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AL wild-card race

9 Thoughts On The American League Wild-Card Race

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The American League wild-card race has five teams vying for the final spot in the playoffs. Assuming that the runner-up in the Oakland A’s/LA Angels race for the AL West title will be in the wild-card game, that leaves five more teams within five games of each other for the last spot. Those teams are, in order of the current standings, the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Cleveland Indians. Here’s nine thoughts on that race as it heads into the homestretch…

*Detroit is the best positioned of the contenders, even though they would be out of the money (by a game and a half) if the season ended today. That’s because the Tigers are also only three games back of the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central, while everyone else is six or more out of first place. Detroit is the one team in this group of five that will be reasonably assured of making the playoffs in some capacity, as long they play good baseball down the stretch.

Justin Verlander*In that same vein, how much longer can a team with David Price, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander at the top of the rotation continue to struggle along? I know Verlander’s having a very tough year, a 4.82 ERA that would be worse if he didn’t have such a pitcher-friendly environment to work in. But Rick Porcello’s strong year has made up for that and the Tigers have swung the bats well this season. Jim Leyland would have managed this team into the playoffs. Brad Ausmus has to prove he can do the same.

*As an avowed Yankee-hater, I always tend to overestimate the boys in Pinstripes, if only because I don’t want to ever let my guard down. Consequently, I’m still thinking they have a big run left in them. Michael Pineda is pitching extremely well, a 2.05 ERA since his return from what amounts to two years’ worth of injuries. Hiroki Kuroda has gotten going, and if Masahiro Tanaka can get back on the mound and be effective again, that’s a tough 1-2-3 Joe Girardi can throw at people. And the inspirational value of Derek Jeter’s final year is the big intangible.

*Where New York has failed this year is in their offense, and I’m going to single out Jacoby Ellsbury. It’s not that the centerfielder who crossed the Rubicon from Boston this past offseason has had a bad year—he hasn’t. He’s got a .340 on-base percentage and does a great job defensively in centerfield. Boston is worse off for not having him this season. But was he really worth the 7-years/$150 million deal the Yanks gave him? Yankee Stadium hasn’t provided the upgrade in power numbers that was expected, and this early years of that contract are when Ellsbury should be most productive. Instead, he’s merely pretty decent.

*I just don’t see where Toronto has the pitching to make it. Mark Buerhle is the only starter with an ERA under 4.00, and that’s mostly on the strength of a great start to the season. The Jays can hit with anyone. Edwin Encarcion is back in the lineup, Jose Bautista and Melky Cabrera are having a big years and players like Juan Francisco and Adam Lind are steady contributors. But to make up 4.5 games in a multiple team race in a month-plus requires sustained winning streaks that are only possible with starting pitching.

*Terry Francona is nothing short of a genius to have Cleveland still holding a puncher’s chance, with a 65-63 record. The Tribe’s own pitching woes have been there all year, they dealt Justin Masterson to the St. Louis Cardinals at the trade deadline and other than Lonny Chisenhall at third base, have not gotten any pleasant surprises. But Tito still has the Indians over .500. I can’t see them making up five games and leapfrogging four teams with their flaws, but Francona has done a terrific job to even have his team in this conversation.

*Felix Hernandez is a lock for the AL Cy Young Award, and in a race where everyone has vulnerabilities, is the biggest X-factor. Any team that’s on the borderline of being #5 in the league is going to have problems, but when your rotation is the one that comes around every fifth day to King Felix, that’s a very steady anchor. Not to mention an arm that scares the heck out of the A’s or Angels if Felix were able to pitch the wild-card game.

*Was Robinson Cano’s decision to leave New York for Seattle this offseason the deciding factor in this race? Cano has given at least a little bit of life to the Mariners’ punchless offense, batting .328. And though the home runs haven’t been there (11), power is down across baseball, so the effect isn’t as dramatic. And Cano’s great ability to drive the ball in the alleys still has a slugging percentage at a solid .467. If he’s in New York, this race isn’t a race.

