It was a great day for ACC football this past Saturday, as the conference went 11-0 in non-conference games, including the most notable result of the day, Virginia Tech’s 35-21 win at Ohio State. Here’s the Notebook Nine on the ACC, the nine notable items about the league after two weeks and moving forward…
*Virginia Tech is now rightly included in any playoff conversation, but I think it’s probably more realistic to talk about the Hokies’ Orange Bowl prospects. The conference has a guaranteed slot in the Orange, and if you assume that Florida State is going to make the College Football Playoff, that makes the race for South Beach wide open. And VT took a big step toward grabbing that slot.
*It’s no surprise that the key to Virginia Tech’s win on Saturday, and why they will continue to win moving forward is defense. They’ve got a solid front four, and most important, they have lockdown corners. When you have a coordinator like Bud Foster that’s not afraid to blitz, giving him lockdown talent on the outside is an invitation to attack. *North Carolina was the nominal preseason favorite in the Coastal Division, where VT resides, the side of the league that’s opposite Florida State and Clemson. The Tar Heels haven’t had a statement moment—in fact, they had to rally to beat San Diego State at home after trailing 31-27. But UNC is getting solid play from sophomore quarterback Marquise Williams, a candidate for league MVP and have no reason to back down from their own expectations.
*Speaking of league MVP candidates and Coastal Division contenders, how about Pitt and running back James Connor? The Panthers are 2-0, including a road win at Boston College. Connor has piled up 366 yards and has the look of the heir apparent to a tradition that includes Tony Dorsett, Craig “Iron Head” Heyward and Curtis Martin. The downside? Pitt center Artie Rowell was lost for the year, so we’ll see how that affects the running game moving forward.
*Keeping with the Coastal contenders, Duke is the team that won this division last year and has the great pass-catch combo of Anthony Boone and Jamison Crowder. It will be a couple weeks before we know too much about the Dookies though. They’ll be 4-0 when they go to Miami on September 27.
*Georgia Tech hasn’t looked impressive enough to suggest they can win the Coastal, needing three interceptions to key a win over Tulane. But at the same time, the Green Wave aren’t bad, and the Yellow Jackets still look likely to knock off a contender or two in the process. On September 20, they start a four games-in-five weeks run that has road trips to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, with home dates against Miami and Duke. The guess here is that GT wins two of those games. Who survives the triple option ends up winning the division.
*Moving to the Atlantic, it’s asking a lot for Bobby Petrino’s Louisville team to dethrone Florida State, but the Cards are very much in the Orange Bowl picture, especially after the Labor Day beating of Miami. Louisville will get a lot of hype after a near-certain 5-0 start, but there’s a long tough stretch ahead. In October they go to Clemson, play Florida State on a Thursday night and then in November the Cards go to Notre Dame. In short, don’t get too excited too quickly about Louisville.
*Let’s close with the defending national champs. The talk now is whether Florida State is overrated, after struggling past Oklahoma State in the August 30 opener and a ho-hum 37-12 win over the Citadel. I guess that depends on where you rated them to begin with. If you considered them the college version of the Seattle Seahawks, that would look like a top-heavy favorite and cruise home without a problem, then the answer is yes. But let’s say you’re a coach, you assume every top contender has problems and you have to decide which contender’s problems are most manageable. Would you pick Florida State to coach? I would.
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It was a great day for ACC football this past Saturday, as the conference went 11-0 in non-conference games, including the most notable result of the day, Virginia Tech’s 35-21 win at Ohio State. Here’s the Notebook Nine on the ACC, the nine notable items about the league after two weeks and moving forward…
*Virginia Tech is now rightly included in any playoff conversation, but I think it’s probably more realistic to talk about the Hokies’ Orange Bowl prospects. The conference has a guaranteed slot in the Orange, and if you assume that Florida State is going to make the College Football Playoff, that makes the race for South Beach wide open. And VT took a big step toward grabbing that slot.
