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AL Division Series

AL Division Series Preview

The American League is where the heavyweights are. The Red Sox, Astros and Yankees are all 100-win teams. The Indians are just two years removed from an AL pennant and have a two-time World Series winner in Terry Francona in the dugout. Two really good teams are going to go home early with a bad taste in their mouths. Here’s a look at the AL Division Series matchups of Yankees-Red Sox & Indians-Astros…

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Red Sox (1) vs. Yankees (WC)
The sheer star power in the everyday lineups is the first thing to stand out. Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, the fabulous Boston combo are likely to finish 1-2 in the MVP voting. Each finished with on-base percentages over .400 and slugging percentages that cleared .600. Xander Bogaerts & Andrew Benintendi both lurk as players who can take over a short series.

On the Yankee side, Aaron Judge is healthy and rolling, as his two-run homer that got the wild-card win over the A’s demonstrated. Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Miguel Andujar and Didi Gregorious round out the elite talent.

Whose big hitters will perform better in a short series is anyone’s guess, and an X-factor with these two teams is which relatively obscure player or past-prime veteran will make an impact. On the Boston side, Brock Holt has a .362 on-base percentage and has been an invaluable utility player all year. Eduardo Nunez seems to have a clutch gene in him. Jackie Bradley Jr. already dominates defensively and has the ability to hit better than his regular season numbers indicate.

New York has 34-year-old Brett Gardner, whose numbers are in decline and who has seen his playing time decrease. He’s also about the last person that Red Sox fans (like myself) would want to see hit in a close game late. Gleyber Torres, the talented second baseman can take over a series with his bat and glove. Luke Voit, another wild-card hero, hit 14 home runs in 39 games and rescued the Yankee first base job from the disappointment that is Greg Bird.

But ultimately, this series likely comes down to the pitching matchup between the Boston rotation and the New York bullpen. The Red Sox come at you with Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello and Craig Kimbrel to close Fourth starter Eduardo Rodriguez has generally pitched well in the Bronx. The Yankees have no less than three pitchers (Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Zach Britton) in their bullpen with lights-out stuff. David Robertson and Chad Green round out a pen that will be consistently emptied by manager Aaron Boone.

The statistic that overrides everything else in this series is 5.26. That’s the combined postseason ERA of Sale, Price, Porcello and Kimbrel in over 120 innings of work. The second-most important statistic is “2”, which is the number of playoff wins the Red Sox rotation has. The most Red Sox Nation can latch onto is that about 75 percent of that October failure is on Price. Maybe somebody’s going to prove themselves this postseason. But I wouldn’t bet on it. New York wins this in four games.

Astros (2) vs. Indians (3)
From a standpoint of media coverage, this will be the “other” American League playoff series, but from the standpoint of baseball, this is a heavyweight fight from a pair of proven teams. These are the last two pennant winners. The pitching battle of Justin Verlander for Houston against Cleveland’s Corey Kluber for Game 1 is positively mouth-watering and it looms again later in the series.

The Indians made some valuable pickups at the trade deadline (Josh Donaldson, Brad Hand) and got Andrew Miller healthy..The Astros are the smart money choice this October, a 7-2 betting favorite to win a repeat World Series title.

The biggest thing that stands out is the number of quality players in this series who didn’t have very good regular season numbers. Most notably, Houston shortstop Carlos Correa struggled to a stat line of .323 on-base percentage/.405 slugging percentage. Marwin Gonzalez was off. Even Jose Altuve, whose stat line of .386/.451 was good, can do more. On the Cleveland side, Jason Kipnis was a train wreck early on and his final numbers of .315/.389 are putrid, but he did stabilize as the year went on.

This is significant, because while regular season performance in a single year impacts how these teams are perceived going into the playoffs, they are not the best indicators of what a player is likely to do going forward. The best predictor of that is a multi-year evaluation and all of these players are good bets to lift their games in October.

Both teams have stacked rotations behind Verlander and Kluber and both have deep bullpens. The difference? The Astro pen, a big liability last year, is now a strength and exceptionally deep. And while the 2 thru 4 spots in each team’s rotation are good, Houston has a pair of potential #1s there, in Gerrit Cole and Dallas Keuchel. There’s just too much talent on this Astro team to ignore. The games are all going to be good, but the ultimate ending will be lopsided. Houston sweeps.

