff berth for a consistent one). And I have no bias against pitchers, given how big their impact is on the games they start. With that said, here’s how the Top 10 in the National League MVP race breaks down at TheSportsNotebook…

1)Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh): Whatever criteria you want to look at, McCutchen is bringing it. He’s batting .362 with an on-base percentage up over .400. He’s hitting for power and slugging an astronomical .625. He does it without any real support in the lineup and he’s the biggest reason a long-suffering franchise is not only in position for its first winning season since 1992, but is in first place in the NL Central. While I don’t think he leads the field by as much as Josh Hamilton does in the American League, the Pirate centerfielder is still a clear #1 choice.

2)Ryan Braun (Milwaukee): Here’s where my non-bias against non-contending teams comes in, though I suppose Milwaukee does have an outside shot at a wild-card push if they don’t trade Zack Greinke. But Braun has hit 24 home runs, has 61 RBI and his on-base percentage is at .391. This in spite of losing his lineup support when Prince Fielder left for Detroit, and having his table-setter, Rickie Weeks, morph from an All-Star into one of the worst everyday players in the game. Last year I did not vote for Braun at season’s end, opting instead for Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp, who posted big numbers in a bad lineup. I understand why the actual voters will have bias against Braun based on the Brewers’ record, and since that same factor worked in his favor last year, all’s fair. But all’s got to be fair at TheSportsNotebook as well, and I see the Milwaukee left fielder as a close second.

3)David Wright (NY Mets): The .563 slugging percentage is a little lower than the other contenders, but of the top four hitters in the National League, Wright is the only one who plays in a true pitchers’ park at Citi Field. And the .441 on-base percentage is outstanding, as are the 59 RBI in a lineup without a lot of help. He’s carried the everyday lineup as the Mets exceed expectations.

4)Joey Votto (Cincinnati): I have him lower than the mainstream media consensus would suggest, given that this race is generally posited as Votto vs. McCutchen. While I would concur that the Cincy first baseman is very close to the top, and the OBP/Slugging stat line is dazzling at .417/.617, he is in one of the best hitters’ parks. And to my surprise, Votto graded out very poorly on the defensive metrics (areas where McCutchen and Braun excelled, and Wright at least treaded water). In a race this close, everything matters and defense was enough to push Votto down to fourth.

5)R.A. Dickey (NY Mets):The knuckleballer has done for the Mets’ pitching what Wright has done for the everyday lineup and that’s invite everyone to get on his back for a ride. Dickey’s not only got the 12 wins and the 2.40 ERA, he’s got 120 innings pitched, a serious workload for a starter in this day and age. The downside? Given Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, I think the ERA has to come down even more. A tough expectation, but this is the MVP we’re talking about and this year’s field is a competitive one.

Insert a theoretical page break here. Because I can see a credible argument for any of the top five to win the award based strictly on performance to date. Below this line, anyone else would be a stretch, though a second-half surge could alter the equation.

6)Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati): His ERA is a nudge below Dickey’s, at 2.39 and Cueto’s got 10 wins and the same 120 IP. Why isn’t’ the above the line then? It’s a relative value question. While Cincy’s pitching isn’t great, they aren’t quite as dependent on their ace as New York is on theirs.  But while I rank Cueto sixth right now, I expect him to pass Dickey for the Cy Young season’s end and move up this list.

7)Melky Cabrera (San Francisco): With a .353 batting average, Melky and Buster Posey kept the San Francisco offense afloat when Pablo Sandoval was hurt, and the team at least stayed above water. Now Cabrera is a big part of what’s been push right into the NL West race. With seven home runs a .519 slugging percentage, he’s not top-tier MVP material, but easily a Top 10 choice.

8)Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta): Closers, like DH’s, are a spot I do have something of a bias against, given how specialized the role is. If you don’t share my view, you could move Kimbrel into the top tier right now. He’s closed 25/26 save chances, has a 1.36 ERA and Atlanta is a team very dependent on its bullpen as they hang in the race for both the NL East and the wild-card.

