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American League MVP race

MLB Coverage: American League All-Stars At The Break

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The All-Star Game may be history, but in the MLB coverage at TheSportsNotebook, the real conversation about the All-Stars should be just getting heated up. There should be more emphasis placed on whose best at their spot at season’s end, not in mid-July. What follows is TheSportsNotebook’s view of how the American League All-Stars should stack up as we head into the season’s final 2 ½ months.

This is one of three installments of the All-Star series. The first was released back in May and we’ll do it again at the end of the regular season. The rules for selection are as follows…

  • This is a true team, meaning five starting pitchers and two setup men, to go along with the closer. It also means that at least one outfielder must be a true centerfielder, or at least able to credibly play the position if this team actually took the field.
  • As a personal preference, I give defensive range heavy consideration  at second base and shortstop. This doesn’t mean I’ll pick the modern equivalent of Mario Mendoza as an All-Star—whoever is chosen still has to be able to hit first. But I’ll sacrifice some offensive numbers if there is a significant gap in the defensive metrics.
  • And this may seem obvious, but it’s worth reiterating that these choices are not predictive in terms of what I think will happen between now and the end of the regular season. It’s not a statement on who has had the better career.  It’s just my view of who has compiled the best body of work between Opening Day and the All-Star break in 2013.

Read the choices for National League All-Stars at the break


C: Joe Mauer (Min): This is a two-man race between Mauer and Cleveland’s Carlos Santana. Mauer churns out on-base percentage, as he’s always done, with a .402 OBP. You would think Santana would have the edge in power, but the home runs are only an 11-8 edge for the Indian catcher and Mauer’s 30 doubles give him the superior slugging percentage. The race is close, but picking right now, Mauer is the clear leader.

1B: Chris Davis (Bal): You know about the 37 home runs, but don’t overlook Davis’ .392 OBP. That tells us he can continue to be a productive offensive player even if his power hits a drought. Normally I would say “the inevitable drought”, but it sure doesn’t seem inevitable the way he’s swinging the bat right now. Davis is obliterating a good American League first base class that includes good years from Edwin Encarcion, Prince Fielder and James Loney.

2B: Dustin Pedroia (Bos): Yankee fans are screaming that I’m allowing my Red Sox fan bias to override good judgment. I certainly can’t claim non-bias, but I do believe this is an argument that can be made to an objective observer. While Cano’s has an advantage in slugging (.531 to .436), driven by a big home run gap (21-6), Pedroia has a slightly better OBP (.396 to .386) and more importantly, Pedroia’s edge on the defensive metrics is substantial, as Cano ranks as the worst defensive second baseman in the American League. Just looking athletic doesn’t mean you make more plays.

3B: Miguel Cabrera (Det): This one’s  as easy as picking the first base spot. Let’s give our kudos to players like Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson. Or an up-and-comer like Manny Machado. But with Cabrera, we’re talking about numbers that are superior on the surface, at .458 OBP and .674 slugging. Then we talk about him doing it in a pitcher-friendly park, something only Donaldson can claim amongst the challengers. Cabrera is that rare star who is really worth all the media accolades showered on him.

SS: Jhonny Peralta (Det): The shortstop class in the American League is exceptionally weak, with Derek Jeter hurt and Asdrubal Cabrera having a bad year. But Peralta is swinging the bat well, with a stat line of .361/.447 in the aforementioned pitchers’ park in Detroit. And he plays a respectable enough game defensively to justify All-Star selection.

CF: Mike Trout (LAA): I know I’m cheating a little bit here, because Trout has played his share of left field, but he broke in as a centerfielder and the next best choices in the American League are pure corner outfielders. Trout is the best of anyone in the outfield in what’s frankly not a very good class of talent. Trout’s .399/.565 stat line is one of the few bright spots the Angels have had in a troubled first half.

OF: Jose Bautista (Tor): It was a slow start, but Bautista has heated up and gotten to 20 home runs. His slugging percentage of .493 is low for him, but still a solid number, and the .351 OBP shows he still knows how to get the most of his at-bats.

OF: Tori Hunter (Det): He’s vindicated Detroit’s confidence in him, with a .352/.458 season and his veteran leadership is only going to matter more as the games get bigger.

Other worthy candidates include Nelson Cruz, Raul Ibanez and Adam Jones, but they all need to lift their on-base percentage. I particularly single out Jones, because this lineup would be better if I could list him as the centerfielder and move Trout into one of the corner spots. But Jones has got to lift that mediocre .324 on-base percentage. He’s still not disciplined enough at the plate, with only 13 walks. By comparison, Trout has 47 and most other centerfielders are in the 30s.

