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American League MVP

The Wide-Open Race For The American League MVP

The race for the American League MVP seems to have more candidates than the race for the Republican presidential nomination. There are players having great years, but whose teams are, as of now, out of the playoffs. The players from the first-place teams don’t quite seem MVP-level.

There are good candidates at starting pitcher. Here’s a snapshot of how the American League MVP race looks, with 16 possible choices, all of whom would either be good picks right now, or wouldn’t need much of a push.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS
Miguel Cabrera (1B, Detroit)
Mike Trout (CF, LA Angeles)

Cabrera’s numbers are dazzling, a .454 on-base percentage/.589 slugging percentage. With a batting average of .350, 15 home runs and 53 RBI, Miggy is again in position to make a run at the Triple Crown. Trout is sitting on numbers of .390/583 and has hit 20 home runs.

These two players have combined to win the last three AL MVPs, but the Tigers But the Tigers are looking up at Kansas City and Minnesota in the AL Central and the Angels continue to lag behind Houston in the AL West. For a lot of voters, this alone will disqualify both.

THE SLUGGING DHs
Prince Fielder (Texas)
Nelson Cruz (Seattle)

Fielder’s stats are .415/.532 and he’s been instrumental in lifting the Rangers back into contention. Cruz is on .368/.552 and has a much less hitter-friendly environment than Fielder. But if you disqualify Trout because his Angels would be out of the playoffs, then two teams that are trailing Los Angeles in the AL West are even worse candidates.

Furthermore, there is a historic bias against voting for a DH—and I think a fair one—given their status as part-time players. If either one of these guys sizzles and carries their team to the postseason though, it could get interesting.

THE IMPROBABLE YANKEE SUCCESS STORIES
Alex Rodriguez (DH)
Mark Teixeira (1B)

I want to be ill in writing both of these names here, but if the Yankees end up winning the AL East, the revival of these two is probably going to be the biggest reason. A-Rod’s profile fits with the DHs noted above, as he’s .389/.520, while Teixeira is at .356/.524, with 18 home runs.

The problem I have with both—beyond their existence as baseball players—is the extreme hitter-friendly nature of Yankee Stadium. But anti-NYY bias didn’t stop me from believing last year that Masahiro Tanaka should have been a strong candidate prior to his getting hurt and the team fading from the race. That’s because I give pitchers more credit for succeeding in the Stadium than I do hitters.

MUSCLE UP THE MIDDLE
Jason Kipnis (2B, Cleveland)
Stephen Vogt (C, Oakland)

Offense up the middle is at a premium, and therefore those who produce big numbers at these spots are, by definition, more valuable. Kipnis is at .424/.510, while Vogt, in the pitcher-oriented Oakland park is on .394/.532 and tied with Cabrera with 53 RBI. And if you’re a sabermetric type who believes in the whole Wins Above Replacement (WAR) stat, Kipnis is the best in the American League.

Of course the problem with both players comes when you look at their teams. Both are struggling badly and dragging their otherwise legitimate MVP candidates down with them.

A ROYAL FLUSH
Mike Moustakas (3B)
Alex Gordon (LF)

If you believe that to the victor goes the spoils, then it has to start in Kansas City. Moustakas is at .369/.463 and Gordon on .390/.443. They’re the best two candidates on what’s been the best team in the American League.  Continue reading “The Wide-Open Race For The American League MVP” »

9 Thoughts On The American League Landscape

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The MLB regular season has 6 ½ weeks left as we go into Friday night’s games. Here’s nine thoughts on the state of the American League, from the race for playoff spots to individual awards…

*The MVP & Cy Young Awards appear to be all but in the books. Los Angeles Angels’ centerfielder Mike Trout is running away with the MVP, and Seattle Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez is set to win a second Cy Young. The injury to New York Yankee ace Masahiro Tanaka stripped the drama from the Cy race, and Trout has not had serious competition for the MVP in several weeks.

Baseball*The Kansas City Royals have surged to the top of the AL Central, taking a half-game lead over the Detroit Tigers. Let’s keep in mind though, that over the last ten games, the Royals are 9-1 and the Tigers are 4-6. Those trends aren’t going to hold, so the Kansas City stock is artificially high. The Royals should be able to win this division, but I have every confidence that KC manager Ned Yost can help Detroit reverse their negative momentum.

*As prophesied in TheSportsNotebook, the Baltimore Orioles have broken open the AL East, and while power is this team’s strength—they lead the AL in home runs—it’s pitching that’s driven the Birds to a 7 ½ game lead. Chris Tillman and Wei-Yin Chen in particular, are on good rolls and it’s made up for the fact that Chris Davis never has started hitting. Strong pitching and a second half Oriole surge—surely, the late Earl Weaver is somewhere smiling.

