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Allen Crabbe

Cal Basketball Is Charging Hard

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The Cal basketball team got some unwelcome publicity a week ago when a shove by head coach Mike Montgomery to the chest of guard Allen Crabbe got national attention. What that’s overshadowing is that Cal is coming on as strong as any team in the country. The Golden Bears, seemingly a longshot just to make the NCAA Tournament, have won five straight and improbably become a contender for the Pac-12 title in the regular season’s final two weeks.

A February 7 loss to Arizona State dropped Cal to 14-9 overall. However, they haven’t lost since and it’s not a soft schedule that’s inflating their win-loss record. The Golden Bears have won at Arizona, won at Oregon and beaten UCLA. They’ve also won at USC, a team that turned around its season after an early coaching change and has a winning record in conference play. So is Montgomery’s team really peaking in time for the NCAAs or is this just a case of another team being the flavor of the month, only to fade away?

Cal is built on its backcourt. Crabbe is a great player, averaging 19 ppg and he’s ably supported by Justin Cobb, at 15 ppg. Both guards share the ball and both chip in some rebounding. The forwards, Richard Solomon and David Kravish aren’t scorers, but they do rebound and give Cal just enough physicality to ensure their great guard play isn’t wasted.

The winning streak started two weeks ago today with the road trip to Arizona, a game that was set up to jam a fork in Cal’s NCAA hopes. Instead, the Crabbe and Cobbs shot the lights out, going a combined 20-for-29 for 52 points to lead the 77-69 upset. As impressive as the showing was, we could be forgiven for thinking that it was just one hot shooting game at an opportune time. But Cal was able to follow it up by beating UCLA at home, 76-63. This was in spite of the Bruins holding a definite edge on scoring from three-point range (nine treys to Cal’s two). In this case, Cal’s 50 percent shooting from the floor wasn’t about being hot, it was about inside scoring. Kravish and Solomon combined for 35 points and 21 rebounds, even more impressive when you consider how physical the opponent is.

Crabbe and Cobbs cranked it back up for the USC game, combining for 45 points, while the frontcourt did the dirty work of producing a 35-24 rebounding advantage and Cal got to the line consistently. Then it was time for the defense to step it up a notch. The shooting wasn’t there in Thursday’s trip to Pac-12 leader Oregon, or yesterday at Oregon State, but Cal held its opponents to 27 percent shooting in Thursday’s two-point win and 35 percent in a one-point escape on Saturday.

What it all boils down to is that Cal is showing they can win just about any way an opponent wants to play. They can destroy you with their guards. Their forwards can match up in a physical game. If the offense isn’t flowing smoothly, the Bears can bail themselves out with defense.

The one thing this team does not do very well is shoot the three-ball. Even in this five-game win streak, they’re only shooting 29 percent from three-point range, while the opponents are at 35 percent. Like all of Montgomery’s teams, Cal does a good job in staying away from its weakness, and Crabbe is the only player who shoots from behind the arc with any regularity—at 35 percent he’s just good enough to justify it, but not good enough for an opposing defense to stretch and risk getting beaten off the dribble.

Cal is now just one game back in the loss column and projected as a #12 seed by ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi in the projections that were last updated on Friday. They’ll play the last three regular season games for both a championship and for survival. And the schedule isn’t imposing—all three will be at home and the toughest will be against fellow NCAA bubble team Colorado. There isn’t any reason to think Cal can’t close the season with three straight wins, lock up a bid and perhaps steal an improbable conference championship.

KEEPING UP WITH COLORADO

Speaking of Colorado, the Buffs are currently projected as a #10 seed, a projection that factors in an overtime loss earlier this week to Arizona State. Colorado has a well-balanced attack with four players averaging between 10-15 points per game. But one of those pieces—6’11” freshman Josh Scott is out with a concussion.

The Buffs need Scott back to balance out their lineup. They have good guards in Askia Bookie and Spencer Dinwiddie. Forward Andre Roberson is a good scorer and excellent rebounder. Scott makes them complete and a threat to win the Pac-12 tournament for the second straight year.