*It’s no surprise that the key to Virginia Tech’s win on Saturday, and why they will continue to win moving forward is defense. They’ve got a solid front four, and most important, they have lockdown corners. When you have a coordinator like Bud Foster that’s not afraid to blitz, giving him lockdown talent on the outside is an invitation to attack.
*North Carolina was the nominal preseason favorite in the Coastal Division, where VT resides, the side of the league that’s opposite Florida State and Clemson. The Tar Heels haven’t had a statement moment—in fact, they had to rally to beat San Diego State at home after trailing 31-27. But UNC is getting solid play from sophomore quarterback Marquise Williams, a candidate for league MVP and have no reason to back down from their own expectations.
*Speaking of league MVP candidates and Coastal Division contenders, how about Pitt and running back James Connor? The Panthers are 2-0, including a road win at Boston College. Connor has piled up 366 yards and has the look of the heir apparent to a tradition that includes Tony Dorsett, Craig “Iron Head” Heyward and Curtis Martin. The downside? Pitt center Artie Rowell was lost for the year, so we’ll see how that affects the running game moving forward.
*Keeping with the Coastal contenders, Duke is the team that won this division last year and has the great pass-catch combo of Anthony Boone and Jamison Crowder. It will be a couple weeks before we know too much about the Dookies though. They’ll be 4-0 when they go to Miami on September 27.
*Georgia Tech hasn’t looked impressive enough to suggest they can win the Coastal, needing three interceptions to key a win over Tulane. But at the same time, the Green Wave aren’t bad, and the Yellow Jackets still look likely to knock off a contender or two in the process. On September 20, they start a four games-in-five weeks run that has road trips to Virginia Tech and North Carolina, with home dates against Miami and Duke. The guess here is that GT wins two of those games. Who survives the triple option ends up winning the division.
*Moving to the Atlantic, it’s asking a lot for Bobby Petrino’s Louisville team to dethrone Florida State, but the Cards are very much in the Orange Bowl picture, especially after the Labor Day beating of Miami. Louisville will get a lot of hype after a near-certain 5-0 start, but there’s a long tough stretch ahead. In October they go to Clemson, play Florida State on a Thursday night and then in November the Cards go to Notre Dame. In short, don’t get too excited too quickly about Louisville.
*Let’s close with the defending national champs. The talk now is whether Florida State is overrated, after struggling past Oklahoma State in the August 30 opener and a ho-hum 37-12 win over the Citadel. I guess that depends on where you rated them to begin with. If you considered them the college version of the Seattle Seahawks, that would look like a top-heavy favorite and cruise home without a problem, then the answer is yes. But let’s say you’re a coach, you assume every top contender has problems and you have to decide which contender’s problems are most manageable. Would you pick Florida State to coach? I would.
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ACC football finally made its mark in 2013, a year highlighted by Florida State’s dominating regular season and thrilling win over Auburn to claim the national championship. But the season was also marked by Clemson knocking off Ohio State in the Orange Bowl, the feel-good story of Duke, and solid bowl performances from North Carolina, Syracuse and Pitt.
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Even the biggest postseason disappointment, Miami, was cancelled out by the fact the Hurricanes got crushed by Louisville—who arrives in the ACC this season.
The league now looks to build off the momentum, with Florida State the favorite to repeat as national champs, high hopes elsewhere and Notre Dame now appearing on the schedules of ACC schools as its partnership (though not membership) begins in 2014.
Our ACC football preview will break the conference down by tiers…
THE FRONTRUNNER & THE CHALLENGER
Florida State might be head-and-shoulders above the league, but Clemson at least has the honor of being head-and-shoulders above everybody else. These two teams are on the same side of the league and their September 20 game in Tallahassee will all but determine the Atlantic Division champ and anoint the conference favorite.
The Seminoles bring back thirteen starters, evenly distributed throughout their lineup, and of course they have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jameis Winston back for his sophomore season.
There’s no football-related reason to pick against FSU, but there are some intangibles working against them. Winston can’t seem to keep himself out of trouble, whether it’s something as serious as sexual assault or as trivial as walking out of the cafeteria with unpaid for crabs. It adds up to distractions in an environment where head coach Jimbo Fischer already has to worry about keeping his team focused and ready for everyone’s best shot.
