The New York Yankeeshave played their way back onto the radar in the American League playoff race, thanks to a four-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays in the early part of last week, the latest example of the Pinstripes taking advantage of soft schedule. Even with losing a weekend series in Tampa, the Yanks are within 3 ½ games in a wild-card race that has five teams jousting for two spots and Derek Jeter is expected to return to the lineup today.
New York’s arrival back onto the AL playoff race landscape, replacing faltering Kansas City in the wild-card picture is the most significant development of the past week. Here’s a rundown on other notable news in the race…
AL East:Boston came up with a clutch week out west, going 4-2 in games at the Giants and Dodgers. The Red Sox got their own positive injury news in that Clay Bucholz made a rehab outing. Tampa Bay is still neck-and-neck with Boston, as the Rays had their own big week. Tampa won four of six against Baltimore and New York, and they’ll have Matt Moore make a rehab start this week, with his anticipated return next week.
AL Central: Detroit briefly stumbled in the early part of last week, losing a home series with Minnesota. But the Tigers swept the Metsin New York over the weekend and maintained a comfortable six-game lead on the Cleveland Indians. Detroit catcher Alex Avila also went on a minor league rehab stint as he recovers from a concussion.
AL West: I just have to wonder if Texas is going to regret this recent stretch of games before it’s all over. The Rangers again lost a winnable series, dropping two of three to the Chicago White Sox over the weekend. Texas is now 3-5 in recent games against the White Sox, Brewers and Mariners.
The Rangers have been saved by the fact they swept Houston, and Oakland keeps struggling. But the lead is only 2 ½ games, and after Oakland gets through this coming week at Detroit and home against Tampa, the Oakland schedule is going to lighten dramatically. With the exception of head-to-head showdowns between the AL West leaders, which begin on Labor Day.
Wild-Card: Last week, TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage broke down the Baltimore Orioles, as they entered a huge 15-game stretch against contenders. After one week, it’s too close to call. The Birds dropped two of three to Tampa, but won a pair this weekend against Oakland and are still within two games of the last wild-card. The Orioles’ big stretch continues in Fenway and the Bronx this week.
Cleveland is only a game and a half out, and with their three-game sweep of the Angels and series win over the Twins, the Tribe seems to have stabilized. They’re a game and a half back of Oakland and can expect starting pitcher Cory Kluber back from the disabled list in early September.
The American League playoff race remains by far the more interesting of the two leagues, although it picked up a little clearer focus this week, thanks mainly to the results of the big five-game weekend series between the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals.
Detroit won three of the five games at Comerica Park, maintaining a lead of seven games over the Cleveland Indians and eight and a half over Kansas City in the AL Central. It was as good an opportunity as any for this race to tighten and it didn’t. The Tigers have gone 7-2 in their nine recent games against the Indians and Royals and kept this race under firm control.
The results also meant that Kansas City slipped six games out of the second wild-card spot, now tied with the New York Yankees at 64-59. This is going to sound nit-picky, but I’ve got five games as the borderline for considered “on the radar” in the playoff race. I’m not saying a team more than five back is out of it, but they need at least one really good week of baseball just put themselves in the thick of it and then that has to be sustained. The Royals and Yanks each have some work to do simply to get on the radar.
The races in the AL West and AL East remain tight. Texas holds a half-game lead over Oakland coming off a week that both teams missed opportunities. Texas lost three of five in a week that saw them play the Milwaukee Brewers and Seattle Mariners. Oakland lost a series to the Houston Astros, though at least the A’s rebounded to take a key weekend series from the Cleveland Indians.
Cleveland is 4 ½ games back of the wild-card, still not recovered from losing four straight home games to Detroit recently, and the Baltimore Orioles are still nestled in between everybody, three back of the final playoff berth. The Orioles, with a crucial two-week stretch ahead, drew the attention of TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coveragetoday.
The Orioles have also played their way back onto the AL East radar, winning consecutive games over Colorado to rescue what had been a tough week. But the week was even tougher for frontrunning Boston, who lost series to both Toronto and New York. Tampa Bay is hanging a game back, and that sets up perfectly for the big Rays-Orioles series from Camden Yards that starts tonight. The series opener will be on MLB Network and the Wednesday finale will be on ESPN.