Colorado has a key week ahead, with a road game at 16-12 Stanford preceding next weekend’s date at Cal. Then the Buffs host Oregon to start the regular season’s final week. That’s three difficult games of which they need to be thinking about winning at least two. Then Colorado closes it out with a home date against Oregon State.

The Pac-12’s Five Contenders To Move Off The NCAA Bubble

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No conference race has as many good scenarios for the final week than the Pac-12, as the league begins its usual run of Thursday night games that set the stage for the weekend. The championship is in play, five teams are on the radar for the NCAA Tournament, and only one can really feel secure about its position in the Dance. So if you don’t feel like following the controversy that’s flared up at UCLA about whether Ben Howland is or isn’t in control of the program, there’s still plenty of on-court action to keep up with in the Pac-12. TheSportsNotebook will look at the five relevant teams.

We can break them down into three groups. Washington/Cal are still playing for the league title and will probably make the NCAA Tournament, though only Cal can really feel safe. Arizona is likely to make the NCAAs, though out of the championship mix. Oregon and Colorado are right on the bubble. Here’s the rundown…

Washington (20-8, 13-3, projected #10 seed): If they get road wins at USC and UCLA, the Huskies lock up an outright Pac-12 championship in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Lorenzo Romar’s program. The core of the lineup is a trio of players who run 6’5” and 6’6” and can control the wings. Tony Wroten, Terrence Ross and C.J. Wilcox have ppg averages of 17, 15 & 14 respectively. Wilcox is lights-out from behind the arc. Wroten is a good playmaker. Ross crashes the boards. The best news for Romar is none of these kids has hit their junior year. Of course for the short-term prospects in big games, maybe that’s also the worse news. I’ve been saying for at least the last year that if 7’0” center Aziz N’Diaye really becomes a force in the post, the Huskies can make a big run on the national stage. But I’m tired of waiting. N’Diaye is a respectable rebounder, but not a dominator.

Washington deserves to be more secure than ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi projects them, but Lunardi is trying to track with the Selection Committee will do, not what teams deserve, and there’s a good chance he’s right. While most of the Huskies are losses are “good”—no shame in Marquette or Duke, you can live with St. Louis and Nevada. But dumping a 19-point game to South Dakota State at home? That game would be the reason Washington could be a rare champ of a power conference still needing at least one win in their league tournament.

Cal (23-7, 13-4, projected #9 seed): There’s only one game left for the Golden Bears’ regular season and even if Cal loses at Stanford and again in the league tournament, they’re probably still in. The non-conference losses to Missouri, San Diego State and UNLV are respectable enough and Cal had won six in a row prior to a loss at Colorado.

This is a team that’s very good at the guard spots. Allen Crabbe and Justin Cobb both can shoot the trey, and the 6’6” Crabbe contributes some board work. Jose Gutierrez is a solid point guard and while not a three-point threat, his does shoot well enough from the floor that defenses can’t sag in too much to stop him off the dribble. Harper Kamp is a decent scorer at power forward. There’s not a lot of depth, nor much muscle, but if you have a point guard who can control tempo, others who can get hot from downtown, and a head coach in Mike Montgomery who knows what he’s doing, you can win some games in the NCAA Tournament. It all depends on the matchups, but in general, I like Cal’s chances to advance.

Arizona (21-9, 12-5, projected #11 seed): Sean Miller’s team struggled against good teams in December as they tried to rebuild after the loss of power forward Derrick Williams to early entry in the NBA draft. The Wildcats fell to Mississippi State, San Diego State, Florida and Gonzaga. But there were no South Dakota State-esque defeats, and as Arizona came together the wins started coming. While Miller had to break two freshman into the starting lineup, seniors stepped up with forward Jesse Perry and guard Kyle Fogg playing well, along with junior forward Solomon Hill. The team lacks a true post presence and the depth is not great, but not only have they won games in the Pac-12, three of the losses have come by two points or loss (contrasted to only one win by that margin). Arizona is playing as well as anyone in this conference and deserves to make the field.