*Time for a prediction—I’m picking the second wild card to be…the Kansas City Royals. I’ve got the Tigers chasing them down in the AL Central, but KC’s pitching is still good enough to hold on. And on that same note, watch to see if New York or Toronto can make a run at the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East. It’s a tough climb (seven games), but the Orioles just lost Manny Machado for the year and could come back to the back. But those are topics for a separate column. For now we’ll just say the AL Central produces the second wild-card.

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Daily Sports: Ninth-Inning Drama In AL Wild-Card Race

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Cleveland and Texas both went to the wire before surviving 6-5 decisions on Thursday night, keeping the Indians a game up on the Rangers for the final wild-card berth. And Tampa Bay finished off a sweep of the Bronx to keep their own lead over Texas at two games as we head into the final weekend. Here’s how last night broke down…

Texas 6 LA Angels 5: Jurickson Profar and Craig Gentry have been a part of the Rangers’ offensive woes this season, but both came up big last night. Gentry had three hits, and Profar delivered the game’s biggest hit, a ninth-inning walkoff off Michael Kohn to snap a 5-5 tie.


Cleveland 6 Minnesota 5: You never quibble over a win at this time of year, no matter how ugly it looks. But Terry Francona has got to be nervous about closer Chris Perez, who gave up four runs in the ninth and had to be pulled as Cleveland held off a final Twins rally.

Recall that Perez also blew a save against the White Sox earlier this week before being bailed out by Jason Giambi’s game-winning home run. With three regular season games left, potential tiebreaker games and then Wednesday’s wild-card game, there’s no room for a dysfunctional closer right now.

Tampa Bay 4 NY Yanks 0: Evan Longoria is locked in right now, going 2-for-4 and driving in three runs. James Loney added three hits of his own as the Rays get a win on a night where the final Yankee Stadium for Mariano Rivera was the big story.

All three teams continue with the same opponents throughout the weekend. The last piece of unfinished business in the National League—beyond seeding– is who wins the Central, and that can be settled tonight by either the Cardinals beating the Cubs or the Reds losing to the Pirates. We know that Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will play again Tuesday night in the wild-card game and whomever wins this weekend series will host that game.

MLB Network starts its Friday night coverage at 8 PM ET, splitting between Indians-Twins and Angels-Rangers. College football rounds out the daily sports agenda with a good game at the midmajor level, with Utah State and San Jose State at 9 PM ET on ESPN. Both have aspirations of winning the Mountain West in a year where Boise is vulnerable. 

MLB Playoff Race: Brewers-Pirates Battle Starts Week

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The Pittsburgh Pirates haven’t won a series in September. The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t lost one since the August 17-19 weekend, and the two teams moving in opposite directions have finally crisscrossed in the standings. The Pirates dropped two of three in Wrigley Field over the weekend, while the Brewers rebounded from a Friday night loss to capture a home series with the New York Mets. Milwaukee has moved a half-game ahead of Pittsburgh in the NL wild-card race, with both teams having to catch Los Angeles and St. Louis.

With 2 ½ weeks to go in the MLB playoff race it’s fair to say the Brewers-Pirates three-game series in Pittsburgh starting Tuesday is virtually an elimination series. Milwaukee’s scoring more runs than any National League team for the month of September and Pittsburgh pitching is giving up more. Clint Hurdle turns to A.J. Burnett in the opener and then to Wandy Rodriguez in the matinee finale on Thursday to see if he can turn the tide, in what will be the biggest series in baseball between now and the weekend, and the biggest matchup between these two sports markets since the Packers-Steelers Super Bowl following the 2010 season.

Pittsburgh might be discouraged with their September pitching, but perhaps no team has more reason to be surprised by September results than the Los Angeles Dodgers do with their offense. In spite of adding Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino and Adrian Gonzalez, the Dodgers have the worst offense in the NL this month. They managed to split four with St. Louis and are still only a game out of the wild-card, but now they make a road trip to Washington to start the week. The Dodgers won’t have to face Gio Gonzalez, the new Nats ace now that Stephen Strasburg is shut down, but now they have to worry about Clayton Kershaw’s health after he was scratched from his start against St. Louis. LA is only a game and a half up on Milwaukee right now and with the way the Brewers are playing, it seems like a matter of time before the Dodgers finally give way.