The American League looks be the league most under threat of serious alteration to its playoff landscape when MLB announces its BioGenesis suspensions later today, as is expected. Most of the name players involved are from AL teams—from Alex Rodriguez to Nelson Cruz to Jhonny Peralta to Bartolo Colon. So as we wait, our MLB coverage gives a summation of how the race looks right now, including injuries and the schedule ahead.
AL EAST: Boston had a solid weekend, not just getting a home series win over Arizona, but doing so behind a sterling pitching debut from Jake Peavy on Saturday night. The Red Sox stay a game ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays, who got a pair of one-run wins in San Francisco. Boston starts a 10-game road trip tonight, beginning in Houston, while Tampa goes west for games with NL West contenders Arizona and Los Angeles.
Clay Bucholz is still no closer to returning, as the most positive thing being reported is that he’s close to being able to throw off a mound. Tampa Bay reliever Jesse Crain, just acquired from the White Sox, is also not any closer to getting healthy. The Rays do have Alex Cobb on rehab now, and Matt Moore remains on track for a mid-August return.
AL CENTRAL: Detroit and Cleveland are sizzling, and were it not for the BioGenesis talk, their four-game series starting tonight in Jacobs Field would be the talk of baseball. Both took advantage of weak opponents this past weekend, with the Tigers sweeping the White Sox and the Indians taking a pair in Miami.
Both have reasons for a bit of concern. Ubaldo Jiminez was hit hard in Cleveland’s Friday loss to a lousy Marlins team, and for Detroit, Miguel Cabrera is still dealing with abdominal injury. It’s day-to-day, but I’ve said before and I’ll say again—is this going to mean a decline in his ability to drive the ball for power even he’s in the lineup every day?
The Tigers are 2 ½ games up as the big series begins. Looking ahead to the weekend, Detroit visits the Bronx, while Cleveland hosts the Angels. The Indians have fallen apart in the second half, both last year and the year prior, but that was before Terry Francona was in the dugout.
AL WEST: Texas came up big this weekend, winning two of three in Oakland, capped off with Derek Holland’s 4-0 shutout win on Sunday. The Rangers nudged to within 2 ½ games of the lead. And while they await bad news regarding Cruz, they now have all three of their injured veteran pitchers in the rehab process.
Colby Lewis is expected back middle of this month, Matt Harrison at the end of the month and Neftali Feliz early in September. I’m skeptical of their ability to just step right in and pitch well given how long they’ve been out, but if they do, think of the sustained pressure that’s going to put on Oakland and the entire wild-card race.
Texas goes on the road this week, starting in Anaheim and then playing four in Houston. And the Rangers don’t play a team with a winning record until they’re back in Oakland on Labor Day. The A’s meanwhile are in Cincinnati for a two-game set starting tomorrow, and then go to Toronto for a four-game wraparound series that goes into next Monday.
WILD-CARD PICTURE: Tampa Bay has a comfortable four-game cushion here, and then you have Cleveland and Texas within a half-game of each other for the #2 spot. Here’s where the Baltimore Orioles come into the picture, just a game and a half out in spite of a disappointing weekend that saw them drop two of three in Seattle.
The Kansas City Royals got two wins over the Mets in New York this weekend and continued to hang on at 4 ½ out, with a home series against Minnesota starting and then a big four-game set at home against Boston to finish the week.
And the New York Yankees missed an opportunity to gain some ground, by losing two of three in San Diego. The Yanks stay 4 ½ out themselves, and have to hope that at least the lowly Chicago White Soxcan provide relief starting tonight before New York goes home to play Detroit.
Curtis Granderson made it back into the everyday lineup, but just as that happened, Derek Jeter left it, with a calf problem that requires an MRI. That’s what happens when you get old. Nothing stays healthy all at once, whether you’re a 40-something individual trying to play pickup basketball like me, or an aging collective lineup like the Yanks. Did I just compare myself to the Yankees? I feel like I need a shower.