Oregon (20-8, 11-5, projected  to miss field by 5-8 spots): Oregon is a very finesse-oriented team with no one taller than 6’6” able to make any real contribution. Forward E.J. Singler is the “big man” and he’s better suited to step out and hit the outside shot. Fortunately he’s a good shooter inside the arc and a respectable one outside it. The offense is ultimately led by senior Devoe Joseph, who scores 17 ppg a night and can shoot the ball from anywhere on the floor, with Garrett Sim a solid supporting player in the backcourt. Kudos to head coach Dana Altman for keeping a team with this little depth and size in the race. If they win their home games this week against Colorado and Utah they deserve to make the field and I’m optimistic that they’ll be the fourth team out of the Pac-12 to have its name called on Selection Sunday.

Colorado (19-9, 11-5, projected to miss field by 5-8 spots): I know Lunardi has them basically even with Oregon, but I don’t see it. They’ve been blown out four times in league play. Colorado lost to Stanford by 20-plus points twice, including just last week. They lost by 17 to UCLA and  14 to Arizona. The non-conference schedule is filled with losses to shaky teams on the NCAA bubble—Maryland, Colorado State and Wyoming, along with a more understandable losses to Wichita State. I was a defender of this team’s NCAA prospects, but the most recent tank job against Stanford leaves even me thinking a lot of work has to be done.

The Buffs have the talent. Andre Roberson averages an 11/11 each night and will be high on TheSportsNotebook’s list when conference player of the year honors are given out next week. Carlon Brown can open it up from outside, and Austin Dufault and Spencer Dinwiddie can both fill supporting roles effectively. I can see this team winning the Pac-12 tournament. What I can’t see is how this current resume is NCAA Tournament-worthy. To my way of thinking, Colorado needs to win at Oregon tonight, at Oregon State to close the season and then at least win their quarterfinal game in the Pac-12 tourney, presumably against Oregon or Arizona. Do all that, and maybe we can talk about getting them in the field.

Four Teams Tight In Exciting Pac-12 Basketball Race

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Most college basketball fans don’t keep up with the Pac-12. The league doesn’t have a good TV contract with ESPN that lets you lock in certain nights of the week for a showcase game, and on the court, they just haven’t been that good, save for UCLA’s Final Four runs of 2006-08. But if you’re looking for a good conference championship race to tide you over in the coming sports dry spell otherwise known as “February”, the Pac-12 is a place to turn on Thursdays and Saturdays.

Cal and Oregon are tied for first at 6-2, with Colorado and Washington controlling their own destiny at 5-2. Even though we can’t count on Stanford and Arizona, each 5-3, we’ll keep today’s focus on the four two-loss teams and see how they match up. Here’s the rundown…

Cal (16-5, 6-2): The Golden Bears are the team to beat, with road wins at Washington and Oregon already under their belt, along with beating Colorado at home. Having beaten their three top rivals they should be ready to put this race away early, but inconsistency has done them in, with bad road losses at Oregon State and Washington State.

The backcourt is the reason for Cal’s success, with Allen Crabbe being the main man, Jorge Guiterrez coming in right behind and Justin Cobb running the show. All three score in double digits. Crabbe averages 16 ppg to lead the team, and  he exceeded that average in the season’s two biggest games to date, at Washington and Oregon. Crabbe is a threat both inside and outside the arc and is one of the Pac-12’s best players. Cobb is the playmaker, and also shoots very well from three, making it necessary for defenses to extend, and giving him space to create. Guiterrez is a cross between his two teammates, being a solid scorer, assist man, and a surprisingly good rebounder, given his 6’3” frame. He isn’t a threat from downtown, but since the team has other options here, Guiterrez doesn’t need to hit the three-ball.