Another centerfielder in striking distance is Boston’s Jacoby Ellsbury, with a .368/.422 stat line. If he nudges that power up just a bit—either by home runs or just hitting more doubles, he could push Trout into the corner spots and force me to choose between Bautista or Hunter.

DH: David Ortiz (Bos): Big Papi is an easy call, with no one else in shouting distance of his .402/.606 stat line. In a world without Miguel Cabrera and Chris Davis, you could argue Ortiz for MVP, depending how you feel about a DH getting the award.


SP: Felix Hernandez (Sea)
SP: Bartolo Colon (Oak)
SP: Max Scherzer (Det)
SP: Hisashi Iwakuma (Sea)
SP: Derek Holland (Tex)

The American League starting pitchers broke into three basic groups. King Felix is a group unto himself and has to be the clear leader for the Cy Young Award right now. Colon and Scherzer were pretty easy picks, who balanced good ERAs, W-L records and innings. If I had to pick, I’d lean Colon, because Scherzer’s ERA was slightly higher, at 3.19, than I would really like. But that 13-1 record speaks pretty loudly.

It was the last two picks that are a little tougher, but Iwakuma still had a nice balance, at 8-4 with a 3.02 ERA and a solid 131 innings. The last spot was a razor-close race between teammates, as Yu Darvish has the same record as Holland and his ERA is narrowly better. But Holland has six more innings, and with the latter being scheduled to start the first game after the break, he’s the favorite to be the staff workhorse.

Other candidates include Boston’s John Lackey, who needs more innings, Tampa’s Matt Moore who needs to bring down that 3.44 ERA, as well as up the workload. And the one I feel most guilty about, and the one that modern sabermetric guys are ready to excoriate me over, would be Chicago’s Chris Sale. He’s got the ERA at 2.85, and the innings are good enough at 120. But I don’t like the 6-8 record. I know his team’s offense is terrible, but please just get to .500.

RP: Jesse Crain (Chi)
RP: Tanner Scheppers (Tex)
CL: Joe Nathan (Tex)

The race for the closer spot is really tight, with Oakland’s Grant Balfour and the legendary Yankee, Mariano Rivera, being right there. I think of this is Nathan-Rivera being sort of a preliminary bout. Each is in a hitter’s park, each has at least one blown save and each has a sub-2.00 ERA. In the end, Nathan’s only coughed up one save, while Rivera has blown two, and Nathan has the better ERA, 1.36 to 1.83. It’s close enough to change in a week or two, but right now I don’t see the argument—other than sentiment (and even I’d have sentiment for Rivera)—for not picking Nathan.

That moves him into the finals against Balfour, who is a perfect 25-for-25 with a buck-03 ERA, the best of them all. It’s not just that Nathan is in a tougher park to pitch, he’s also got five more saves. It’s enough to give the Texas closer the edge.

Crain and Scheppers were both pretty easy calls. I’d like to see a few more innings from Crain—he’s at 36, while a lot of his contemporaries are in the 40s, but the 0.74 ERA obliterates the field. Scheppers is at a 1.84 ERA in 44 innings, so there’s no argument against him that I would consider credible.

THE AMERICAN LEAGUE AWARDS

MVP: Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)
Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (Seattle)
Manager of The Year: Terry Francona (Cleveland)

If the season ended today, all of these would be pretty anti-climatic. Since the season doesn’t end today, it’s worth wondering if Davis can make a run at Cabrera in the MVP discussion. It’s anybody’s guess who the challengers would be to Felix and Tito, but whomever they are, they’re pretty far in the rearview mirror.

 

The American League MVP Race With A Month To Go

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The American League MVP race, at least in the eyes of the media, seems to have been narrowed to two candidates. Los Angeles Angels’ centerfielder Mike Trout and Detroit Tigers’ third baseman Miguel Cabrera. I find it hard to argue with the merits of either candidate, but before we barrel into September and lose sight of everyone else, can we give the field a proper vetting? That’s our purpose here today.

A couple points about my views of the MVP race before we begin and it’s that I reject two key cornerstones that underpin the voting. The first is that you have to make the playoffs. I have no problem with integrating a player’s individual performance into a team goal, but it seems to me that a fairer way would be whether a player helped his team reach a significant milestone—i.e, for a team like the Mariners or Brewers, making it to .500 would be a significant achievement. So why rule out Felix Hernandez or Ryan Braun if they were the difference between the team winning as often as it lost or the team being Triple-A caliber? And since I mentioned King Felix, let me also say that I find the bias against starting pitchers silly. Yes, they only play every fifth day. And their importance to that game is so monumental that they’re listed in parentheses in every game schedule. Impact makes up for lost volume.