It’s worth noting that even the Alabama teams that won three national titles in four years only went undefeated once. In this age of greater parity and more games, the 14-0 that Florida State pulled off last year is far from easy, even if they’ll be the favorite in each game individually.
Fortunately for the Seminoles, so long as they beat Clemson, they’ll likely be in Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game and be in position for a berth in the four-team College Football Playoff even if there’s a stumble somewhere else on the schedule.
Clemson’s win over Ohio State was a breakthrough win for a program that’s been consistently successful under Dabo Swinney, but needed a high-impact national moment. Tajh Boyd is no longer at quarterback, but this could be a different kind of Clemson team.
This year’s Tigers have experience back on defense and on the offensive line. Boyd’s passing and a wide-open offense have won the team some shootouts, including the Orange Bowl. While a year’s experience isn’t going to turn a soft unit into the Seattle Seahawks, it does have the potential to at least make Clemson physically tougher.
A WILD COASTAL DIVISION
There are seven teams on each side of the ACC. If the Atlantic provides the excellence, then the Coastal provides the excitement, with six of the seven teams having a legitimate chance and making it to Charlotte.
Duke: The Blue Devils were the nice story who won the division last year and then nearly upset Texas A&M in the Chick-fil-A Bowl before Johnny Manziel pulled one last rabbit out of his hat for college football fans. Anthony Boone is back at quarterback, he’s got a great playmaker in Jamison Crowder to throw to, and there’s a veteran secondary on defense.
Theoretically, I can see Duke winning it again. But in practice, is this really a program that’s good enough to win consecutive division titles, when the luck factor can turn for the worse and opponents don’t overlook you? Duke could be just as good, but still not replicate last year’s 10-2 run through the regular season.
North Carolina: UNC is a slight betting favorite to win the Coastal this season. Larry Fedora is in his third year in Chapel Hill, has already won 16 games in two seasons and he’s got a terrific dual threat quarterback in Marquise Williams and six starters back on defense, two on each tier.
The key question—does three starters back on the offensive line mean this unit will be good? Or does the fact two of the returnees are sophomores, along with a new freshman starting, mean the O-Line will still be too young.
Miami & Virginia Tech: For the better part of a decade, these two programs have played big games in the Coastal Division, and each are tied in the eyes of Las Vegas. Both are 12-1 shots to win the ACC title, narrowly behind North Carolina’s 10-1.
The Virginia Tech offense has a significant rebuild ahead, with quarterback Logan Thomas back. Although Thomas seemed to be fighting a one-man crusade so frequently, that perhaps a rebuild is the best thing anyway. The Hokie secondary is going to be very good, and Frank Beamer, along with defensive coordinator Bud Foster always get something going on the front seven.
Miami was poised to win this division last year until a November collapse. The Hurricanes are going to run the ball very well, with Duke Johnson running behind a good offensive line. The defense looks decent up front and strong in the secondary. There’s uncertainty at quarterback, but after the up-and-down career of Stephen Morris, that’s not a bad thing.
The biggest uncertainty is with this program. When the Hurricanes joined the ACC along with the Hokies in 2004, it would have seemed unthinkable that Miami would never even play in the conference championship game. But that’s where we’re at ten years later. Can the ‘Canes finally find a way to start winning their biggest games?
Georgia Tech: Since their ACC championship of 2009, the Yellow Jackets have been in a rut of being an above-average bowl team, but not a lot more. They’re still running the triple option under the leadership of Paul Johnson, and there’s nothing in the returning personnel that suggests a change from the last few years—for better or for worse.
Pitt: The Panthers would kill to be in the rut Georgia Tech is. Pitt is locked in on .500, be it under current head coach Paul Chryst, or his predecessors. But the Panthers stepped up and beat Notre Dame a year ago, and they also won a bowl game against a good Bowling Green team. There’s experience throughout the lineup and if Chryst can replace quarterback Tom Savage, the Panthers will improve. And while Savage was drafted into the NFL by the Houston Texans, it’s not like he ever reminded anyone on campus of Dan Marino to begin with.