READ 9 THOUGHTS ON THE NATIONAL LEAGUE LANDSCAPE

*The Los Angeles Angels have been hamstrung by poor bullpen work the last few years and the acquisition of Huston Street has helped everything fall into place for the Halo relief corps. Street is having an outstanding year, and Joe Smith is perfect in the setup role. Mike Scioscia managed this group as well as he could for four months, and the arrival of Street has finally made the skipper’s life easier. It’s why I think the Angels are going to ultimately win the AL West.

*In saying that, I don’t mean to diss the Oakland A’s, who are still one of the top four or five teams in baseball. How good does the Oakland offense have to be to lead the league in runs scored, while playing in one of the AL’s worst hitters’ parks? The corner infield, Brandon Moss at first base and Josh Donaldson at third, have combined for 48 home runs. Put them in New York, both the Stadium and the media market, and watch their numbers and profile soar.

*The Seattle Mariners are set up to be the hard-luck team of the league this year, stuck in a division with the Angels and A’s. Maybe the M’s can still steal the second wild-card spot. If they do, Robinson Cano will correctly get a lot of credit, as he’s got a .397 on-base percentage/.469 slugging. But don’t overlook third baseman Kyle Seager, at .344/.476. They’ve helped just get enough support to the league’s best pitching staff.

*And yet another story coming out of the AL West is an individual one. Houston Astros’ second baseman Jose Altuve has flirted with the notion of a breakout year since 2012, and now it’s arrived. Altuve is hitting .337, and on a pace to win the batting title, with Cano a full ten points back.

*Don’t blame the retirement of Mariano Rivera for the New York Yankees being four back in the wild-card race with multiple teams to leapfrog. And while it’s understandable if you blame injuries to a decimated rotation, make sure to point a finger at some bad free agent decisions this offseason. Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran have been unproductive, and Jacoby Ellsbury has been nowhere worth the seven-year $153 million contract. The Yankees should have been at least able to score runs, and thus far, they haven’t.

*Who’s Manager of the Year? The managers of the three best teams all have good cases, Bob Melvin (Oakland), Scioscia (LAA) and Buck Showalter (Baltimore). I’m leaning Showalter right now—he’s 69-50 in spite of Davis doing nothing, Manny Machado being hurt or unproductive for much of the early year (and now back on the DL to the end of this month) and a rotation that was spotty for the first half. But I respect the case for Scioscia, and Seattle’s Lloyd McClendon could be a darkhorse in this race.

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The American League MVP Landscape

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The race for the American League MVP award clearly centers on Los Angeles Angels’ outfielder Mike Trout. If you’re one who has a bias against starting pitchers, there’s frankly no argument against Trout based on the season up to today.

If you share the view of TheSportsNotebook, and are more broad-minded in your MVP mindset, then there’s a couple worthy challengers. In either case, any discussion of the American League MVP landscape has to begin with Trout.

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Trout has an on-base percentage of .406 and a slugging percentage of .611 coming into the Fourth of July games. His defense, while not a significant asset, is at least average. On a team where Albert Pujols is in decline and Josh Hamilton spent a good chunk of time on the disabled list, Trout has been the leader in helping the Angels to a 48-36 record.

American League MVPThat record would have them hosting the American League wild-card game if the season ended today, it’s third-best in the AL and still has the Angels right on the heels of the Oakland A’s, who merely have the best record in baseball.

Thus, by any reasonable measurement—statistical production, value to the lineup and being on a playoff team—Trout is the top position player in the American League thus far in the 2014 MLB season and if you don’t want to include starting pitchers in the conversation, he would have be your runaway AL MVP choice.

But if you do want to include starting pitchers—and I do, because even though they only pitch every fifth day, their impact on the games they start more than make up for it—then you need to look at the cases for Felix Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners and the New York Yankees’ Masahiro Tanaka.

Seattle would be the second wild-card out of the American League based on today’s standings and the best ERA in the league is the reason why. King Felix is 10-2 with a 2.10 ERA, and has pitched 128 innings. The latter two categories lead the league and the first has him as one of just five American League pitchers with double-digit wins.

No starting pitcher in major league baseball has more wins than Tanaka, who picked up #12 last night. Nor is this a case of a Yankee starter riding the bats to wins. This year’s New York team is mediocre offensively, above-average at best in the bullpen and the rotation behind Tanaka is spotty and injury-riddled.