With that out of the way, let’s get on with the show. Here are the core numbers for Trout and Cabrera coming into Tuesday’s games, listed in the following fashion: On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, Batting Average/HR, RBI/R

Mike Trout: .396/.570, .332/25, 74/108
Miguel Cabrera: .398/.588, .331/33, 111/87

Cabrera has the better numbers and plays in a deep ballpark, heavily geared toward pitchers. He’s also got significantly more at-bats, thanks to Trout’s late call-up from the minors. While the at-bats obviously contribute to the stats based on volume, they also underscore an even more important point—Cabrera’s been on the field more, and is therefore more valuable.

But on the flip side, Detroit’s also getting a big year from Prince Fielder (.411/.518) and Austin Jackson is having a surprising .387/.492 season at the top of the lineup and setting the table. Trout has less support around him, even with Albert Pujols back to swinging the bat well. From a team standpoint, each player is pushing a team that’s played below preseason expectations and keeping them in a tight playoff race. I think the combination of superior numbers, tougher park and more playing time favor Cabrera, but Trout’s relative impact on the team is high enough that I could be moved by a strong September.

That covers the two big candidates. But like presidential politics, some third-party choices are hoping to angle their way for our attention. Fielder deserves a high finish, but we’ve covered the fact he’s not most valuable on his own team. The next choice would be Josh Hamilton at Texas, who seemed to be running away with this award for the first half of the season until a staggering slump in July put him behind the eight-ball.

Hamilton’s numbers are as follows: .355/.585, .290/38, 114/89. Taken overall, they are a little behind Cabrera, in spite of the fact that Texas’ park is as good for hitters as Detroit’s is bad. And he’s got another Top 10 candidate on his own team in Adrian Beltre (.353/.546), while David Murphy has numbers that are close to MVP-caliber (.401/.515), but with 361 at-bats just hasn’t played enough to merit a high finish in the voting. Hamilton’s year has to be downgraded from MVP to very good.

The Yankees will push Robinson Cano, and at .366/.544, .303/28, and 71/80, he deserves a shout-out. But those run production numbers are low given the lineup he’s in, and the ballpark is the most hitter-friendly one we’ve covered yet. Believe it or not, New York has not produced an MVP since 1985 with Don Mattingly (although in spite of my loathing of this team, I thought Derek Jeter deserved it in 2009), and there’s no reason Cano should end the string.

Now we come to the name everyone will laugh at, but hear me out first. It’s Toronto’s Edwin Encarcion. Playing in a lineup where his one support, Jose Bautista, first slumped and then got hurt, Encarcion has quietly put up a monster season–.383/.570, .286/37, 95/84. Yes, Encarcion has 37 home runs. The problem, at least for me, is not the team being out of contention (though given some preseason expectations of contending, the Jays 60-74 record certainly doesn’t help). It’s the DH issue. When a player doesn’t play half the game he needs to elevate himself well beyond the rest of the field. Encarcion’s year is great, but it’s not well above and beyond.

There are two serious candidates from the starting pitching ranks and that would be Felix Hernandez and David Price. Hernandez is 13-6 with 2.51 ERA and 204 IP. This moves him ahead of Justin Verlander, who has the same innings and almost the same record, at 13-7, but a 2.73 ERA and has the aforementioned pitching environment. Price is 17-5 with 180 IP and a 2.54 ERA, while leading a staff that’s singlehandedly pitched Tampa back into the AL East race. Of these three, I would be inclined toward Hernandez because of the value of innings pitched.

And if Seattle can get to .500 (they are currently 66-70), I’m inclined to give Hernandez my vote. The workload he’s taken on is huge and he could be fairly said to have carried a team toward a significant achievement. Of course they still have to get there—just as Detroit and Los Angeles still have to make the playoffs to achieve their goals, and like Seattle, both teams are little bit on the outside right now. But my top three would be King Felix, Cabrera and Trout in that order as we hit the final month.

The American League MVP Race

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It’s time for midseason MVP honors and TheSportsNotebook begins today with the American League, where we’ll rank the Top 10, based on current performance to the All-Star break. Before we get into the rankings, let me preface by saying there are two criteria that don’t matter nearly as much to me as they do to the actual voters. I don’t particularly care if someone is on a playoff team. In an ideal world I’d like to see team success be a part of the equation, but not only is it not essential (this is, after all, an individual award. We have these little things called the playoffs & World Series as team rewards), I also define it more broadly, to include things helping a surprise team achieve a winning record or some other non-playoff benchmark no one expected them to get. And I don’t have a bias against starting pitchers. They may only go every fifth day, but the impact on the games they do play is easily enough to offset that. So here we go with TheSportsNotebook’s Top 10 in the AL MVP race…

1)Josh Hamilton (Texas): Yeah, I know I just gave that spiel about it not having to be from a contender, but sometimes one player’s numbers are so extraordinary as to defy any other choice. A .635 slugging percentage, keyed by 27 home runs is one of those numbers, and with a .380 OBP, it’s not as though Hamilton can’t make consistent contact when he’s not hitting the ball out of the park.