Time another theoretical line break. While I could see Cueto, Cabrera or Kimbrel moving up to serious contention by season’s end, it’s highly unlikely anyone below this will do any more than merit honorable mention.

9)Carlos Ruiz (Philadelphia): The veteran catcher has been a bright spot in a lost season, posting  a .412/.584 stat line, keyed by a .350 batting average. The factors holding him back are being a hitter’s park, and while I don’t hold non-contending status against a player, it’s harder to justify when that status is on a big underachieving team.

10)James McDonald (Pittsburgh): We open and close this Top 10 with a Pirate. As good as McCutchen has been, it’s pitching that has kept the Pittsburgh ship sailing and McDonald has nine wins with a 2.37 ERA. He’s got ten fewer IP than Dickey or Cueto, accounting for his being the third starter named, but if he added more innings he can move up the list.

I don’t do honorable mentions, since the last names in a Top 10 basically amount to that. I do want to call attention to Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt though. Not because I’m trying a politician-type move of jamming more names into the Top 10 or because Goldschmidt is my #11. I don’t know where I’d rank him right now, but given how much the power-hitting first baseman picked up his game in the last couple months, how hot he’s capable of getting and the fact he can slug Arizona to an NL West title, Goldschmidt (.368/.552, 12 HRs) is the man to watch in either league if you’re looking for someone not in serious contention right now to pour it on and win an MVP by season’s end.

NL Weekly Report: Pittsburgh Pirates Join National Heat Wave

, , , , ,

Amidst a mid-July that has much of American submerged in record heat, the Pittsburgh Pirates are only serving to turn up the temperatures further, ripping off a hot streak that’s moved them to the top of the National League Central as the franchise looks for its first winning season since 1992—also the last time they made the playoffs, as the “Buccos” as they’re called down on the banks of the Allegheny where I once worked the produce yards, have never made the postseason in the post-realignment era begun in 1994 with the creation of the NL Central.

The hot streak started in mid-June. Pittsburgh lost three straight in Baltimore, but came out of Camden Yards and haven’t lost a series since. They beat Minnesota and Detroit, then split four with Philadelphia. Then the Pirates took a series from St. Louis and hung a four-game sweep on Houston. It’s worth noting that while that schedule isn’t brutal, nor is it a walk in the park. The Twins are an above-average team in the AL over the last two months, and the Tigers are playing better. The Cardinals are right in the midst of the Central race. Only Houston was truly an easy series and even at that, any major league team that sweeps a four-game set is playing good baseball.

Andrew McCutchen is the undisputed star of this team, with his .413/.610 stat line for on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He’s batting .360, has hit 16 home runs and is going to spend the rest of the season having his MVP merits debated. What has helped Pittsburgh of late is that he’s gotten a little bit of help. Not a lot, but for a lineup that previously lined up the Seven Dwarfs behind the star, anything helps. Second baseman Neil Walker has lifted his on-base percentage to a respectable .345 and gotten eight hits in his last 21 at-bats. Third baseman Pedro Alvarez has chipped on the power side of the equation, moving his slugging percentage to .484 behind 16 home runs on the year. Both Walker and Alvarez are in their mid-20s and there’s reason to hope that each could swing the bat well in the second half of the season. Perhaps you can pair that up with the occasional random hot streak from the others, like the one journeyman rightfielder Drew Sutton is currently enjoying, and get enough offense to compete.

Ultimately it’s pitching that’s going to determine if Pittsburgh can win the division and bring postseason play to the beautiful gem that is PNC Park. But it’s here that manager Clint Hurdle has reason to be a little concerned. Erik Bedard has been struggling after a strong start, and his ERA has risen from 3.07 in mid-May to 4.80 after losing a series opener to San Francisco last night. Normally the question with Bedard is just his staying healthy. Now it’s his actual performance. A.J. Burnett has been reasonably competent, but with a 3.74 ERA while facing DH-less lineups in the game’s worst division, I’m sure he’s not inspiring regrets in the Bronx after the Yankees traded him to Pittsburgh this past offseason. I wonder how long Hurdle can hold off making Brad Lincoln a regular member of the rotation. He’s been a fill-in when there are injuries, giving five starts to go with his sixteen relief appearances and his ERA is a solid 3.14. And the 1.17 WHIP (baserunners per inning) tell us that it’s not a fluke. I’d pull the trigger and put Lincoln in the rotation. Better to move out Kevin Correia or Charlie Morton.