Los Angeles’ other team, the Angels, is still hanging in. The Halos rebounded from a disastrous series against Oakland last week to pick up a couple weekend wins over Kansas City and hanging within 2.5 games of Baltimore for the final wild-card spot, and Los Angeles has moved past Tampa Bay and Detroit, albeit not by much. Now they take on AL West-leading Texas and have the rotation set for Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Zack Greinke to go. If LAA wins, it tightens up the wild-card race and may also further tighten the AL West race. While the Angels aren’t a factor there, Oakland continues to keep on Texas’ heels. The A’s won a big weekend series over the Orioles at home remain just three games back for a division title that likely also carries the #1 seed in the AL playoffs with it.

Oakland takes on Detroit in Comerica Park starting Tuesday night. The Tigers faced must-win time on the road last week and responded, going 4-2 in Chicago and Cleveland and are still two games out in the AL Central. Before getting to the Oakland series though, the Tigers play a makeup game with the White Sox on Monday afternoon, a makeup of last Thursday’s rainout. Detroit sends Doug Fister, who beat Chicago last Wednesday to the mound this afternoon and will have Justin Verlander lined up for Wednesday night back home. For their part, the White Sox swept three in the Twin Cities with a shutout from Chris Sale on Friday and Francisco Liriano taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Saturday. Chicago plays three against Kansas City starting Tuesday, with Sale set to pitch the finale.

Other series involving contenders are…

Boston-Tampa Bay: It was a disastrous road swing for the Rays as they lost five of six to Baltimore and New York and are now five out in the AL East and four back in the wild-card. The good news? Four home games with Boston start a nine-game diet of Red Sox & Blue Jays that are just the ticket for a team that needs to win a lot of games in a hurry.

Toronto-NY Yanks: All eyes are on Andy Pettite as he returns to the mound for the opener on Tuesday night in the Bronx. Last week was a survival one for the Yanks, who played six close games against Boston & Tampa and managed to win four. But one of the losses came when C.C. Sabathia was roughed up and further underscored how much the Yanks need a big-time pitcher to step up right now.

Baltimore-Seattle: Prior to last weekend in Oakland, the Birds hadn’t lost a series since August 20-22 in Texas. But even just taking one game in Oakland clinched Baltimore’s first winning season since 1997. Now they continue a nine-game road swing with Felix Hernandez awaiting them on Wednesday night.

Houston-St. Louis: Was anything more unexpected this past weekend than Houston taking three of four from Philadelphia? Now the 48-99 Astros take the spoiler game to St. Louis, whose split in Los Angeles salvaged a tough West Coast trip and kept them in the wild-card lead.

Atlanta-Miami: The Braves swept the Nationals this weekend, keeping themselves at least breathing in the NL East race, at 5.5 games back and in complete command on securing at least one wild-card spot. Atlanta also activated Ben Sheets from the disabled list, though he won’t pitch in this series. Kris Medlen will though, as the red-hot starter goes in Wednesday’s finale.

Cincinnati-ChiCubs: Cincy couldn’t take advantage of Miami this weekend, losing two of three, though they remain 4.5 games up on NL West-leading San Francisco for homefield advantage in what would be a Division Series matchup if the season ended today. And even one win for the Reds nudged them closer to Washington for the top seed and right to play the wild-card game winner in the divisional playoff round. The Reds send Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto to the hill on Wednesday.

Colorado-San Francisco: The Giants are pretty well coasting to the finish line and send Madison Bumgarner, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain to the mound against a Colorado team that shows zero signs of wanting to play spoiler.

Philadelphia & Arizona both lost weekend series, to  Houston and San Francisco respectively. The Phils and Diamondbacks are 4 and 4.5 games out, a number that by itself is doable, but the Pirates, Brewers, Dodgers and Cardinals all to catch—in addition to beating out each other, and given the fact that both Philly and Arizona are sub-.500, they both should be moved off the playoff radar screen unless they sweep to start the week. The Phils are in Citi Field to play the Mets, while the Diamondbacks host the Padres.

