Menu

Andrew McCutchen MVP

The National League MVP Race With A Month To Go

, , , , ,

Andrew McCutchen has been seen as the runaway leader for the National League MVP, although the Pirates’ struggle to hold on the playoff race make take its toll in the final voting for their centerfielder. What McCutchen does have going for him is that there aren’t clear-cut candidates from other contenders. With that as the landscape, let’s size up the race for National League MVP as the regular season has exactly four weeks left.

In yesterday’s post about the AL MVP race I noted two disclaimers—I don’t have the same bias in favor of players on contenders, nor do I have a problem with starting pitchers, given the impact on the games they pitch. This was seen last year when I opted for Matt Kemp over Ryan Braun in the National League race. Kemp had numbers that were a little bit better, he played on a team without a lot of lineup support and he helped the 2011 Dodgers reach .500, a legitimate team accomplishment given the talent level. I cite this not to rehas the ’11 race, but to note the irony—things have come full circle and that’s exactly the argument that Braun can bring to the table in 2012.

The Brewer left fielder has a .389/.605 stat line for on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He’s batting .312, and has driven in 98 runs. Even more surprising given the lack of great offensive talent around him after the loss of Prince Fielder, Braun has also scored 90 runs. And for those who thought he’d lose power after the steroid controversy of the offseason? How about 37 home runs, the final seal of vindication. And in spite of not just losing Fielder, trading Zack Greinke and in general having an injury-riddled season, the Brewers have a  shot at .500, with a 66-69 record. Furthermore, the offense ranks 3rd in the league in runs scored, meaning it’s the Braun-led attack carrying the team. As far as I’m concerned that adds up to a good definition of an MVP.

Before we give the lead in the race to Bruan though, let’s vet the other candidates. McCutchen’s stat line is .409/.565, and while he doesn’t have the same power as Braun (24 home runs), he’s hitting .347 and statheads believe—and I agree—that a point of on-base percentage is worth more than a point of slugging percentage. And it’s the former where McCutchen is superior to Braun. The Pirate lineup provides no real support and though Pittsburgh ranks 13th in the NL in runs scored, without McCutchen they would likely rank about 18th in the 16-team National League. In spite of it, the Pirates are still in striking distance of a wild-card sport and certainly in position to seal their first winning season since 1992. That too, adds up to a good definition of an MVP.

The dark horse candidate in this field would be San Francisco catcher Buster Posey. At .401/.527, his stat line isn’t as dazzling, but the relative value of a catcher posting numbers like that can make up for a statistical gap. If we had to vote right now, I’d still have Posey in third, mainly because for much of this season he’s had help from Melky Cabrera, who was having an MVP-level season of his own before being suspended for steroid use. If Posey closes with a flourish, it eliminates that argument and it certainly helps if San Francisco holds its lead in the NL West. The offense has been a bigger part of Frisco’s success this year, and Posey is the biggest remaining reason.

We can give a shout-out to players like Carlons Gonzalez (.382/.532), David Wright (.403/.501) and Matt Holliday (.379/.522), although they are second-level candidates. Holliday is stacked with support in St. Louis, while Gonzalez has the aid of Coors Field in Colorado. Wright could make a stronger case given the tough dimensions of New York’s Citi Field, although even given that I’d like to see the slugging percentage come up 20-25 more points before considering him for the award.

Pitching-wise, Wright’s teammate R.A. Dickey has won 18 games and worked nearly 200 innings already, while Cincinnati’s Johnny Cueto has a 17-7 record and 2.58 ERA. Because Cueto, who works in a much worse pitching environment than Dickey, has a slightly better ERA (Dickey’s at 2.64) I’d have to give the nod to the Cincy ace. He’d also make a worthy candidate for MVP,  but even though his 188 IP is solid, it’s a little behind what I’d want to see from a starting pitcher before giving him the nod (Justin Verlander worked 240 IP a year ago and won 24 games by way of comparison).

As the race stands right now, I’d give Braun a slight edge over McCutchen, with Posey coming hard on the outside and still a possibility for Cueto if he finishes on a tear.

The National League MVP Race

, , , , ,

TheSportsNotebook’s midseason MVP voting continues today, with a look at the National League. As I explained in yesterday’s preface to the American League Top 10, there are two areas that conventional voters weight much more heavily than I do. I could care less if someone is on a contender, though I will at least give consideration to whether they helped their team achieve a significant goal (which could be a winning season for a long-suffering franchise as much as it could a playoff berth for a consistent one). And I have no bias against pitchers, given how big their impact is on the games they start. With that said, here’s how the Top 10 in the National League MVP race breaks down at TheSportsNotebook…

1)Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh): Whatever criteria you want to look at, McCutchen is bringing it. He’s batting .362 with an on-base percentage up over .400. He’s hitting for power and slugging an astronomical .625. He does it without any real support in the lineup and he’s the biggest reason a long-suffering franchise is not only in position for its first winning season since 1992, but is in first place in the NL Central. While I don’t think he leads the field by as much as Josh Hamilton does in the American League, the Pirate centerfielder is still a clear #1 choice.