Tanaka also has a dazzling 2.27 ERA and has thrown 122 innings. Furthermore, Yankee Stadium is perhaps the most hitter-friendly park in the American League. New York is sitting on .500 coming into today, at 42-42. There’s only reason this team has a puncher’s chance to make the playoffs and it’s because of Tanaka.

I recall an episode of the ESPN show First Take on the second day of the baseball season, where pundit Skip Bayless opined that Tanaka would have to win thirty games if the Yankees were to make the playoffs. A friend and I dismissed it as Bayless’ usual attempt to get attention by saying something dramatic. It turns out that he may be right, and that in either case, Tanaka might at least get 22-25 wins, an amazing accomplishment in today’s pitch count culture.

Therefore, I give Tanaka the edge over King Felix as the top pitcher thus far, and would narrow the debate for AL MVP to the Yankee starter and Trout. And frankly, I think I have to give a slight edge to Tanaka.

The reason is simple—while Trout is having a great year and meets a reasonable definition of “most valuable”, Tanaka has gone one step further. He has, in effect, told the Yankees “hop on my back and I’ll carry you.” If they end up making the postseason, he’s a lock. And even if they finish where they’re at right now—around .500, just outside the playoffs, he’s still the reason New York fans have hope on the Fourth of July.

I’ll also give you an intangible reason to go with Tanaka—as a Boston Red Sox fan, my heart sinks a little when I hear that Tanaka is scheduled to pitch tonight. And I think longingly of just how bad the Yankees would be this year if they didn’t have him to turn to every fifth day.

So let’s go with a Fourth of July ballot of Tanaka, Trout and King Felix, in that order. Here’s a few other contenders that are close enough to make a serious run at the award in the coming months…

*The Toronto Blue Jays’ tandem of Jose Bautista (.429 OBP/.535 slugging) and Edwin Encarcion (.369/.599) have keyed an offense that kept the Blue Jays in first place in the AL East much of the first half and they’re still only a percentage point behind the Baltimore Orioles coming into today.

What hurts them, at least in my view, is that they cancel each other out—neither one really carries his team in the way the leading three candidates do. It’s great for team success, but should hurt in the MVP discussion.

*Two Detroit Tigers are having big years. After a slow start, Miguel Cabrera, who has won this award the last two years, is up to .374/.551 in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the AL. Victor Martinez has a stat line of .389/.600, a display of offensive balance second only to Trout.

Martinez is a DH, and that’s a position I do have a bias against, since it basically means you just have to hit four or five times and then go into the air-conditioned clubhouse on a hot night to watch video of your at-bats. And yes, as a Red Sox fan, I’ve never pushed David Ortiz for MVP for this same reason. I will be very open to pushing Cabrera if his upward trajectory continues.

*Nelson Cruz in Baltimore and Jose Abreu for the Chicago White Sox each have great power numbers (Cruz has 26 home runs and Abreu is slugging .624). Cruz has lifted the Orioles into first place and Abreu is keeping the White Sox on the map.

The issues here pertain to on-base percentage—Cruz at .348 and Abreu at .331 aren’t liabilities, but they are still more pure power hitters than all-around offensive players. What’s more, Abreu has missed time due to injury and Cruz does a good bit of DHing. Abreu can make up for the lost time in the second half, but Cruz will really have to overwhelm offensively to make up for being a mostly one-dimensional player.

*Let’s also keep an eye on Oakland A’s first baseman Brandon Moss, with his stat line of .363/.537, while playing in another pitcher-friendly park and being on the team with the best record in baseball.

All of these players are viable threats to make a run at American League MVP. But sitting here today, my edge goes to Masahiro Tanaka.

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MLB Coverage: 2013 American League Awards

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There is still technically one more game left in the American League regular season, as Texas and Tampa Bay play a tiebreaker game for the final playoff berth tonight. But with the 162-game schedule in the books, TheSportsNotebook’s MLB coverage is set to close out the regular season with the final choices for the major individual awards in the American League.

We previously picked the American League All-Star team, covering not just the everyday positions, but a full starting rotation and complete bullpen. Those selections will serve as the basis for the top awards.


MVP: Miguel Cabrera (3B, Detroit): It was an easy pick to make, even if it’s tough to leave Chris Davis in second place, when the Baltimore first baseman would have triumphed over any of the National League candidates. Cabrera blew away Davis in on-base percentage (.442 to .370) and even nipped him in slugging percentage (.636 to .634) in spite of Davis’ 53 home runs.

In the more traditional stats, Cabrera’s batting average was sixty points higher and he was within one of Davis in RBIs. The only definitive edge Davis had was in home runs, which ended 53-44. And in spite of Cabrera being rested some in September for a nagging abdominal injury, they ended up fairly close in at-bats, with 555 for Miggy and 584 for Davis. Any hope for trumping Cabrera would have to be built around being on the field more, and the advantage for Davis was just not substantial enough.