Cal’s guard trio is going to make them a tough out for anyone in the NCAA Tournament and it’s easy to see them causing problems for a #1 or #2 seed in a second-round matchup, presuming the Pac-12’s best will probably seeded in a 7 or 8 spot. What they need to take the next step is for Harper Kamp to step it up down low. The 6’8” power forward has the talent to be much more of a factor than he is, and a breakout from him would move Cal up from being a good Pac-12 team, to a good team anywhere.

Oregon (15-5, 6-2): Depth is the issue here in Eugene, where head coach Dana Altman is keeping pace with Cal, but needs help from the supporting cast. Oregon is built around Devoe Joseph in the backcourt and E.J. Singler at forward. Joseph shoots the ball well, provides senior leadership and it was with him absent for non-conference games that the Ducks lost to Vanderbilt and BYU. Singler is a consistent scorer at the forward slot and does a decent job rebounding, but at 6’6” he needs help rebounding.

The most promising part of the Oregon lineup has been 6’7” senior Olu Ashaolu, who shows flashes of the rebounding prowess this team needs. When conference play started just prior to the New Year, Ashaolu had monster games on the glass, but he hasn’t been able to sustain that consistently. Between him and fellow senior Tyrone Nared, they need to start controlling the paint, or not only is a Pac-12 title out of the question, it will be tough sledding to make it to the NCAA Tournament. Joseph gets help in the backcourt from sharpshooting Garrett Sim, but neither one of them is really a playmaker. Props to Oregon for what they’ve done so far, but without a really effective distributor and consistent rebounding, they’ll find their current pace impossible to sustain.

Colorado (13-6, 5-2): One of the Pac-12’s new members (along with Utah), the Buffaloes are another team with enough individual pieces to make some noise, but still not looking like a complete team. I love the board work of 6’7” sophomore Andre Roberson, who’s grabbed 11 a night and if you go game-by-game, you don’t see that coming primarily at the expense of patsies. He hit Maryland for 13, Washington for 12 and pulled down 14 against Cal.  His mate in the frontcourt is senior Austin Duffault, a respectable player, but not one who will alter any game plans.

The backcourt is going to be a problem in Boulder. Carlon Brown’s production is very up-and-down, especially given that he’s a senior and while freshman Spencer Dinwiddie has got promise, this team lacks a playmaker. So far senior Nate Tomlinson has struggled to get anything going, so with the veterans at guard struggling, I have a hard time even seeing the Buffs making it to the Dance, much less staying on the heels of the conference leaders.

Washington (12-7, 5-2): With young players, Lorenzo Romar’s team started slow, but this is a program that’s been a consistent factor in the league race and has been able to win games in March. The backcourt features three starters who are either freshman or sophomores, but all three are already playing well, and their size creates matchup problems. Tony Wroten, C.J. Wilcox and Terrence Ross all go 6’5” or 6’6”, and they’re collectively averaging 48 ppg.

Wroten is the pure playmaker, and is also the top scorer. The one thing he doesn’t do well is hit three-pointers, so the stats suggest (I haven’t had the chance to see Washington play yet) a drive-and-kick guard and since Wilcox is a marksman from behind the arc, while Ross is the best rebounder, these three all complement each other perfectly. For the short-term keep an eye on Wilcox’s health, as he’s day-to-day with a hip problem, but when they’re all playing together, this is a team that can match up with Cal in the backcourt. And we haven’t even counted Abdul Gaddy, who isn’t a scorer, but distributes the ball very well.

Whether Romar finds consistency up front will decide if the Huskies can win another Pac-12 title and while they’re not there yet, Aziz N’Diaye offers hope. The 7’0” junior has had his moments, but averaging just 8 ppg he hasn’t broken out yet. N’Diaye is grabbing eight rebounds a nights, and if he could just move that up to 10, it would be precisely what Washington needs.

Cal & Washington look like the real contenders here and I look for them to separate from the pack in the coming weeks. Both will be in the NCAAs and have a chance to do some damage. I lean Washington to win the conference championship, given the greater potential for improvement.