One pitcher who’s not getting moved anywhere is James McDonald, the ace of the staff who’s delivered a 2.45 ERA and gets the ball today with a chance to keep Pittsburgh’s streak of series wins alive for at least one more day (Burnett pitches Sunday).

The Pirates will need to make some moves at the trade deadline and the recent struggles by the veteran pitchers may shift the focus from the everyday lineup, where we assumed it would be as recently as a month ago, to the staff. Last year Pittsburgh was cautious at the deadline, making low-risk investments in Ryan Ludwick and Derek Lee. That was the right move at the time. But now the Pirates have a much better chance to win the division and the NL Central has at least a chance to grab one of the wild-cards in the expanded playoff format (Cincinnati would be in the postseason if the season ended today). It’s appropriate for general manager Neal Huntingdon to roll the dice.

Around the rest of the National League…

*The Washington Nationals keep churning, which will only add to the drama when they have to shut down Stephen Strasburg when he reaches his innings limit. I’d say it would add to the debate, but it looks like there is no debate within the Nationals organization. That will add to the trade deadline debate in places like New York, where the Mets are hanging close enough to catch a Strasburg-less Washington. And there’s no doubt Atlanta, five games off the pace will make improvements at the trade deadline. And don’t lose sight of Miami, who may be well off Washington’s pace, but is only five out in the wild-card race.

*St. Louis got bad news when it learned Chris Carpenter won’t make it back this month, or any other month in 2012. The Cardinals are still only 2.5 back of the Pirates and within a game of Cincinnati, who as noted, would be getting a wild-card game shot against San Francisco if the playoffs started today. Add another team to the market for starting pitching as the July 31 trade deadline nears.

*Los Angeles recovered from the slump that dropped them from first place and nudged back ahead of San Francisco, and the Dodgers were saved from themselves in the trade market. A foolish move to acquire Carlos Lee, who isn’t hitting in Houston and would do even worse in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, was vetoed by Lee. Now the Dodgers can either acquire someone who might actually produce or do they really smart thing and just continue the building process that’s moving along at a nice pace.

NL All-Star Report: Pittsburgh’s McCutchen Fills CF Void

, , , , , ,

By the middle of May the race to be the National League’s best centerfielder looked like kind of like the race for the NBA title during the Michael Jordan era—it was about watching to see who would finish second. That’s how dominant Matt Kemp was for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as he rattled off a .444 on-base percentage and a stunning .719 slugging percentage in a tough hitter’s park, keying his team’s scorching start. Then Kemp went down with a hamstring injury. Then he came back and promptly re-injured the hammy. Now he’s just hoping to be able to play in Kansas City for the July 10 All-Star Game.

You might still choose to vote for Kemp as a reward for both last season, when he should have won the MVP award (and that has nothing to do with steroid allegations surrounding Ryan Braun) and his fast start (that’s what I intend to do), but this particular feature of TheSportsNotebook is about tracking where players are based strictly on the body of work for the 2012 season and by that standard, Kemp’s lack of playing time clearly leaves him short and opens the door for others. But any hope of a real debate on that has been effectively closed off by Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen.

McCutchen has an on-base percentage/slugging percentage stat line of .398/.577. While PNC Park might be friendlier for a hitter than Dodger Stadium, the Pirate lineup takes the phrase “lack of support” and brings it to new levels, especially for a contender. The team is 15th in the NL in runs scored and the presence of McCutchen is the one thing that separates them from San Diego and with Pirate pitching as good as it is, McCutchen’s “get on my back and I’ll carry you” kind of season is what’s enabling his team to win close, low-scoring games, rather than lose them and why he has passed Ben Roethlisberger as the most valuable athlete on the confluence of the Three Rivers.