2)Ryan Braun (Milwaukee): Here’s where my non-bias against non-contending teams comes in, though I suppose Milwaukee does have an outside shot at a wild-card push if they don’t trade Zack Greinke. But Braun has hit 24 home runs, has 61 RBI and his on-base percentage is at .391. This in spite of losing his lineup support when Prince Fielder left for Detroit, and having his table-setter, Rickie Weeks, morph from an All-Star into one of the worst everyday players in the game. Last year I did not vote for Braun at season’s end, opting instead for Los Angeles’ Matt Kemp, who posted big numbers in a bad lineup. I understand why the actual voters will have bias against Braun based on the Brewers’ record, and since that same factor worked in his favor last year, all’s fair. But all’s got to be fair at TheSportsNotebook as well, and I see the Milwaukee left fielder as a close second.

3)David Wright (NY Mets): The .563 slugging percentage is a little lower than the other contenders, but of the top four hitters in the National League, Wright is the only one who plays in a true pitchers’ park at Citi Field. And the .441 on-base percentage is outstanding, as are the 59 RBI in a lineup without a lot of help. He’s carried the everyday lineup as the Mets exceed expectations.

4)Joey Votto (Cincinnati): I have him lower than the mainstream media consensus would suggest, given that this race is generally posited as Votto vs. McCutchen. While I would concur that the Cincy first baseman is very close to the top, and the OBP/Slugging stat line is dazzling at .417/.617, he is in one of the best hitters’ parks. And to my surprise, Votto graded out very poorly on the defensive metrics (areas where McCutchen and Braun excelled, and Wright at least treaded water). In a race this close, everything matters and defense was enough to push Votto down to fourth.

5)R.A. Dickey (NY Mets):The knuckleballer has done for the Mets’ pitching what Wright has done for the everyday lineup and that’s invite everyone to get on his back for a ride. Dickey’s not only got the 12 wins and the 2.40 ERA, he’s got 120 innings pitched, a serious workload for a starter in this day and age. The downside? Given Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, I think the ERA has to come down even more. A tough expectation, but this is the MVP we’re talking about and this year’s field is a competitive one.

Insert a theoretical page break here. Because I can see a credible argument for any of the top five to win the award based strictly on performance to date. Below this line, anyone else would be a stretch, though a second-half surge could alter the equation.

6)Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati): His ERA is a nudge below Dickey’s, at 2.39 and Cueto’s got 10 wins and the same 120 IP. Why isn’t’ the above the line then? It’s a relative value question. While Cincy’s pitching isn’t great, they aren’t quite as dependent on their ace as New York is on theirs.  But while I rank Cueto sixth right now, I expect him to pass Dickey for the Cy Young season’s end and move up this list.

7)Melky Cabrera (San Francisco): With a .353 batting average, Melky and Buster Posey kept the San Francisco offense afloat when Pablo Sandoval was hurt, and the team at least stayed above water. Now Cabrera is a big part of what’s been push right into the NL West race. With seven home runs a .519 slugging percentage, he’s not top-tier MVP material, but easily a Top 10 choice.

8)Craig Kimbrel (Atlanta): Closers, like DH’s, are a spot I do have something of a bias against, given how specialized the role is. If you don’t share my view, you could move Kimbrel into the top tier right now. He’s closed 25/26 save chances, has a 1.36 ERA and Atlanta is a team very dependent on its bullpen as they hang in the race for both the NL East and the wild-card.

Time another theoretical line break. While I could see Cueto, Cabrera or Kimbrel moving up to serious contention by season’s end, it’s highly unlikely anyone below this will do any more than merit honorable mention.

9)Carlos Ruiz (Philadelphia): The veteran catcher has been a bright spot in a lost season, posting  a .412/.584 stat line, keyed by a .350 batting average. The factors holding him back are being a hitter’s park, and while I don’t hold non-contending status against a player, it’s harder to justify when that status is on a big underachieving team.

10)James McDonald (Pittsburgh): We open and close this Top 10 with a Pirate. As good as McCutchen has been, it’s pitching that has kept the Pittsburgh ship sailing and McDonald has nine wins with a 2.37 ERA. He’s got ten fewer IP than Dickey or Cueto, accounting for his being the third starter named, but if he added more innings he can move up the list.

I don’t do honorable mentions, since the last names in a Top 10 basically amount to that. I do want to call attention to Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt though. Not because I’m trying a politician-type move of jamming more names into the Top 10 or because Goldschmidt is my #11. I don’t know where I’d rank him right now, but given how much the power-hitting first baseman picked up his game in the last couple months, how hot he’s capable of getting and the fact he can slug Arizona to an NL West title, Goldschmidt (.368/.552, 12 HRs) is the man to watch in either league if you’re looking for someone not in serious contention right now to pour it on and win an MVP by season’s end.