We also haven’t touched on the biggest difference–Miguel Cabrera is putting together these extraordinary seasons, including his MVP run of 2012, while hitting in the perhaps the worst hitters’ park in the American League, the vast Comerica Park. While Camden Yards isn’t Yankee Stadium, it’s still most definitely geared toward hitters. If Cabrera and Davis played in the same park, the gap would be even more pronounced.

Ultimately it boils down to the fact that Miguel Cabrera has spent the last two seasons operating on a different plane than the rest of the world. Chris Davis just had the misfortune to be stuck in the same league at the same time.

Cy Young: Max Scherzer (SP, Detroit): I’m not one who automatically defaults to Scherzer because of his 21-3 record and ignores everything else. He did get a lot of run support and the same argument used on Cabrera’s behalf–the dimensions of Comerica Park–work against Scherzer. But the Tiger starter overcomes these caveats.

Scherzer’s 2.90 ERA is still in the top five of the American League, so it’s not like he just rode the offenses coattails. Even if you want to adjust him downward for park effects–which is quite fair–he has to be given credit for his 214 innings pitched, also top five in the AL. With Detroit having bullpen issues all year long, how important is that Scherzer was going deep into games consistently?


Finally, the legitimate contenders, Bartolo Colon in Oakland and Hisashi Iwakuma in Seattle are also in pitchers’ parks. There was just not a good contender for the award in a hitters’ park, not after Boston’s Clay Bucholz got hurt in June and New York’s Hiroki Kuroda fell apart in the final six weeks.

And that whole 21-3 thing? I might not automatically default to it, but it’s still pretty damn impressive. Let’s not let follow the regrettable path of the sabermetrics community, who has gone so far in studying other ways of measuring pitchers (as they should) that they’ve completely dismissed this little thing called winning games.

Manager Of The Year (Terry Francona, Cleveland): I know there’s a great argument for John Farrell, who took Boston from last place to first place. But the Red Sox were also a franchise with a long recent history of success and a lot of the players from that success still in place. Give Farrell great credit for restoring the clubhouse culture, turning around Bucholz and Lester and piecing together a bullpen from next to nothing.

But you want to talk about a losing culture, how about coming to Cleveland. This organization hadn’t enjoyed a winning season since 2007. They play in a city that oozes sports losing. On the field, they had no pitching. Francona turned around the career of Ubaldo Jiminez and restored the career of Steve Kazmir, en route to making the playoffs.

Farrell is to this debate what Davis was to the MVP discussion. A worthy contender on his own merits and one who would deserve to win more often than not. But Tito is to managers this year what Miguel Cabrera is to players. In a world all his own.

Read The Choices For The 2013 National League Awards

The American League MVP Vote

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It’s time to wrap up the regular season in baseball and that means picking award winners. With the postseason All-Star team already picked, we’ll focus here on the American League MVP. The mainstream media storyline tells you the race is about whether you like Detroit’s Miguel Cabrera and his Triple Crown, or Los Angeles’ Mike Trout, who dominates the newer stats, like WAR (Wins Above Replacement). I’m picking Cabrera, and let me tell you why.

I don’t buy that this is about “old stats vs. new stats.” Stats like on-base percentage and slugging percentage might not be new anymore, but they’re certainly not traditional and are definitely a part of the sabermetrics revolution. Cabrera dominates in slugging percentage, leading the league at .606, and he’s fourth in on-base percentage at .393, trailing Trout by only six points—certainly close enough for his overwhelming edge in power to hold sway.

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You can certainly give Trout a big edge on defense, but here again Cabrera has always gotten a bad rap. When he played first base prior to this season his soft hands always put him near the top of the league in the defensive metrics. Now he goes across the diamond, plays a much more difficult position, and still ranks third among American League third baseman when it comes to range factor.

I know WAR is the number that’s all the rage among stat junkies these days. I’m interested in what the new stats tell us, but I’m deeply skeptical that it’s possible to generate one number that’s some universal arbiter of who is the best. If you put together a package of new stats—slugging percentage, on-base percentage and range factor, I think Cabrera still wins the argument.

Furthermore, it’s unfortunate that our welcoming of new stats has led us to discredit the old ones. It’s good that we now give as much credit for runs scored as we do for RBIs. But since when is driving in runs not important?  It’s good that our evaluations of power better account for extra-base hits. But since when is hitting a home run not a big deal? It’s good that we give credit for walks, something done here at TheSportsNotebook every time we pick an All-Star team. But it’s still better to get on base by putting the ball in play, where more things can happen as a result. Cabrera swept the board and led the American League in all three traditional categories.