The Price Isn’t Right In The Playoffs

The road teams continued to control the MLB postseason as both Lone Star teams grabbed the early leads in the American League Division Series. The Texas Rangers got it started with a 5-3 win in Toronto yesterday afternoon and the Houston Astros finished it at night with a 5-2 victory at defending AL champ Kansas City. Here’s some thoughts on those games…

*As I watching the Rangers-Blue Jays game, something about David Price’s postseason history was gnawing at me. It seemed like it hadn’t been very good. But then I thought maybe I was just making too much of his getting knocked around by the Red Sox in Game 2 of the 2013 ALDS. Then as the game ended, the graphic was posted—Price is 0-6 as a starter as the postseason.

This has to be one most underrated stats out there. It’s ironic, because Price’s playoff career got off to a great start on Tampa Bay’s 2008 AL pennant winner. Pitching in relief, he got an ALCS Game 2 win over the Red Sox. Then in Game 7 he got the biggest out of the series, retiring J.D. Drew with two outs and the bases loaded in a 3-1 game. But since then it’s been all downhill.

Price’s starts have been along the lines of yesterday. He hasn’t been lit up and his team had a chance to win, so perhaps that’s why it moves under the radar, while Clayton Kershaw gets the media heat for his radical meltdowns of the last two postseasons. But with Kershaw’s problems limited to the Cardinals, while Price has had issues with several teams, maybe it’s time to make the Toronto ace’s October performances more of the media focus.

*The Texas lineup remains really underrated and it was demonstrated yesterday. It was the 8-9 spots in the batting order that did the biggest damage, with Robinson Chirinos and Rougned Odor each going deep. They don’t have the big names and they didn’t make the cover of Sports Illustrated like Toronto’s hitters did, but this Ranger lineup is steady throughout.

*The quality of pitches by the Rangers, mainly starter Yovani Gallardo, was outstanding yesterday. They consistently kept offspeed pitches down and away. Toronto’s hitters had some good at-bats—you saw a lot of good takes on balls that just missed the strike zone. If the Ranger pitchers execute like this through the series, they’re going to win, but Jose Bautista’s loud home run on a pitch that got up shows there’s not much room for error.

*Moving over to the Houston-Kansas City game, I’m starting to rethink my view of Astro closer Luke Gregorson. I viewed him as a liability, at least by postseason standards and especially when compared to his Royal counterparts. I’ve now watched him close two playoff wins on the road and I’m impressed.

Not because he got the save—tell any average major league pitcher he just has to get three outs and he’ll probably do it. And I’m not altering my opinion based on two appearances. But there’s just a way he carries himself and his demeanor that inspires confidence. I’ve been rooting for the Astros thus far and after watching Gregorson throw just a couple pitches in each outing, I settle into a “we got this” mindset. We’ll see if that’s real, or just a state of mind.

*Colby Rasmus has been written off in both St. Louis and Toronto and he’s taking full advantage of his chance on the October stage. Another long home run to rightfield yesterday follows his big blast in Yankee Stadium in the wild-card game. He was considered a top prospect, but also hard to deal with. Right now he’s just hard for opposing pitchers to deal with.

We move into a Friday Foursome today, with the American League coming right back in the afternoon for their Game 2s, and the National League opening up tonight. Here’s the schedule:

Rangers-Blue Jays (12:45 PM ET, MLB)—Texas beat Toronto’s hired gun in David Price. Now the Jays have to return the favor against Cole Hamels.

Astros-Royals  (3:30 PM ET, FS1)—Another hired gun, Johnny Cueto is all but pitching for the Royals season, as Dallas Kuechel is lying in wait back in Houston for Game 3.

Cubs-Cardinals (6:30 PM ET, TBS)—Jon Lester beat the Cardinals twice in the 2013 World Series for the Red Sox. Can he do it now for the Cubbies?

Mets-Dodgers (9:30 PM ET, TBS)—Kershaw looks to avoid following in Price’s footsteps with another October loss.

AL Division Series Preview: Can Toronto & KC Hold Off Their Lone Star Challenges?

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The Kansas City Royals are the defending American League champs and hold the top seed in this year’s AL playoffs. The Toronto Blue Jays are scorching hot and the betting favorite to win the World Series entering the postseason. Both favorites take the field today against the underdogs from the Lone Star State, as the Royals meet the Houston Astros and the Blue Jays host the Texas Rangers. Here’s a look at how those series match up.

RANGERS-BLUE JAYS

When I say Las Vegas loves the Jays, they really love them some Blue Jays. Toronto is a big (-250) favorite to win this best-of-five series. When you compare the lineups, that number looks excessive.

