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Andre Igudola

Why The Philadelphia 76ers Are Struggling

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When the Philadelphia 76ers took the court back on February 8 they were sitting on an 18-7 record. The Sixers had a commanding lead in the Atlantic Division, where third in the Eastern Conference overall and there seemed little doubt they would fill one of the conference’s second-round playoff spots opposite Chicago or Miami. It’s been downhill since then, as the record is now 20-13. Thanks to even worse play of late by the Celtics, the lead in the Atlantic Division is still at four games, but New York is coming in the rearview mirror, the Sixers have slipped behind Orlando in the overall Eastern standings and their status as a clear top-four team is in doubt. TheSportsNotebook looks to examine what went wrong.

Let’s start by taking an overall look at Philadelphia as a team and then going into the specifics of the losing streak. The Sixers’ strengths are defense, taking care of the basketball and controlling tempo. They’re the best in the NBA in points allowed, and that number one ranking holds even when you adjust for tempo. On the flip side, even though they are only 17th in raw offensive production, the efficiency rankings shooting them up into the top eight. What this tells us is that while the Philly offense might not pile up big point totals due to a more deliberate tempo, they excel at getting a basket when they need to get it. Doug Collins’ team is also the best in the league in turnover ratio. The only real statistical weakness is rebounding, when they are 22nd.

Personnel-wise, the strength is in the backcourt with Lou Williams and Jrue Holiday and at small forward with Andre Iguodala. Collins can also turn to guard Jodie Meeks off the bench for some three-point shooting. Evan Turner, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft, hasn’t really come into his own. Up front, Iguodala is assisted by Thaddeus Young and a strong post presence in Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand. Right here, we’ll note that Hawes has missed the last few games, which can provide part of the explanation for the struggles, but he didn’t miss the entire bad stretch, nor should he be seen as an indispensable piece, at least if the Sixers are truly a division champ and top four team in the East.

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A look at the schedule shows that Philadelphia has drawn some tough teams. They lost home games to San Antonio, the LA Clippers and Dallas, while dumping road dates with Orlando and last night in Memphis. Even a loss in Minnesota on Sunday was hardly a terrible defeat. Taken individually, none of these defeats are all that alarming. Taken collectively, they suggest a team being exposed as a pretender.

Philadelphia lost to San Antonio on February 8 because they couldn’t stop guard Tony Parker, and they were beaten in free-throw scoring 21-7. Two nights later the Clips nipped them by a point, thanks to a little bit of a rebounding edge. Of note in both games is that the Sixers lost the turnover battle. It wasn’t a huge disparity (10-6 & 10-7, respectively). But perhaps it showed how much Collins’ team relies on winning this phase of the game, and the inability to stop an opposing guard is certainly a concern for a defensive-oriented team that relies on its backcourt.

The Sixers played a bad game in Orlando, and the Magic shot the lights out in a 103-87 win. Every team is going to have lousy nights and this is one we’ll just chuck in the trash. Philly came home to host Dallas for an ESPN audience last Friday night and lost 82-75 because they couldn’t hit a three-point shot to save their live, going 1-for-14 from behind the arc. So far we’ve covered four losses and the Sixers have yet to have a player step up and deliver a 20-point game.

Holiday answered the latter problem the next two games, the road trips to Minnesota and Memphis, but the Wolves consistently got to the line, while the Grizzlies hammered the Sixers on the boards.

If there’s something Philadelphia can take out of this as a positive it’s that except for last night in Memphis, teams have generally not exploited their rebounding deficiencies. This at least can reassure Collins that it’s not a case of fundamental flaws coming home to roost. What strikes me is the inability of individual players to really step up and take the reins. These games are there to be won—the losses to the Clippers and Wolves were by one point, and the Maverick game was there to be taken. I look at a lack of production from Iguodala as the most glaring flaw. And beyond that, if you go into the box scores of these games you see at least two, and often three starters, having literally no impact on the game.

The caliber of opponents on the schedule meant that Philadelphia wasn’t going to set the world on fire, but it’s not as though Chicago, Miami or Oklahoma City are anywhere to be found. If the Sixers just went to scrape into the playoffs and make another quick first-round exit, then there’s nothing to fear. But if you think this team is capable of making the next step—to first winning the Atlantic, then winning a first-round playoff series and then at least winning a couple games in a second-round series with Chicago or Miami, then something needs to change. And that something starts with Iguodala picking up his game and playing like a true emerging force.

A tough road game tonight in Houston awaits, so things might get worse before they get better. But the All-Star break means the 76ers have time to regroup mentally before coming back. A stretch of home games coming includes Oklahoma City and Chicago, and Boston is in Wells Fargo Arena on March 7. Time for Philly to start defending their home floor.