I’m not going to take the mealy-mouthed approach that says both players are deserving MVP candidates and that you can’t go wrong with either one. I’ll certainly acknowledge both players are extremely good, as their mere presence in the discussion indicates. But I do not see a credible case for Trout going higher than second and that’s why Miguel Cabrera is TheSportsNotebook’s pick for American League MVP.

Throughout the season other candidates came and went, particularly Josh Hamilton for Texas, who owned this discussion the first two months and was still relevant several weeks ago. But his offensive numbers are considerably behind Cabrera’s, in spite of Texas being vastly more hitter-friendly than Detroit. Cabrera’s teammate, Prince Fielder, deserves a solid finish in the voting, but at .528, his slugging number was a little low for the MVP candidacy of a power hitter.

If we wanted to look at a starting pitcher, I’d have to give the nod to David Price. The Rays’ ace was a 20-game winner, led  the league in ERA at 2.56, worked 211 innings and was the clear ace for a team heavily dependent on starting pitching. He deserves his first Cy Young Award, and should be no lower than third in the final MVP vote.

The Manager of the Year obviously comes down to Buck Showalter in Baltimore and Bob Melvin in Oakland, both of whom turned in jobs so extraordinary it makes you wish we could give one to both of them and just blank out another year where there was no obvious candidate. Oakland’s winning the AL West makes this a little tougher, but I’m still leaning Buck’s direction. Oakland had high-quality starting pitching all year and that makes managing a lot easier. Baltimore won because Showalter masterfully handled his bullpen and squeezed the most of a starting rotation that was constantly in flux.

So that’s a wrap for the American League regular season—Miguel Cabrera for MVP, David Price for the Cy Young and Buck Showalter as Manager of the Year. Click here to read the choices in the National League.

 

American League All-Stars: The Final Ballot

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There’s one more day left in the regular season, and the AL West & AL East titles are still up for grabs. I’ve been holding off doing my final American League All-Stars, hoping we’d get some clarity on the division winners, but there’s no time left, as we’ll run MVP articles tomorrow and playoff commentary starting Friday.

We know St. Louis will visit Atlanta for one wild-card, but Texas, Baltimore, Oakland and New York are all possibilities to be playing in the American League game. It’s also possible the Yankees/Orioles could have a one-game playoff in the AL East. So with all that ahead of us, let’s do another round of individual honors today in celebrating the best at each position in the American League.

The National League All-Stars ran on Sunday, and we’ll use the same format—the obvious selection of one player at each everyday position, with the caveat that our outfield must include at least one pure centerfielder to make this a credible lineup. Then five starting pitchers, two setup guys and a closer.

C: Joe Mauer (Minnesota)—The man they call “Baby Jesus” in the Twin Cities has lost some luster nationally after his MVP campaign of 2009, but he’s still easily the best catcher in the American League. With a .415 on-base percentage and respectable power to the alleys—31 doubles—keeping the slugging percentage acceptable, Mauer is still a valued offensive threat at a position where they aren’t many.

1B: Prince Fielder (Detroit)—A .410 on-base percentage, and 30 home runs in a pitcher’s park make Fielder the surprise winner of the Best Free Agent 1st Baseman Coming Over From An NL Central Playoff Team, a two-man battle he waged with Albert Pujols. This weekend, Fielder’s going to be playing baseball and Pujols will not.

2B: Robinson Cano (NY Yanks)—This required less than a second of thought. Earlier in Cano’s career, you had to weigh his batting average and home runs against what was mediocre defense and atrocious plate discipline. He’s now grading out strongly in the defensive metrics, and while he’ll never be known as patient, his on-base percentages are now solid.

3B: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)—If Cano was an easy lock, what does that make the man leading all the Triple Crown categories with a day left? Cabrera’s got the batting title and RBI crown locked up, and leads Josh Hamilton by one for the home run title. Cabrera would still go in the books as a Triple Crown winner if he ties for the HR title, so it’s looking like we’ve got our first winner of this mythical, but prestigious honor, since 1967.

SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (Cleveland)—His offensive numbers aren’t that far behind Derek Jeter’s, who is setting the pace with his bat. Cabrera is within 25 points in on-base percentage, seven points in slugging percentage and Jeter has Yankee Stadium to hit in. But the defense is night and day. The defensive metrics, as they have year after year, continue to tell us the Captain has zero range. Cabrera is the best defensive shortstop in the American League.

As regular readers know I am decidedly not a Yankee fan, but that is not the reason for this selection. The fact I loathe the Yanks just make all the excellent reasons for picking Cabrera a lot more satisfying.