Toronto’s offense is all it’s cracked up to be. Josh Donaldson, the likely AL MVP, a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarcion are all complete offensive players who can get on base consistently and hit the ball for power. Russell Martin is a steady offensive threat and keep an eye on Ben Revere. The leftfielder finished the season with a .354 on-base percentage and that’s the kind of hitter that can sneak in key base hits here and there amidst a power lineup.

The Blue Jays don’t lack for pitching, with David Price set to go for Game 1 and presumably for a Game 5. I love manager John Gibbons’ decision to give young Marcus Stroman the ball for Game 2. Stroman went 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in four starts and has a live arm. It would be tempting to play the “experience” card and go with R.A. Dickey or Mark Buehrle in this spot. But given the choice, playing the “talent” card is better.

Toronto’s bullpen doesn’t have big names, but it goes very deep. So what then, is the problem with making them a big favorite?

The problem has nothing to do with the Jays. It’s the fact that Texas actually has some major league talent on its roster too. They don’t have the raw star power of the Blue Jay lineup, but I’m looking at seven players who have been solid offensive threats—Chris Giminez, Mitch Moreland, Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli, Delino DeShields, Shin-Soo Choo and Prince Fielder.

Napoli found a career revival after being traded back here (he was on the 2011 team that nearly won the World Series) and had a .396 on-base percentage and .513 slugging percentage since coming to the Rangers. Choo has merely been one of the most quietly productive offensive players in baseball down the stretch.

We also haven’t included Elvis Andrus who can be capable of much more than his .309 on-base percentage and Rougned Odor, who still slugged .465, even as he struggled to get on base consistently. The bottom line is that there is no obvious liability anywhere in the Texas lineup.

What about the pitching? Texas was hurt by the fact they had to go to the last day of the season to clinch the AL West, thereby needing Cole Hamels to pitch on Sunday. The ace will be pushed back to Game 2. Yovani Gallardo, who won 13 games with a 3.42 ERA pitches this afternoon against Price.

The Ranger bullpen merits a very slight edge over the Jays’. Both are steady and long, but the way Shawn Tolleson has come on in the closer’s role, closing 35 saves in 37 chances with a 2.99 ERA give me slightly more confidence in him than counterpart Roberto Osuna, who was 20/23 with 2.58 ERA. That’s a very slight difference, solely because Tolleson’s been in the role a bit longer.

Where this series will ultimately be decided is in the middle of the pitching rotations. Colby Lewis, Martin Perez and Derek Holland are the options for Ranger manager Jeff Bannister for Games 3 & 4. All have ERAs in the mid-4s or higher. Lewis though, was a clutch performer in the postseason runs this franchise had in 2010-11 and he still managed to win 17 games this year. Whether he, or Perez or Holland can find a way to get it done is what determines who will advance.

Given that, I’ll place a slight edge of confidence in Toronto. But never would I bet (-250) on it. This series is much closer.

ASTROS-ROYALS

I was surprised to see Kansas City was only a (-140) favorite in this series. I was ready to shout from the rooftops that it was time to bet the Royals. Then I dug in a little deeper and I’m not so sure.

We do have to begin with the most obvious disadvantage Houston faces and it’s that Dallas Keuchel had to pitch the wild-card game and won’t be available until Game 3. This is the same hurdle that San Francisco had to overcome last year in this round—they didn’t have Madison Bumgarner until the third game of their series with the Nationals. Frisco had veterans like Jake Peavy that got it done for them. Does Houston have the same?

They don’t have vets, but there’s a lot to like about this pitching staff. Collin McHugh, the Game 1 starter, won 19 games with a 3.89 ERA. The Astros have good options further down the rotation with arms like Mike Fiers and Lance McCullers, each of whom ended the year with ERAs under 3.40.

The rotation key for Houston is Game 2 starter Scott Kazmir. He was acquired from Oakland at the trade deadline and hasn’t been as good as he was with the A’s, going 2-6 with a 4.17 ERA since becoming an Astro.

But this rotation still looks better on paper than Kansas City’s. The big question for the Royals is what Johnny Cueto will show up. Is it the one who was an elite pitcher in Cincinnati, who was robbed of Cy Young Awards in 2012 and 2014 and was acquired by the Royals to be their ace down the stretch? Or is it the one who’s gone 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA since being in Kansas City these last couple months.