ATLANTIC DIVISION BOWL HOPEFULS
If either of these teams were onthe other side of the conference, they could aspire to at least winning a division. In the Atlantic, they’ll have to settle for aiming at a solid bowl season…
Louisville: I could be underrating the Cardinals. Las Vegas certainly things so—Louisville is rated even with Clemson as a challenger to Florida State, thanks to the hiring of Bobby Petrino. I think that’s a stretch—Charlie Strong was an excellent head coach before leaving for Texas and Teddy Bridgewater is not going to be easily replaced at quarterback.
There’s still a veteran offensive line, a running game led by Dominique Brown, and a great receiver in Devante Parker. But there’s defensive problems and a quarterback has to be found. Louisville can still be good—as in eight-win kind of good—and if everything breaks right, they could knock off Clemson. But unlike the Tigers, the Cardinals cannot aspire to even a puncher’s chance at edging out Florida State.
Syracuse: A bowl upset of Minnesota brings the Orangemen and second-year coach Steve Shafer into 2014 with a lot of positive momentum. I like this team a lot—they’re experienced in both lines, and Terrell Hunt is a quarterback who runs like a truck. Just building on that will make Syracuse a pretty good team. If Hunt’s passing develops, they can think bigger things.
FOUR LONGSHOTS
Six wins and a bowl game would be a huge victory for any of these teams….
Boston College: I feel bad about putting BC in this group. Head coach Steve Addazio did a terrific job, lifting from the Eagles from 2-10 to 7-5 a year ago, and running back Andre Williams finished second in the Heisman voting. But there’s a huge rebuilding job this year. Addazio will get everything back on track in Chestnut Hill for 2015.
N.C. State: Oddsmakers like the Wolfpack the best in this group of four longshots. Head coach Dave Doeren has to be wondering why he left Northern Illinois so quickly, prior to their Orange Bowl game in 2012 and before waiting to see what other offers would lineup. N.C. State went winless in the ACC this year and while they won’t be that bad this year, I don’t see it getting a whole lot better.
Wake Forest: Another head coach who won a MAC title now comes to the ACC for a reclamation project. Dave Clawson led Bowling Green to a conference championship and now inherits a program that had lost momentum under Jim Grobe. The Deacons have been soft up front in recent years, and Clawson’s first priority will have to rebuilding both sides of the trenches.
Virginia: Mike London is on a serious hot seat and there’s talk he may not even survive the season. If the negative momentum overwhelms the program, London won’t be able to stop it. But if he keeps the attention of his kids, UVA has the makings of a good defense and a good running game with Kevin Parks. It’s reasonable that can get six wins, a bowl and maybe another year for the embattled head coach.
PREDICTION
I don’t see a lot of point in swimming against the tide when it comes to the ACC title. Florida State is going to win it again and it’s not going to be all that close. I have no doubt about picking North Carolina to come out of the Coastal. I love the job Fedora is doing, love Williams at quarterback and love the way they finished the season in 2013.
Everything was all set for the remainder of the ACC football season to be simple. Florida State’s anticipated 59-3 wipeout of Wake Forest formally clinched the Seminoles’ spot in the conference championship game and coupled with Oregon’s loss at Stanford, FSU has complete control of the push for a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.
All that was needed was for Miami to take care of business on Saturday night against Virginia Tech, and we could just wait for the renewal of the Miami-Florida State rivalry in the ACC title game.
I suppose TheSportsNotebook should have known better than to think it would be this easy. All the way back in August, when previewing the ACC’s Coastal Division (the Miami–Virginia Tech side of the league), I wrote that while Miami was the best team and would play in the division’s biggest games, the Hurricanes could also be counted on to lose the game that mattered most. In the driving rain of South Beach that’s exactly what happened and the ACC Coastal Division race was thrown into glorious chaos.