CURRENT AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF BRACKET
Wild Card Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay Divisional Round: WC Winner at (1) Boston, (3)Oakland at (2)Detroit
Down the stretch they come! With thirty days left to the end of the MLB regular season, 15 teams are in legitimate contention for a playoff berth and four of the six division titles look genuinely up for grabs. With Labor Day baseball about an hour away as this goes online let’s take a look at the landscape for the MLB playoff race.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST
NY Yankees: 76-57
Baltimore: 74-59
Tampa Bay: 73-61
AL CENTRAL
Detroit: 72-61
ChiSox: 72-61
AL WEST
Texas: 79-54
Oakland: 76-57
LA Angels: 71-63
WILD-CARD
Oakland/Baltimore
Tampa Bay: 1.5 back
AL Central runner-up: 2 back
LA Angels: 3.5 back
The surprises that are the Oakland A’s and Baltimore Orioles can be summarized by this—if you were in Las Vegas this March, and stepped up to the window to bet either team to go Over their preseason win projections, you are already eligible to collect. The A’s and O’s have already exceeded informed expectations and not only would they be the wild-card game if the season ended today, each has improbably launched pushes at the division crown. Oakland has won nine in a row to put the heat on Texas, while Baltimore captured a weekend series in New York to close within two games of the Yanks.
New York or Texas each has significant question marks in their starting rotations, meaning we can’t just assume they’ll right the ship in September. Certainly the Yanks and Rangers have the offense and they have the crunch-time experience that they can step it up and pull right back away. But when you don’t have confidence in what you’re going to get from the starting pitching, nothing is for certain. I already felt like this would turn the AL playoffs into a shootout where anyone had a chance, but I can’t say I was expecting the AL East and AL West races to tighten. With the Yankees opening the week by playing three games in Tampa, then closing with four more in Baltimore, crunch time is certainly here for Joe Girardi’s team.
We might further add that given how tight the wild-card race if New York or Texas slips from their perch, even the one-game showdown is not a guaranteed fallback. Detroit swept Chicago to pull even in the AL Central and it also means the two teams are each right in the wild-card race. Tampa Bay is right there. And the Angels, with all that talent in the everyday lineup and the starting rotation can at least know that the shorter the season becomes the less that bullpen depth—the Halos’ big flaw—matters.
The Yanks-Rays is the highlight series of the early week and will be on MLB-TV this afternoon and ESPN tomorrow night, but don’t overlook the Angels-A’s battle out west. The AL Central rivals play the bottom of the division, as the Tigers host Cleveland and the White Sox have Minnesota coming to town. Kansas City, another AL Central also-ran, hosts Texas. And Buck Showalter’s Orioles have to keep their focus after the emotional weekend in New York when they go to Toronto. With these games sandwiched in between the seven battles with the Yanks it’ll be interesting to see how the youthful Birds do with keeping focus on the road.
*****************
NATIONAL LEAGUE
NL EAST
Washington: 81-52
Atlanta: 75-59
NL CENTRAL
Cincinnati: 82-53
St. Louis: 72-62
Pittsburgh: 70-63
NL WEST
San Francisco: 76-58
LA Dodgers: 72-63
WILD-CARD
Atlanta/St. Louis
LA Dodgers: 0.5 back
Pittsburgh: 1.5 back
If the postseason started today the wild-card game would be St. Louis visiting Atlanta. This would be a one-game battle that brought together the two teams involved in last year’s crazy race to the finish line, with the Cards completing a historic comeback from 10.5 games back in late August. It would involve the defending World Series champions. And, by the way, it would be played in Atlanta for potentially the final game of Chipper Jones’ soon-to-be Hall of Fame career. At that point I think Bud Selig gives himself a pat on the back and says “Yes, I like this new concept.”
The Dodgers have slumped since the mega-trade with Boston and allowed San Francisco to open up some room in the NL West, but just a half-game off the pace set by St. Louis, and with the best pitcher of any National League contender in Clayton Kershaw, plus Josh Beckett, the Dodgers have the rotation best suited to playoff-type games—at least among the wild-card teams. Now it’s going to be about whether the Adrian Gonzalez/Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier trio can produce the runs and if Don Mattingly can manage his way through the late innings now that Kenley Jansen is gone for the year.