Manager Ned Yost told us a lot when he pushed Cueto back to Game 2 and opted for Yordano Ventura, whose ERA is up over 4 himself. KC has a decent Game 3 starter in Edinson Volquez, but he’s not anyone that a team countering with Kuechel would worry about. Even with the Houston ace only able to pitch once, the Astros will have an edge in starting pitching…unless Cueto can find his old form and right away.

Kansas City still has a potent lineup and a strong bullpen. The Royals have six offensive players that are complete packages—Eric Hosmer, Ben Zobrist, Mike Moustakas, Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain and Kendry Morales. They get some additional power from Salvador Perez at the catcher spot. The bullpen, even with closer Greg Holland out for the year, still has one of the game’s best all-around relievers in Wade Davis. They still have the power arm of Kelvin Herrera. They can still fill out with Chris Young, Franklin Morales and maybe drop starter Kris Medlen into the pen for some long relief.

The question is whether Houston can take advantage of the soft starting pitching and get an early lead, and whether the Astros can then hold those leads.

We saw the Houston offensive gameplan on display Tuesday night in New York. They don’t get runners on base consistently—only Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer and maybe Carlos Gomez can really be counted on here. The power game is much better, where these same four players, along with Luis Valbuena, Colby Rasmus and Evan Gattis can go deep. But winning one game with the long ball is different than trying to win a best-of-five that way.

I’m also not confident in the Houston bullpen. It’s not bad—no team still playing baseball has a truly bad bullpen, but it’s not comparable to Kansas City’s.

I would point at Carlos Gomez as the key player in this series for Houston. He’s the one who can add power, steadiness at getting on base and defensive prowess if he’s healthy and has his head screwed on straight, both of which are touch and go at any given time.

Consequently, I give Houston a much better shot than was the case when I first glanced at that (-140) series price. But I still lean Kansas City.

So the favorites will prevail and set up a Toronto-Kansas City ALCS matchup. Both those feisty Lone Star underdogs—both of whom I’m rooting for—will make these next few days plenty interesting.

Orioles & Royals Complete AL Division Series Sweeps

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The Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals punched their tickets to the American League Championship Series, each completing three-game sweeps of the AL’s betting favorites, the Detroit Tigers and Los Angeles Angels. Here’s a brief look back on their Game 3 wins in the AL Division Series…

Baltimore 2 Detroit 1: Earlier this year, I was at an Orioles-Brewers game in Milwaukee where I live. I was with a hard-core Orioles fan, who told me that while he loved Buck Showalter and felt him to be the best current manager in baseball, that Buck could do some head-scratching things from a strategy perspective.
BaseballSure enough, that night, Buck summoned an intentional walk to put the winning run on base, so the pitcher had to bad with two outs (it was in the 10th inning of a game that had seen both managers fire a lot of bullets). I defended the move, my friend criticized it in advance. The pitcher hit a double to the wall to score the winning run.
Fast forward to early evening in Detroit yesterday. The Tigers trail 2-1 and have a man on second with one out. Buck again puts the winning run on base, so he can face the bottom of the order. Say this for the Baltimore skipper—he sticks to his guns. This time, closer Zach Britton induced the double-play ground ball that clinched it.
Later this week, I’m going to issue MVP awards for each Division Series. I haven’t look at the complete series stats yet, but Nelson Cruz is certainly up for discussion and his two-run homer for the only Oriole runs added to his case.
There’s a lot of soul-searching going on in Detroit, but the reality is this—the Orioles were a better team. You don’t need advanced sabermetrics or a complete scouting report. You just need access to the standings—Baltimore won 96 games and Detroit won 90. That’s not an insignificant differential.
Their “three Cy Young winners” were all Cy Young winners whose best years had been in seasons other than 2014, and in the case of Justin Verlander and David Price, none pitched as well as any of the top four Oriole starters in this particular season. The ability of the Baltimore staff was shown clearly yesterday when Bud Norris matched zeroes with Price, until Cruz’s home run finally broke the ice.
So enough about what a shocking upset this was. The better team advanced. And while I won’t say enough about the Detroit bullpen—it’s a real problem and has been for some time—it wasn’t the only reason for the series loss. When a mildly inferior team loses a series that was, in each individual game, extremely close (Game 1 didn’t get ugly until the eighth inning), it shouldn’t send shock waves through baseball.