CF: Mike Trout (LA Angels)—With a .397 on-base percentage and .561 slugging, along with being one of the top defensive centerfielders, the only question regarding Trout is to where he’ll fit into tomorrow’s discussion of the American League MVP.

OF: Josh Hamilton (Texas)—The gap between him and the two best contenders for the next spot is not huge, but Hamilton still has 43 home runs, he still draws walks and he still leads a team that depends heavily on its offense and is at least heading back to the postseason. One caveat—this is a spot that’s close enough that it could change depending on who wins the divisions. More below.

OF: Austin Jackson (Detroit)—Jackson’s .376/.476 stat line for OBP & Slugging, don’t jump off the page, but they are certainly very good, and it’s done in a pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Jackson plays an above-average centerfield to go with it. The first man out is the intriguing question. Adam Jones for Baltimore is still on the right on the cusp, as the best defensive outfielder of anyone we’ve mentioned, including Trout. He’s slugging over .500 and is the key offensive player on what’s already a great Cinderella story and could still end up winning the AL East. My problem? The .335 on-base percentage just isn’t All-Star level.

Now if Jones were to do something transcendent, like push the Orioles into a one-game playoff with New York tomorrow (he’d need unlikely help from Boston tonight) and then come up big in that game, I can see the case for moving him into the discussion. And if Hamilton’s Rangers come up short tonight, I can see the case for moving him out. Or I could see I straight Jones-for-Jackson swap. But honestly, not only are those scenarios unlikely, they would only mandate a second look, not a guaranteed change. For now let’s just assume that Trout-Hamilton-Jackson I the All-Star outfield.

STARTING PITCHING
David Price (Tampa Bay)
Justin Verlander (Detroit)
Jered Weaver (LA Angels)
*These three fall into the no-brainer category. Price and Weaver both won 20 games and joined Verlander in the top three in ERA. The Tiger ace won 17 and logged 238 innings. The Cy Young conversation is built around these three, although Weaver coming up short of 200 innings due to his late-summer injury would hurt him there.
Felix Hernandez (Seattle)
Matt Harrison (Texas)
*Felix was closer to the top at the start of the month when I felt he had a great case for a Cy Young & MVP sweep even if I knew the politics of the latter award ruled that one out. The ERA is “up” to 3.06, which ends that discussion, but he’s still piled up 232 innings, second to Verlander. And Harrison not only won 18 games, but did it with 213 innings and a 3.29 ERA. Something an injury-hit pitching staff in a hitter’s park needed badly.

RELIEF PITCHING
Kelvin Herrera (Kansas City)
Ryan Cook (Oakland)
Fernando Rodney (Tampa Bay)
*Herrera was a horse working in obscurity as he piled up 84 innings and posted a sharp 2.35 ERA. Put this guy on a contender and he be getting as much ink as it’s possible for a setup man to receive. Ryan Cook could kind of double as a closer, with 14 saves, although officially Grant Balfour has that role for Oakland. Cook’s 2.12 ERA and 72 innings make him an easy call. And Rodney nailed down 47 saves, with a stunning 0.61 ERA.

The city of Baltimore has a right to raise a little ruckus here, as Pedro Strop in setup and Jim Johnson closing just missed. Johnson’s 51 saves were dazzling, but only four more than Rodney, and the Tampa closer had the killer ERA. Strop’s ERA jumped a run in September and allowed him to be nudged out.

Tomorrow it’s time for the MVP pick in both leagues, and those posts will include selections for Cy Young and Manager of the Year.

The American League MVP Race With A Month To Go

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The American League MVP race, at least in the eyes of the media, seems to have been narrowed to two candidates. Los Angeles Angels’ centerfielder Mike Trout and Detroit Tigers’ third baseman Miguel Cabrera. I find it hard to argue with the merits of either candidate, but before we barrel into September and lose sight of everyone else, can we give the field a proper vetting? That’s our purpose here today.

A couple points about my views of the MVP race before we begin and it’s that I reject two key cornerstones that underpin the voting. The first is that you have to make the playoffs. I have no problem with integrating a player’s individual performance into a team goal, but it seems to me that a fairer way would be whether a player helped his team reach a significant milestone—i.e, for a team like the Mariners or Brewers, making it to .500 would be a significant achievement. So why rule out Felix Hernandez or Ryan Braun if they were the difference between the team winning as often as it lost or the team being Triple-A caliber? And since I mentioned King Felix, let me also say that I find the bias against starting pitchers silly. Yes, they only play every fifth day. And their importance to that game is so monumental that they’re listed in parentheses in every game schedule. Impact makes up for lost volume.