MLB Playoff Race: Oakland Beats Back LA Angels

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Everything was all set up for the Los Angeles Angels to make one final push in the MLB playoff race.  The talented big-budget team with the enigmatic bullpen was on a roll and a four-game home series with wild-card leading Oakland was just the ticket to get themselves into the lead for one of the two spots in the first-ever American League wild-card game. But the Angels again seem intent on turning Michael Corleone’s quote from Godfather III on its head, in that every time we think they’re in, they pull themselves back out.

Oakland won its third straight game in this series, and sixth overall, as A.J. Griffin tossed eight shutout innings in leading the way to a 4-1 win. Los Angeles got its lone run in the ninth when Albert Pujols, 2-for-12 with two singles in the series coming into the inning, hit a solo home run. Pujols is apparently doing his best A-Rod impersonation in padding his stats when the game is decided. Meanwhile Oakland got hits from eight different players, including two from hot leadoff man Coco Crisp and Yoenis Cespedes homered for the second straight day. The Angels are now 3.5 games back of catching the AL East runner-up for the wild-card slot and throw Jered Weaver into today’s desperation matinee finale. As for Oakland, they are now five up for a wild-card slot and can focus their attention on division-leading Texas, who kept its three-game margin in beating Cleveland.

In the AL East, the Orioles and Yankees created a little space between themselves at Tampa. New York survived a 5-4 game in Boston thanks to some bounceback efforts. Curtis Granderson has awakened from a recent slump and hit two home runs. And the starting pitching, a big issue for New York right now, got some help from David Phelps who pitched 5 2/3 and gave up one run, before the bullpen made it interesting at the end. The Yanks overcame a three-hit night from Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalmacchia who tripled into the triangle (need we even say that the ball went to the deepest part of Fenway if noting that a catcher hit a triple) and homered in the ninth to cut the lead to one run.

Meanwhile the miracle Orioles beat Tampa 3-2. It’s not that Baltimore scored the winning run in the ninth that makes it all so magical. It’s that the Rays managed to lose a low-scoring game where they got nine hits, seven walks and a first-inning home run by B.J. Upton. One would think they’d trip their way into three or four runs. Apparently not, and Tampa now trails its AL East rivals by three games. Both AL East series conclude tonight, Rays-Orioles with a 12:30 PM ET matinee and the Yanks-Sox tonight.

Detroit has put themselves in a perfect position heading into tonight’s finale of their four-game series in Chicago. Their 8-6 win yesterday ensured at least a split on the road and Justin Verlander’s on the mound tonight. Everyone in the lineup hit, including Prince Fielder, who had been quiet in this series until his three-run jack in the fifth busted the game open. Miguel Cabrera and Austin Jackson each delivered three hits apiece. Detroit was cruising until Kevin Youkilis, who drove in four runs, hit a home run that was part of an eighth-inning rally and then Tiger closer Jose Valverede continued his usual routine of making closing a game far more interesting than it needs to be.

The American League has the primary focus this week at TheSportsNotebook with the Tigers-White Sox, Orioles-Rays and A’s-Angels all going down. Tomorrow we’re going to look more in depth at a National League wild-card race that, for the second straight year, is taking on an unbelievable storyline in September. With three teams, St. Louis, Los Angeles and Pittsburgh vying for the second wild-card, the possibility of a longshot seemed like…well, like a longshot. All three teams have slumped, including losses last night for each, the Brewers and Phillies are red-hot and suddenly the latter two teams are over .500 and within three games of a playoff berth. More on the National League race in this space tomorrow.

AL Weekly Report: The Cleveland Indians Join The Wild-Card Fray

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The American League Central is starting to become where the action is as we hit the last day of baseball prior to the All-Star break. The Cleveland Indians have ripped through three successive series against contenders, playing good baseball. Not only are the Tribe keeping pace with the red-hot Chicago White Sox, with only a three-game margin coming into Sunday, but Cleveland is squarely in the middle of the wild-card race and could be even with Baltimore by day’s end.