Most fans probably heard the announcement yesterday that September 12 is now official as the shutdown date for Stephen Strasburg. With Washington comfortably ahead in the NL East race this likely doesn’t cost the Nats the division title, but the combination of Strasburg sitting down and Joey Votto returning means you have to pencil in Cincinnati for the top spot in the NL playoffs.
As far as matchups go the early part of this week, it’s kind of blasé. None of the seven teams contending go head-to-head with each other. Pittsburgh is the one I’d circle as facing the must-win spot. They’ve got struggling pitching, they’ve got both the Dodgers and Cardinals to beat out and they’ve got the Astros coming into the Steel City. If ever there were games you had to win, the next three days with woeful Houston have to qualify.
*****************
SPORTSNOTEBOOK PREDICTIONS
AL EAST: Tampa Bay—When Mariano Rivera got hurt, I thought the Rays would take off as soon as Evan Longoria got back. I didn’t think that would take all summer, but Longoria is back, the margin is still 3.5 games and the Rays’ starting pitching is the best in baseball.
AL CENTRAL: Detroit—After all the ups and downs, the Tigers are back to even with the superstar talent in the lineup (Miguel Cabrera/Prince Fielder) in the rotation (Justin Verlander) and in the dugout (Jim Leyland), you have to like them to finally fulfill preseason expectations.
AL WEST: Texas—Having won nine straight, Oakland is too hot not to cool down for just a few days and that’s all it will take to give the Rangers the breathing room they need to hold off the charge. Texas also takes the #1 seed in the AL playoffs.
WILD-CARD GAME: Oakland-NY Yanks—I really want to pick Baltimore, and they’re starting pitching is getting better as the season wears on, but I’m really curious how they react to this sandwich series against Toronto and then having all the expectations of the home crowd coming up in the four-game set with New York over the weekend.
NL EAST: Washington—the margin’s too big to think otherwise.
NL CENTRAL: Cincinnati—Ditto.
NL WEST: San Francisco—Close to ditto. 4.5 games is not insignificant at this point in the year and the pitching of Frisco guards against a sustained losing streak.
WILD-CARD GAME—LA Dodgers-Atlanta—As much I like the Cards-Braves scenario outlined above, I like Beckett to pitch better down the stretch and form a 1-2 punch with Kershaw that gets the Dodgers over the top.
No two teams in the American League have been bigger surprises than the Baltimore Orioles and the Oakland A’s. The Orioles, in spite of sluggish play through the summer continue to set the pace for the AL’s second wild-card spot, with a 46-41 record. Oakland isn’t far behind at 45-43. TheSportsNotebook takes a look at both teams here on the first weekend of the seasons second half…
Baltimore (46-41): Battle through five and then win it in the end. That’s got to be the war chant in Baltimore this season. The offense isn’t that good, ranking just 10th in the American League in runs scored, in spite of being a fairly hitter-friendly environment at Camden Yards. The starting pitching has been inconsistent, lacks depth and is currently a mess. But the bullpen is the best in the AL, if not all of baseball and if you don’t finish off the Orioles by the sixth inning, they’re going to battle you to the end.
Jim Johnson, with 26 saves and a 1.41 ERA is one of the game’s top closers and Buck Showalter has put together a very deep setup team around him, one that’s led by Pedro Strop and his buck-59 ERA. You can mix in Darren O’Day, a veteran of Texas’ recent pennant runs, and Luis Ayala and that’s a core four who have been very good. Showalter can also turn to arms like Kevin Gregg, who’ve been reasonably consistent.