The injection of the Pirate centerfielder into the MVP race isn’t a major shock, as you could see him coming as a star for the past three seasons. He’s been a full-time player for three years and in 2009 introduced himself with a .365/.471 stat line. The following two seasons saw him jump to 570+ at-bats per year (a leap of 140 from ’09). The on-base percentage held steady in the mid-.360s, and the home runs increased and reached 23 last season. What’s noteworthy is that while his batting average dropped 27 points in 2011, he made up for it by upping his walk totals from 89 to 126, thus showing the kind of balance a star player needs. Right now he’s not needing to walk, with a .340 batting average, although if Pittsburgh doesn’t get him some help one wonders how much longer opposing pitchers will give him anything to hit. Particularly given his 13 home runs, setting him on a pace for a career high. Whatever the rest of the season holds for McCutchen, the record tells us he’s going to produce and he’s going to play a good defensive centerfield. He’s far and away the best centerfielder in the National League based on the season to date and should create a good debate with Kemp once both are back and healthy—who knows, perhaps the two stars will even go head-to-head in the National League Division Series.

Colorado’s Dexter Fowler isn’t the choice for the top spot, but he deserves mention and quite possibly a place in Kansas City as an NL backup, pending how the rest of the rosters shake out. The Rockie centerfielder has a .374/.518 line making him clearly the best of the Kemp/McCutchen challengers. Let’s also give a nod to Atlanta’s Michael Bourn, with his.356 OBP setting the table, a .440 slugging that’s pretty good for a leadoff guy and an excellent defensive season. Both are close enough to the leaders to make a run at this spot when TheSportsNotebook revisits the topic in September.

Moving down the ladder to centerfielders who are good, but nowhere in shouting distance of the league’s best, are Miami’s Emilio Bonifacio and St. Louis’ Jon Jay. Both are geared more strictly to getting on base without much power, but they each do a solid job in creating action on the base paths. Health is a factor here—Jay just got off the disabled list after a separated shoulder, and Bonifacio just went on after a hand injury that will keep him out to mid-July.

Gerardo Parra and Angel Pagan, in Arizona and San Francisco respectively, aren’t tearing it up, but both have OBPs in .340 range. Parra supplements that with respectable power, having popped six home runs and slugging .437. Pagan plays good defense, an invaluable asset on a team geared more to run prevention than production. And a shout-out also to New York’s Kirk Nieuwenhuis. He’s now playing left field, but has gotten his share of time in centerfield along the way has compiled a .339 OBP. The Mets are currently playing Andres Torres in center, hoping the veteran can stay healthy and build on his own .333 OBP.

Now let’s move to the three big disappointments. Milwaukee’s Nyjer Morgan leads up this group, as he’s doing nothing with the bat and is not notable defensively. For as many injuries as the Brewers have had, it’s the failings of players like Morgan and second baseman Rickie Weeks hurt even more, as they were supposed to be the 1-2 punch at the top of the order. Instead the only punch they’ve delivered is one to the collective gut of Brewer fans. Washington’s Rick Ankiel and Philadelphia’s Shane Victorinio are also having lousy years with the bat, something that’s more surprising in the case of Victorinio, but just as disappointing in either case. Unlike Morgan though, both Ankiel and Victorino excel in the field at a critical defensive spot.

Jordan Schafer for Houston and Cameron Maybin in San Diego fall into the area I did when I went to college in my freshman year. Bear with me on this story. I hadn’t worked out all summer and when I did my bench-press, I forget the weight amount, but it was something awful. The strength coach just said to write “improvement needed” on my card. A nice way of saying there was still time, but a lot of work was ahead. I’ll extend the same niceties to Schafer and Maybin. And I suppose we could say the same for Chicago’s Tony Campana, but in the case the improvement is going to have to happen by shipping him out of town and getting a new player in there.

NL Central Report: Pittsburgh’s Opportunity To Make A Move Is Now

, , , , , ,

If you’re looking for a team to break out of the NL Central muddle that’s piled up behind frontrunning St. Louis, the Pittsburgh Pirates would be a team to keep on your radar over the next couple weeks. The Pirates’ record of 10-14 is certainly nothing special, but there’s an intriguing nuance in that record—Pittsburgh has played six series against teams other than St. Louis. They’ve got a 3-2-1 record in those series. It’s nothing that suggests a burgeoning powerhouse, ready to shoot up the ladder to second place, but it does suggest that Clint Hurdle’s team might make some hay when they begin a nine-game homestand against Cincinnati, Washington and Houston on Friday.