Cleveland’s gotten a welcome resurgence from starting pitcher Ubaldo Jiminez. The Indians’ starting pitching overall has not been a positive this year with Jiminez, Derek Lowe and Justin Masterson all having ERAs in the mid-4s, but Jiminez has started to put together a string of good outings. He hit his low point back on May 27 when the White Sox shelled him off the mound. Since then, the man Cleveland traded for at last year’s deadline has gone to the mound seven times. Five of his starts meet the generic rating of being “really good” (I know, don’ t hit you with all the sabermetric stuff on a relaxing Sunday afternoon) and the other two have at least been tolerable. To put some numbers behind that, the aggregate shows him working 46 innings in those starts and posting a 2.93 ERA.

Offensively, Cleveland’s gotten terrific seasons from the middle infield. Jason Kipnis at second and Asdrubal Cabrera at short have uncommon power, each hitting 11 home runs. Each get on base consistently and Cabrera in particular is having a dazzling season and has been the American League’s best shortstop in the first half.

But just as the pitching has been aided by a resurgent Jiminez, the biggest boost to the offense has been the revival of rightfielder Shin Soo-Choo. From 2008-10 he was the best rightfielder in the league. Injuries ruined his ’11, and after a slow start it looked like his career had been derailed. Now the numbers are sharp, with a .384 on-base percentage and .484 slugging. Last year Cleveland’s push for the AL Central title failed in part because of Jiminez and Choo were playing well below what was expected (well that, and Justin Verlander in Detroit become an unstoppable freight train). We’ll see if this year’s push succeeds, but it doesn’t look like Choo and Jiminez will be a problem.

What Cleveland does have problems with is power, as they rank 10th in the American League in slugging percentage. They can hope for a little bit of an upgrade from Travis Hafner, who’s slugging .441. But the designated hitter is long removed from his halcyon days of 2007 when he was a top DH in a league that was, at the time, stacked at the position. Cleveland might get a 30-40 point increase out of him in the second half, but there’s nothing in his record of the last five years that would lead us to expect anything more. And that’s about the internal improvement that you can really hope for. Casey Kotchman and first and Jack Hannahan at third are big liabilities. I thought the Indians might get more seriously involved in the Kevin Youkilis sweepstakes when he was traded out of Boston, given Youkilis’ ability to play both spots. And I have to think adding a bat at one of the corner infield spots is going to be a priority in the 23 days between now and the trade deadline.

The Indians have played themselves into wild-card contention and hung on in the face of the White Sox surge by beating contenders. Back on June 27 they were on a five-game losing streak, having just been swept in the Bronx. Cleveland promptly went to Baltimore and took three of four. They won two of three at home against Los Angeles and having taken two of the first three against Tampa, with the finale being played as this goes online. Beating those teams is a good way to move up the ladder, and now the Tribe just need to add some offense and make sure they can stay in the hunt the rest of the way.

Around the rest of the American League…

*No one in the AL East is really playing well, a circumstance that will suit New York just fine. The Yanks hold a six-game lead as they get set to finish the first half in Boston tonight. The second-place Orioles are casting about for pitching help, the Blue Jays just want starters to stay healthy and the Rays & Red Sox are each hoping notable disabled list returns—Evan Longoria and Jacoby Ellsbury—will spur offensive production. But Longoria’s return keeps being delayed, while the Red Sox seem to add a new injury with each passing day (Dustin Pedroia being the latest). It’s looking less and less likely that Tampa or Boston can make a run, which means it likely falls to Baltimore to make the AL East a race. Which means unless they can swing a deal for some significant pitching help—they’re rumored to be in the mix for Milwaukee’s Zack Greinke—the second half in this division will just be the Yankees playing for seeding position and everyone else playing for  wild-cards.

*Detroit has joined Cleveland in hanging in there behind Chicago and looking set to join the wild-card fray. The Tigers have nudged over .500 and are 4.5 back of the White Sox, and 2.5 back in the wild-card race.

*And is anything more stunning that looking at your wild-card standings and seeing the Oakland A’s lurking, just 3.5 games back? I don’t think this can last, but then again who thought they’d even be doing this well—or that Baltimore would be the team they’re trying to catch?