Before looking at the big picture, let’s briefly emphasize just how poorly Miami played on Saturday night. They were hammered on the ground, giving up 183 yards rushing. They allowed Virginia Tech’s offense–previously one of the most inept in the country–to do a fair imitation of the 2007 New England Patriots, as quarterback Logan Thomas repeatedly marched the Hokies up and down the field.
Defensively, Miami looked completely unprepared. I would pan their open-field tackling, except they rarely had a defender close enough to even miss a tackle on a short crossing routes over the middle. I still think the ‘Canes are the division’s best, the only ones with even a chance at beating Florida State, but Miami richly deserved to lose this football game and as I wrote in August, that’s been a pattern with this program in recent years.
Another surprise outcome in this division was Pitt’s 28-21 win over Notre Dame, as the Panthers let Irish quarterback Tommy Rees beat himself and Notre Dame showed why some of us where highly skeptical of their claim to be fighting for a major bowl bid. Though not a conference game, it gave Pitt their fifth win. In last week’s ACC bowl projections, I had the Panthers missing out. The schedule is still tough (vs. North Carolina, at Syracuse, vs. Miami), but now Pitt just needs one win to get bowl eligible.
The big race though is for the ACC Coastal and four teams are tied with two conference losses. The drama is heightened by the fact that none of the teams control their own destiny. Here are the four, with their conference record and remaining ACC games…
Georgia Tech (5-2), at Clemson Virginia Tech (4-2), vs. Maryland, at Virginia Duke (3-2), vs. Maryland, at Wake Forest, at North Carolina Miami (3-2), at Duke, Virginia, at Pitt
Now here is what each team has done against their fellow contenders…
Georgia Tech: beat Duke, lost to Virginia Tech & Miami Virginia Tech: beat Georgia Tech & Miami, lost to Duke Duke: beat Virginia Tech, lost to Georgia Tech Miami: beat Georgia Tech, lost to Virginia Tech
If you really want to go crazy, you can also look at North Carolina and Pitt, who have three conference losses. It’s certainly not unthinkable that all four of the main contenders could lose and take chaos to another level. But before we go there and turn this article into a 10,000-word treatise on tiebreaker scenarios, let’s have the Tar Heels and Panthers play this coming Saturday in Pittsburgh and have one team get knocked out.
There are two games that loom above all others amongst the contenders. The first comes this Thursday night when Georgia Tech visits Clemson. The anticipated Yellow Jacket loss aids Virginia Tech in the short-term and aids the three-loss crackup scenario in the long-term. Since it’s Georgia Tech’s last league game, an upset win would eliminate both UNC and Pitt.
The other big one is Saturday in Durham, when Miami visits Duke. The Blue Devils are coming on strong since the return of quarterback Anthony Boone. If Georgia Tech loses on Thursday, Duke takes the field knowing they control their own destiny.
Here’s a basic outline of the most likely scenario that each of the four contenders needs, ranked in order of probability…
Duke: They need Georgia Tech to lose, and then to win out. This scenario puts the Blue Devils in a tie with Virginia Tech, whom Duke beat. The reason the Dookies need Georgia Tech lose is that a three-way tie of Duke, GT & VT would be settled by divisional record, which favors the Hokies.
Virginia Tech: Va Tech needs to win out, and hope either Georgia Tech beats Clemson, or that Duke loses one of its three remaining games. It need not be Miami–the Blue Devils still play Wake Forest and North Carolina and while Duke would be favored in those, especially coming off a presumed Miami win, I don’t know that we’re at the point we put the words “Duke” and “lock win” in the same sentence.
Georgia Tech: Their tiebreaker situation is tough. They need both Miami and Virginia Tech to lose, and the Hokie schedule is not imposing. The bigger problem though, is assuming a Yellow Jacket win in Clemson on Thursday.
Miami: The ‘Canes need to win out and hope Virginia Tech loses once. As just noted, it’s not likely, but the Hokies have hardly been a model consistency. Another option for Miami–admittedly a longshot–is that they go 10-2, finish second and end up under consideration for a BCS at-large spot. This option would have been more in play had they not been beaten so soundly on Saturday.