Jason Hammell and Wei-Yin Chen have anchored the rotation this season, with sub-4.00 ERAs, something not easy to do in a hitter’s park against a steady diet of AL East lineups. But Hammell now has a knee injury and is expected to do some disabled list time, and no one else has stepped up for Showalter. The manager can hope that Miguel Gonzalez, with a 1.93 ERA in 18 IP will fill one role. Ultimately though, the Orioles need some of the young pitchers who have done to the Baltimore-to-Norfolk shuttle these past couple years, with repeated Triple-A stints to finally stabilize as major league starters. I’m talking about Brian Matusz, who has been working to regain his solid 2010 form and is probably on his way back to the big leagues to replace Hammell. Or Zach Britton, who’s missed this season with injury and is building up his velocity in Norfolk right now. Another wild-card might be Chris Tillman. With 36 career starts and a 5.58 ERA my instinct was to dismiss him before double-checking and realizing he’s only 24 years old. Tillman will get a chance to be in the rotation again starting next week. Britton, Matusz and Tillman have to succeed—or at least two of them do—for the long-term future and it wouldn’t hurt if that long-term future started around now.
Oakland (45-43): Billy Beane’s team is the case of the extremes, with the worst offense in the league and the best pitching, although given the pitcher-friendly dimensions of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, the team probably isn’t literally that polarized. But close enough. Like Baltimore they have a strong and deep bullpen and like Baltimore they’re counting on some returning arms in July and August to give much-needed help to the rotation.
Ryan Cook has earned the closer’s job here recently and has a 1.37 ERA with nine saves. He made the All-Star team and will likely be one of the game’s top ninth-inning arms in the second half. Grant Balfour, Jordan Norberto and Jerry Blevins have been consistent around him, and young additions like Sean Doolittle and Pedro Figueroa have given even more depth to a unit that makes the A’s tough to beat from the sixth inning on.
Starting pitching here is in pretty good shape, with Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffn and Travis Blackley being the latest young starters Billy Beane has brought up, and added them to Tommy Milone, who’s logged a workhorse-like 114 IP. Bartolo Colon has been a pleasant veteran addition, but a 3.80 ERA in this park isn’t spectacular and Colon’s history suggest nagging injuries are a virtual lock.
What Beane is banking in is the return of Brandon McCarthy, who had a 6-3 record with a 2.54 ERA when he hit the disabled list, along with Dallas Braden and Brett Anderson whose season-long recoveries are said to be progressing well and will likely have them pitching again in the next month. Beane will have depth in starting pitching and room to add a bat, which is team desperately needs.
Make that two or three bats, because rightfielder Josh Reddick, with a .348/.526 stat line for his on-base percentage/slugging percentage has carried the team. Seth Smith has started to pick it up, as his power gradually rises, up to .447 slugging and keeping Yoenis Cespedes healthy for the second half will be a big boost. As will first baseman Brandon Moss, if he does anything close to his current pace of 11 home runs in 90 at-bats. But the team needs second baseman Jemile Weeks to return to the form he showed in his 2011 rookie year and get on base. Because while the players mentioned are good, they aren’t get-on-my-back-and-I’ll-carry-you kind of talent. Everyone has to pull their weight and Weeks is the most flagrant offender of those who are not.
Baltimore has similar offensive problems, although they got Nick Markakis back from the disabled list this weekend. The rightfielder already has a respectable stat line of .339/.469 and his history suggests the OBP can go up further. They Orioles picked up Jim Thome to give some power and a veteran presence at the DH spot and they’re getting a very good year from Adam Jones and a pretty good one from Matt Wieters. What the O’s could use is a hot second half from shortstop J.J. Hardy, whose meager stat line of .258/.380 wasn’t what the front office had in mind when they gave him a three-year deal for $21 million last summer.
Oakland started the second half with two wins in Minnesota, while Baltimore split two with Detroit, including an epic 13-inning win yesterday where they rallied in both the 11th and 13th and won a walk-off home run by Taylor Teagarden, the backup catcher making his second at-bat of the season. After closing out those series today, the Orioles hit the road, while Oakland gets marquee opponents coming in. Texas and New York visit the Bay Area for a total of six games, while the Orioles play eight in Minnesota and Cleveland. The teams go head-to-head in Baltimore on July 27, as the trade deadline approaches and each front office evaluates its options.
AL Central: Detroit briefly stumbled in the early part of last week, losing a home series with Minnesota. But the Tigers swept the Mets in New York over the weekend and maintained a comfortable six-game lead on the Cleveland Indians. Detroit catcher Alex Avila also went on a minor league rehab stint as he recovers from a concussion.