With that out of the way, let’s get on with the show. Here are the core numbers for Trout and Cabrera coming into Tuesday’s games, listed in the following fashion: On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, Batting Average/HR, RBI/R

Mike Trout: .396/.570, .332/25, 74/108
Miguel Cabrera: .398/.588, .331/33, 111/87

Cabrera has the better numbers and plays in a deep ballpark, heavily geared toward pitchers. He’s also got significantly more at-bats, thanks to Trout’s late call-up from the minors. While the at-bats obviously contribute to the stats based on volume, they also underscore an even more important point—Cabrera’s been on the field more, and is therefore more valuable.

But on the flip side, Detroit’s also getting a big year from Prince Fielder (.411/.518) and Austin Jackson is having a surprising .387/.492 season at the top of the lineup and setting the table. Trout has less support around him, even with Albert Pujols back to swinging the bat well. From a team standpoint, each player is pushing a team that’s played below preseason expectations and keeping them in a tight playoff race. I think the combination of superior numbers, tougher park and more playing time favor Cabrera, but Trout’s relative impact on the team is high enough that I could be moved by a strong September.

That covers the two big candidates. But like presidential politics, some third-party choices are hoping to angle their way for our attention. Fielder deserves a high finish, but we’ve covered the fact he’s not most valuable on his own team. The next choice would be Josh Hamilton at Texas, who seemed to be running away with this award for the first half of the season until a staggering slump in July put him behind the eight-ball.

Hamilton’s numbers are as follows: .355/.585, .290/38, 114/89. Taken overall, they are a little behind Cabrera, in spite of the fact that Texas’ park is as good for hitters as Detroit’s is bad. And he’s got another Top 10 candidate on his own team in Adrian Beltre (.353/.546), while David Murphy has numbers that are close to MVP-caliber (.401/.515), but with 361 at-bats just hasn’t played enough to merit a high finish in the voting. Hamilton’s year has to be downgraded from MVP to very good.

The Yankees will push Robinson Cano, and at .366/.544, .303/28, and 71/80, he deserves a shout-out. But those run production numbers are low given the lineup he’s in, and the ballpark is the most hitter-friendly one we’ve covered yet. Believe it or not, New York has not produced an MVP since 1985 with Don Mattingly (although in spite of my loathing of this team, I thought Derek Jeter deserved it in 2009), and there’s no reason Cano should end the string.

Now we come to the name everyone will laugh at, but hear me out first. It’s Toronto’s Edwin Encarcion. Playing in a lineup where his one support, Jose Bautista, first slumped and then got hurt, Encarcion has quietly put up a monster season–.383/.570, .286/37, 95/84. Yes, Encarcion has 37 home runs. The problem, at least for me, is not the team being out of contention (though given some preseason expectations of contending, the Jays 60-74 record certainly doesn’t help). It’s the DH issue. When a player doesn’t play half the game he needs to elevate himself well beyond the rest of the field. Encarcion’s year is great, but it’s not well above and beyond.

There are two serious candidates from the starting pitching ranks and that would be Felix Hernandez and David Price. Hernandez is 13-6 with 2.51 ERA and 204 IP. This moves him ahead of Justin Verlander, who has the same innings and almost the same record, at 13-7, but a 2.73 ERA and has the aforementioned pitching environment. Price is 17-5 with 180 IP and a 2.54 ERA, while leading a staff that’s singlehandedly pitched Tampa back into the AL East race. Of these three, I would be inclined toward Hernandez because of the value of innings pitched.

And if Seattle can get to .500 (they are currently 66-70), I’m inclined to give Hernandez my vote. The workload he’s taken on is huge and he could be fairly said to have carried a team toward a significant achievement. Of course they still have to get there—just as Detroit and Los Angeles still have to make the playoffs to achieve their goals, and like Seattle, both teams are little bit on the outside right now. But my top three would be King Felix, Cabrera and Trout in that order as we hit the final month.

The American League MVP Race

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It’s time for midseason MVP honors and TheSportsNotebook begins today with the American League, where we’ll rank the Top 10, based on current performance to the All-Star break. Before we get into the rankings, let me preface by saying there are two criteria that don’t matter nearly as much to me as they do to the actual voters. I don’t particularly care if someone is on a playoff team. In an ideal world I’d like to see team success be a part of the equation, but not only is it not essential (this is, after all, an individual award. We have these little things called the playoffs & World Series as team rewards), I also define it more broadly, to include things helping a surprise team achieve a winning record or some other non-playoff benchmark no one expected them to get. And I don’t have a bias against starting pitchers. They may only go every fifth day, but the impact on the games they do play is easily enough to offset that. So here we go with TheSportsNotebook’s Top 10 in the AL MVP race…

1)Josh Hamilton (Texas): Yeah, I know I just gave that spiel about it not having to be from a contender, but sometimes one player’s numbers are so extraordinary as to defy any other choice. A .635 slugging percentage, keyed by 27 home runs is one of those numbers, and with a .380 OBP, it’s not as though Hamilton can’t make consistent contact when he’s not hitting the ball out of the park.