If the Pirates are going to make a move, they are going to have find hitters who will drive the ball with some authority. The only slugging percentages that are productive right now belong to Pedro Alvarez at third, who lifted his numbers with hot week, and Garrett Jones at first base, slugging .482 on the season. But they need more from Andrew McCutchen. The centerfielder is hitting .303, but has only one home run and in drawing only six walks, he’s not a productive as his batting average suggests. I don’t mean to imply McCutchen isn’t playing well, but the Pirates locked him up to a big long-term deal this offseason to be a star and he has to earn that contract with complete offensive performance. The coming nine games would be a good place to start. And rightfielder Jose Tabata simply has to do something—he’s batting .221—or some of us, like myself, have to stop talking about his potential.

The starting pitching is getting the job done, as Erik Bedard, James McDonald and Kevin Correia all have ERAs under 3. Doing that for the entire season might be unrealistic, but there’s no reason to think that in general, Hurdle’s got a good top three. Bedard’s health is the biggest X-factor. And don’t be fooled by A.J Burnett’s 8.04 ERA in three starts. He got barbequed last night in St. Louis for seven runs and left in the third, but his other two starts—another against the Cardinals and one against the Braves—were both excellent.

Shop for officially licensed Pittsburgh Pirates apparel and accessories from Fanatics!

I wasn’t a big believer in Pittsburgh at the start of the season, so I’m not necessarily predicting a breakout. What I am saying is that if you were a believer, now is the time for the team to justify that optimism. And all of us should be paying attention in a division looking for a challenger to St. Louis. Here’s a look around the rest of the NL Central…

St. Louis (16-8): The bats have reached some level beyond scorching hot, averaging close to ten runs a game in the past week. I can rattle off the hot hitters and bury you with numbers, but how about we just cite David Freese. I choose him because he’s hitting .250 this week and popped a couple home runs, but he’s the coldest hitter in the everyday lineup. I’m also going to cite Jon Jay, who had an on-base percentage of .636. I cite him because a couple hours ago I picked him up for my Fantasy team, meaning an 0-for-15 stretch is sure to follow.

Cincinnati (11-12): As this article goes online the Reds are playing the Cubs, and hold a 1-0 lead so they could be .500 by the time you read this. And I don’t think they can be too unhappy. Cincy has gradually played better baseball, is getting very good pitching and enjoyed a power surge from Jay Bruce who homered in four straight games. If Pittsburgh is the challenger to watch in the short term then Cincy is the one with the best long-term prospects for making a move on the Cardinals.

Milwaukee (11-14): On Monday night, Ryan Braun hit three home runs in San Diego’s Petco Park. Tuesday and Wednesday the team was shut out. It’s the latest in an up-and-down year that includes Yovani Gallardo’s inability to even be competitive against St. Louis. The Cardinals rocked the Brewer ace last Friday night, the second time this year, they’ve run him off the mound early. There’s time to get things fixed, but this team has problems right now.

Houston (11-14): It’s a sign of how low expectations were in Houston that this record makes them kind of a nice early story, as they come off sweeping the Mets three straight. The Astros are doing it with the bats, with second baseman Jose Altuve continuing a strong start, along with shortstop Jed Lowrie. Young centerfielder Jordan Schaefer, acquired from Atlanta in the trade that shipped Michael Bourn out of town, had a .389 OBP over the past week. The starting pitching continues to show why the ‘Stros likely finish in the season in last place anyway, but Brett Myers is handling the closer duties well, nailing down three chances this week in perfect order.

Chi Cubs (9-15): If the Cubbies can continue to get the kind of starting pitching they got this last week from Jeff Samardizja, Matt Garza and Paul Maholm, they can make a move up the standings. The team ranked 7th in the NL in ERA over the past seven days, but the offense continues to struggle.