The Changing Of The Guard In The NBA Atlantic Division

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A lot of people, including myself, have been surprised that the Boston Celtics have opted to keep their Big Three of Ray Allen, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce together these last two seasons. After the Celts lost a seven-game series to the Lakers in the 2010 NBA Finals, I figured GM Danny Ainge would start the rebuilding process. Instead, Ainge has brought all three back not just once, but twice, opting only for minor tweaks around the edges.

So far this season, it’s not looking too good and all indications are that a changing of the guard is at hand in the Atlantic Division. It hasn’t been the expected team of the New York Knicks though. With the acquisition of Carmelo Anthony last February, this was supposed to be the time for New York to stand up. Instead it’s Philadelphia who’s off and running in the division. Today the Notebook breaks down the Sixers, Knicks and Celtics to see what might lie ahead. Please note that the rank beside each team below is their position in the Eastern Conference, not just the division and the top eight teams make the playoffs.

Philadelphia (10-3, T2nd): The 76ers do everything well on both sides of the floor, but they thing they do best of all is play defense, something that surely has Dr. J turning over in his grave (granted, he’s not dead, but you get the point). Philadelphia is the best in the league at defensive efficiency, which measures performance on a per-possession basis, not just overall points, thus adjusting for tempo. Doug Collins makes great use of his roster with eight players getting quality minutes. Philly gets scoring on the perimeter from two-guard Lou Williams, the best threat from three-point range. Evan Turner, a 6’7” off-guard creates matchup problems for opposing defenses and while he isn’t a threat from downtown, he’s still a solid scorer. Running the show is Jrue Holiday, the 21-year old point guard out of UCLA. Holiday is playing well, but I think we have to be red-flag a point guard this young, at least in terms of the 76ers ability to compete with Chicago or Miami.

The balanced depth continues up front, with Andre Igudola, probably the team’s best player, averaging 14 points/6 rebounds, although no one really rises above the rest on this team. Elton Brand gives a veteran presence down low, while young Spence Hawes and Thaddeus Young each score  in double-digits and rebound. The combination of the young point guard and lack of clear go-to player are the liabilities the Sixers face in big games, but their ability to put together solid sustained stretches of basketball can’t be doubted. They are going to be very tough to catch in this division, and will surely have homecourt advantage for the first round.

New York (6-7, 8th): Because the Knicks run the floor at a fast pace, they can look like a good offensive team, but the efficiency numbers suggest otherwise. When it comes to getting a basket when they really need it, New York is a below-average team. The positive side to that is the defense isn’t quite as mediocre as raw point totals make it look. What New York doesn’t have is quality depth, with only five players even averaging 24 minutes a game. Even if we give them Toney Douglas, who’s over 20 minutes, that’s still a thin rotation to survive a long season with.

Unsurprisingly, Carmelo Anthony is the go-to player on offense, with 26 ppg, but he’s not a big-time rebounder, nor does he distribute very well. It’s fair to wonder if he really makes those around him better and the team’s record only adds fuel to the fire. Amare Stoudamire and Tyson Chandler comprise a tough duo down low, both scoring and rebounding, and Chandler is a solid defensive force. The Knicks’ real problems are in the backcourt, where Iman Shumpert can chip in some offense, but doesn’t do well in playmaking. Landry Fields and Toney Douglas are both shooting the ball poorly. The Knicks’ season is entirely in the hands of the frontline, and while that can keep them on the playoff borderline and make them a good draw, it’s not going to make them a threat to win the Atlantic or get in the top four for homecourt advantage in the first playoff series. Which, in the NBA, likely means another early exit.

Boston (4-8, 9th): We can tell you how old the Celtics are—and the fact they have four regular players over 30 years old, while the Knicks and Sixers have one combined (Brand). But you’re a sports junkie and you already know that. What are the practical effects of the aging process? The first is that Boston’s trademark defense is in decline. This is another team where it takes the efficiency adjustment to tell the story. In points allowed, the C’s are a little above average. But throw in the tempo factor and they become below average. Even Boston’s best teams in this era weren’t offensive machines, so this is a major problem. The offense also becomes worse when you adjust stats for tempo.

Rajon Rondo is the best player on the team, and has become a good shooter. He’s not going to drain the three-ball, but at 50 percent from the floor you can no longer just pack everything back and give him an open 12-foot look. Allen is still having a solid offensive year and his 57% shooting from behind the arc remains astonishing. Pierce and Garnett are still pretty good players, while Brandon Bass can chip in some help off the bench. But there’s no real star up front right now, and with the overall lack of team defense, it’s tough to see the Celtics turning this thing around. I know the mantra in Boston is to just save the legs for the playoffs. But the NBA playoffs are not the NCAA Tournament. Even if you get in, that’s still a long two-month run to go if you want to win big. Boston’s not winning big and even making the playoffs has to be seen as a 50/50 call right now. As a Celts fan, I’m trying to take the positive outlook—this means the games being played now are meaningful, so I can pay attention to the C’s now and then move the focus to the Bruins come springtime and the NHL playoffs.