Miami is currently ranked 23rd and would have to have all of the following happen–both Northern Illinois and Fresno State lose, the Big 12 contenders completely beat each other up in November, and they’d probably need a Wisconsin loss.
Which of the four is most likely to go to Charlotte and get their crack at Florida State? Duke’s position is the strongest, but my preseason choice was the Hokies, and I still believe the landscape of the chaotic ACC Coastal Division is likely to fall in their favor.
The marquee games of the college football Week 5 cardare the quartet of LSU-Georgia, Oklahoma-Notre Dame, Ole Miss-Alabama and Wisconsin-Ohio State. But underneath the glitter are a lot of games worth at least checking out, especially with more conference games now on the docket.
TheSportsNotebook’s college football coverage will be back later this week with a look at the four marquee games. For now, let’s whet our appetites with a look at the most notable games on the undercard, going conference-by-conference. Here are focus will start with the ACC’s key Coastal Division game on Thursday, along with several matchups likely to be important as teams scramble for bowl eligibility.
The Virginia Tech-Georgia Tech game on Thursday night from Atlanta (7:30 PM ET, ESPN) is extremely big. Both are in the Coastal Division, the side of the league where Miami looks like the favorite based on the Hurricanes’ non-conference win over Florida. But Miami is hardly a prohibitive favorite, and the winner of this game sets themselves up as the challenger—especially if it’s Georgia Tech, since the Yellow Jackets are already 2-0 in ACC play with a win over fellow challenger North Carolina last week.
Pitt and Virginia are each 2-1 and meet up in Charlottesville. Both are teams that known the fight for six or seven wins and a bowl game won’t be easy, so both will want this game. Florida State and Clemson, the favorites on the Atlantic side of the conference are each on national TV in the 3:30 PM ET window.
The Seminoles go to Boston College (ABC/ESPN2) for what should be a cakewalk. Clemson hosts Wake Forest. The Deacons haven’t looked good in September, and Clemson has had extra prep time since its scare against N.C. State last Thursday.
On the non-conference docket, Duke’s bowl hopes have already started to take hits, with that ridiculous 58-55 loss they suffered to Pitt last week. Now quarterback Anthony Boone is out, and they host a pretty good Sun Belt team in Troy. The Blue Devils’ season might be over before it really gets started. And North Carolina takes on East Carolina. The Pirates, a favorite in Conference USA, have already given Virginia Tech a tough game.
TheSportsNotebook.com’s college football coverage has updated its BCS bowl projections following Week 4, with a special look at the chances of Fresno State rising out of the Mountain West. As part of a conference-by-conference wrap-up of the week, here’s a look at the ACC…
ACC: Clemson’s 26-14 win over N.C. State on the road Thursday night wasn’t anything that will win them plaudits from the media, nor is it one they will likely be pointing to at the end of the season if they’re pleading their case to play for a national title. But I was impressed, precisely because of those reasons.
This is the game we’ve been waiting on with the Tigers, where an opponent they should beat stepped up and gave them a tough game. The Wolfpack did that, keeping Tajh Boyd’s passing game mostly underneath and forcing Clemson to grind it out. There have been too many instances in the past where this team has folded in that spot. But Boyd played mistake-free football, the defense got the job done and Clemson gradually pulled away.
Another team to be impressed with was Georgia Tech, who took over the second half against North Carolina, turning a 20-14 halftime deficit into a 28-20 win. The normally productive Tar Heel passing game was disjointed, with Bryn Renner going 14/29 for 218 yards. If this game was going to be settled by a referendum on the running game, you knew it was going GT’s way.
This was a big divison win for Georgia Tech, who joins North Carolina and Virginia Tech in the role of challenger to Miami. And speaking of Virginia Tech, if a game could ever showcase their great defense/awful offense dichotomy, their triple-overtime win over Marshall was it.