2)Paul Konerko (Chicago): He meets a lot of the classic MVP definitions, both conventional and what I outlined above. With a .404 on-base percentage and .528 slugging, the numbers are there. He’s on a first-place team and one that isn’t loaded with offensive depth. If Konerko can return his ratings in the defensive metrics to their career norms—he’s currently below average at first—and narrow the huge power gap between him and Hamilton he can make a run at the award.

3)Robinson Cano (New York): Cano got off to a slow start, so his OBP is still at .374, a little too low for the top spot, given another big power gap between him and Hamilton (.578 slugging, 57 points behind the Ranger outfielder). And Cano, like Hamilton, plies his craft in a friendly hitter’s park. But the overall offensive profile is extremely good and Cano’s defensive consistency has finally caught up to his athletic ability, as he grades out above average in the defensive metrics at a key position. With the Yankee lineup not as loaded as in years past, thanks to the decline of Alex Rodriguez, Cano can make himself a strong case in the second half.

Let me insert a theoretical page break at this point. I’d consider Konerko and Cano to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the challengers to Hamilton, so there would be a sharp drop from #3 to #4.

4)Justin Verlander (Detroit): The Detroit ace has taken the ball 18 times already, on pace for a full workload and worked 132 IP, and almost singlehandedly kept the Detroit pitching staff afloat, as the Tigers struggled to remain in contention. The resume certainly isn’t what it was last year, but no sane person could expect a re-enactment of his 2011 campaign. He does deserve to be in the lead for the Cy Young Award and to lead up the next tier of candidates.

5)David Ortiz (Boston): Normally it’s tough for a DH to climb this high on my list, as I think not playing the field is a serious drawback. But Ortiz has a .406/.607 stat line for his OBP/Slugging, and like Verlander, has helped keep a struggling team afloat to the All-Star break. If Ortiz played the field he could be neck-and-neck with Hamilton based on offensive value.

Another theoretical page break here, as we move down another tier…

6)Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)—Cabrera leads up what’s about to be run on Detroit Tiger position players, with a .382/.557 stat line and the defensive metrics tell us he’s doing a better job at converting to third base that one might have expected. Cabrera was underrated defensively at first base too, and he’s been consistently undervalued when it comes to this award throughout his career.

7)Mark Trumbo (Los Angeles)—Another slugger who helped keep a struggling team alive, with a .608 slugging percentage that nips Ortiz by a point and is in striking distance of Hamilton—an apt analogy for the Angels and Rangers in the AL West. Trumbo has seen the help from his teammates arrive, as LAA’s in strong position for the wild-card and a shot at catching Texas.

8)Austin Jackson (Detroit)—His time on the disabled list keeps him down the list a bit, but in the spacious Comerica Park, Jackson has a .408/.545 stat line. The on-base percentage—keyed by a .332 batting average—is heartening, while the power is surprising. With nine home runs, Jackson does it more by driving the ball in the alleys than hitting it out, but either way, he’s a new dimension at the top of the Tiger lineup.

9)Prince Fielder (Detroit)—You can tell how bad the rest of the Detroit supporting cast has been when they can have four players in the Top 10 and still be struggling around the .500 level, but Fielder, along with the three above, have been able to keep the Tigers on their collective back. Prince has gone deep 15 times in a tough park to hit it out of—is it unreasonable to think he’d match Cano’s 20 if the two switched homefields? Fielder, like Konerko, can move up the list if his defense can improve to past levels.

10)Mike Trout (Los Angeles)—He got a late start, but as the year wears on that won’t matter quite as much, and if the .397/.562 stat line holds and the playing time gap diminishes, Trout will move up the list on that basis alone. One thing to note is that his defensive range ratings are not strong, in spite of the highlight clips you see. This is not unusual in young players up the middle, as experience and positioning count for a lot when it comes to getting to balls. In the meantime, Trout deserves a place in the midseason Top 10, although I thought ESPN’s promo last night comparing him and fellow rookie Bryce Harper in Washington to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird took “over the top” and gave it a whole new meaning.

I’m not going to do an honorable mention after this, because the last five players on the list really are the honorable mention. There’s certainly time for this landscape to change, but right now this race is very clearly Josh Hamilton’s to lose.