Kansas City 8 LA Angels 3: This one should send shock waves through baseball. That the Royals won the series isn’t a shock—I didn’t predict it, but once they got past Jered Weaver in Game 1, you knew the Angels were in trouble. Any team with deep pitching has an edge in the postseason, and Kansas City has that, more so than the Angels.
It’s the power surge of KC that’s shocking, with Eric Hosmer hitting his second home run of the series to help blow this open. Alex Gordon ripped a bases-clearing double early on, and though the Angels made various noises during the game—solo shots from Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, a four-hit from Erick Aybar—the night was one long party in Kansas City.
And not just the power surge, but the sweep. This is the first time that the team with the best record in baseball has lost a Division Series in a sweep. The lesson? Depth counts. The Los Angeles pitching staff couldn’t match up in the bullpen, and once Weaver was finished, couldn’t match up in the rotation.
The American League Championship Series begins Friday in Baltimore.
The National League resumes its Division Series action today. The San Francisco Giants look to close out their own sweep of the Washington Nationals at 5 PM ET today, sending Madison Bumgarner to the mound to face Doug Fister.
And the one series we know isn’t ending in three straight is the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers. The pivotal Game 3 is a 9 PM ET, with John Lackey facing Hyun-Jin Ru. I picked St. Louis to win this series and stand by it. But if they don’t win this game at home, the outlook will be bleak.
 

Blasts From The Past For Kansas City & Baltimore Open AL Division Series

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A left-handed hitting third baseman hits a clutch home run for the Kansas City Royals. The Baltimore Orioles win a postseason game with pitching and home runs. Somewhere upstairs, George Brett and Earl Weaver were smiling (though in Brett’s case “upstairs” just means his box at the game, with Weaver’s reference being eternity-based). Baltimore started the AL Division Series round by beating Detroit 12-3, and then Kansas City won the nightcap at the Los Angeles Angels 3-2 in 11 innings.

Mike Moustakas won it for the Royals with an 11th-inning home run. The Orioles got an early home run from Nelson Cruz to get a 2-0 lead and then a huge solo blast from J.J. Hardy to make the game 4-2 in the seventh, before the Birds finally blew it open in the eighth. But beyond the home runs, the biggest story of each game was the bullpens.
It’s a predictable storyline. The Orioles and Royals each have deep bullpens and it’s their biggest edge in their respective series.  Baltimore starter Chris Tillman pitched reasonably well, but Detroit hitters did a terrific job driving up his pitch count, particularly Ian Kinsler who generously provided souvenir foul balls to the fans down the first base line, repeatedly spoiling two-strike pitches. Tillman got through five innings, but it took him 105 pitches to do it.
BaseballDetroit only trailed 3-2 when Oriole manager Buck Showalter went to the bullpen, and that’s normally a good formula for winning. But not against Baltimore. Showalter emptied the pen, going through Andrew Miller, Darren O’Day and Zach Britton to still hold a 4-3 lead after eight.
Britton would have come in for the ninth, but when the Tigers melted down and allowed an eight-run inning, Showalter let Tommy Hunter finish up. Even that probably works out well for Baltimore—they need Hunter in this series and he was able to get some work in a low-pressure situation.
The Tiger bullpen has been this team’s problem area for at least three years, and the eight-run inning was just the latest manifestation. It’s the risk that comes with assuming they can just ride Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price to victory in this, or any other postseason series. Those pitchers have no room for error. Scherzer pitched well, but the mistakes to Cruz and Hardy were all it took for Baltimore to get ahead—even if the game had been tied when the Detroit starter left, the edge would still have shifted dramatically to the Orioles.
Kansas City manager Ned Yost was no less aggressive with his own bullpen. He removed Jason Vargas after six innings, even with the score tied 2-2 and gave his relief corps a chance to win it. Neddy went through seven relievers, in part because Kelvin Herrera had to leave after one batter in the seventh with forearm tightness (he’s day-to-day), but it worked. The bullpen gave up one hit in five innings of work and eventually Moustakas struck the blow that won the game.

The loss is a bigger deal for Los Angeles than it is for Detroit. The Angels lost at home, and the dropoff from Weaver to #2 starter Matt Shoemaker and from there to the rest of the staff is steep. Kansas City is also assured that staff ace James Shields’ start in Game 3 will be, at worst, the pivot game of the series, rather than must-win.
The Tigers lost on the road and they still have Verlander and Price the next two games. Detroit can restore order for themselves if they win today, and frankly, even if they fall behind 0-2, it’s not over.
Game 2 of both series go today, as they bookend a quadruple header of baseball, with the National League swinging into action. Detroit-Baltimore is at noon ET, with Verlander facing Wei-Yin Chen. The Royals-Angels game is the nightcap, at 9:30 PM ET, with Yordano Ventura and Shoemaker on the mound.