2)Paul Konerko (Chicago): He meets a lot of the classic MVP definitions, both conventional and what I outlined above. With a .404 on-base percentage and .528 slugging, the numbers are there. He’s on a first-place team and one that isn’t loaded with offensive depth. If Konerko can return his ratings in the defensive metrics to their career norms—he’s currently below average at first—and narrow the huge power gap between him and Hamilton he can make a run at the award.

3)Robinson Cano (New York): Cano got off to a slow start, so his OBP is still at .374, a little too low for the top spot, given another big power gap between him and Hamilton (.578 slugging, 57 points behind the Ranger outfielder). And Cano, like Hamilton, plies his craft in a friendly hitter’s park. But the overall offensive profile is extremely good and Cano’s defensive consistency has finally caught up to his athletic ability, as he grades out above average in the defensive metrics at a key position. With the Yankee lineup not as loaded as in years past, thanks to the decline of Alex Rodriguez, Cano can make himself a strong case in the second half.

Let me insert a theoretical page break at this point. I’d consider Konerko and Cano to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the challengers to Hamilton, so there would be a sharp drop from #3 to #4.

4)Justin Verlander (Detroit): The Detroit ace has taken the ball 18 times already, on pace for a full workload and worked 132 IP, and almost singlehandedly kept the Detroit pitching staff afloat, as the Tigers struggled to remain in contention. The resume certainly isn’t what it was last year, but no sane person could expect a re-enactment of his 2011 campaign. He does deserve to be in the lead for the Cy Young Award and to lead up the next tier of candidates.

5)David Ortiz (Boston): Normally it’s tough for a DH to climb this high on my list, as I think not playing the field is a serious drawback. But Ortiz has a .406/.607 stat line for his OBP/Slugging, and like Verlander, has helped keep a struggling team afloat to the All-Star break. If Ortiz played the field he could be neck-and-neck with Hamilton based on offensive value.

Another theoretical page break here, as we move down another tier…

6)Miguel Cabrera (Detroit)—Cabrera leads up what’s about to be run on Detroit Tiger position players, with a .382/.557 stat line and the defensive metrics tell us he’s doing a better job at converting to third base that one might have expected. Cabrera was underrated defensively at first base too, and he’s been consistently undervalued when it comes to this award throughout his career.

7)Mark Trumbo (Los Angeles)—Another slugger who helped keep a struggling team alive, with a .608 slugging percentage that nips Ortiz by a point and is in striking distance of Hamilton—an apt analogy for the Angels and Rangers in the AL West. Trumbo has seen the help from his teammates arrive, as LAA’s in strong position for the wild-card and a shot at catching Texas.

8)Austin Jackson (Detroit)—His time on the disabled list keeps him down the list a bit, but in the spacious Comerica Park, Jackson has a .408/.545 stat line. The on-base percentage—keyed by a .332 batting average—is heartening, while the power is surprising. With nine home runs, Jackson does it more by driving the ball in the alleys than hitting it out, but either way, he’s a new dimension at the top of the Tiger lineup.

9)Prince Fielder (Detroit)—You can tell how bad the rest of the Detroit supporting cast has been when they can have four players in the Top 10 and still be struggling around the .500 level, but Fielder, along with the three above, have been able to keep the Tigers on their collective back. Prince has gone deep 15 times in a tough park to hit it out of—is it unreasonable to think he’d match Cano’s 20 if the two switched homefields? Fielder, like Konerko, can move up the list if his defense can improve to past levels.

10)Mike Trout (Los Angeles)—He got a late start, but as the year wears on that won’t matter quite as much, and if the .397/.562 stat line holds and the playing time gap diminishes, Trout will move up the list on that basis alone. One thing to note is that his defensive range ratings are not strong, in spite of the highlight clips you see. This is not unusual in young players up the middle, as experience and positioning count for a lot when it comes to getting to balls. In the meantime, Trout deserves a place in the midseason Top 10, although I thought ESPN’s promo last night comparing him and fellow rookie Bryce Harper in Washington to Magic Johnson and Larry Bird took “over the top” and gave it a whole new meaning.

I’m not going to do an honorable mention after this, because the last five players on the list really are the honorable mention. There’s certainly time for this landscape to change, but right now this race is very clearly Josh Hamilton’s to lose.