The Hokie defense put the clamps on Marshall’s excellent quarterback, Rakeem Cato, who completed less than 50 percent of his throws and didn’t take off and make plays with his feet. But Logan Thomas could do nothing against a defense that’s notoriously bad in a conference that seems to have banned defense.
Then the teams went two overtimes with neither one scoring! How is that even possible? Virginia Tech escapes 29-21, its second straight win over a Conference USA contender.
Pitt and Duke are also in the ACC Coastal and they played a bizarre game, won by the Panthers 58-55. Tom Savage threw six touchdown passes, but the biggest difference in the game was that Duke counterpart Brandon Connette threw four interceptions to go with his four touchdowns. In either case, a disgraceful display of football from two schools who showed why their basketball teams have more renown.
Over on the Clemson-Florida State side of the conference, should we not sleep on Maryland? The Terps rolled to a 4-0 record by hammering woeful West Virginia 37-10, thanks to six turnovers from the Mountaineers.
Other post-Week 4 thoughts from the power conferences…
The ACC has more conference games going than any other league in Week 4 of the college football season. The conference has interesting matchups on both sides of the divisional split, and it starts with ESPN’s Thursday night showcase.
Clemson at N.C. State (Thur, 7:30, ESPN): A year ago it was Florida State who was upended by the Wolfpack. It’s a new era under a new coach now in Raleigh, with Dave Doeren at the helm and a lot of young players in the starting lineup. N.C. State got wins in its first two games over Louisiana Tech and Richmond and now takes aim at the Tigers.
The Pack have played well enough, and Clemson’s recent history in games they should win (a negative history) combine to give this game among Atlantic Division rivals at least a dash of interest. But the Tigers have had twenty days since their big win over Georgia to get ready (only a game against South Carolina State since then) and only Wake Forest is ahead of them next week. What possible reason would there be for Clemson to be unprepared.
Clemson is a 14 ½ point favorite, and even that number looks light, if Tajh Boyd can get the offense cranking and build his Heisman resume. I look for the Tigers to keep rolling.
North Carolina-Georgia Tech (Sat, Noon, ESPN):Miami is the favoriteon the Coastal Division side of the conference, but the Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets join Virginia Tech on the list of legitimate challengers. Georgia Tech has a league win under their belt, over Duke last week, and while UNC starts conference play on Saturday.
I’m surprised at how little respect the Tar Heels are getting, as a 6 ½ point underdog. The size of the number tells us this is more than simply homefield, which only accounts for half of that. North Carolina got good offensive production from Bryn Renner in the passing game, beating Middle Tennessee, and the Heels didn’t let South Carolina blow them out in a road opener.
The game will be a battle for tempo, with Georgia Tech looking to control things with the triple option and Renner hoping to create a downfield game that would favor the Heels.
I lean Georgia Tech’s way because they’re at home, but I’d gladly grab UNC and the points if I were in Las Vegas.
The Clemson-N.C. State and UNC-Georgia Tech games set the tone for both the conference, and the TV viewing agenda for the country, kicking off both Thursday and then the early time slot on Saturday as they do.
TWO MORE WORTH CHECKING
There a couple other noteworthy games. Pitt meets up with Duke, and with both teams likely to hover right on the bubble of bowl-eligible, this game could end up deciding a bid. The Panthers looked good in beating New Mexico, 49-27 last week.
Duke already lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Boone, with an injury, but it might work out for the best—Brandon Connette has played well since getting the chance. I was deeply disappointed in Pitt’s defense when they looked so bad against Florida State on Labor Day night, but was willing to make that game more about FSU and Jameis Winston. I won’t be so forgiving if the Panthers have problems with Connette, and if they do have problems they’ll lose the game because the Pitt offense can’t keep up with anyone. The Panthers are giving 4 ½ in spite of going on the road, which strikes me as a little excessive.
And even though West Virginia-Maryland isn’t a conference game, it feels like it should be, and more important, it is a test for Maryland. The Terps are a team looking better than advertised, at 3-0. The wins over Florida International, Old Dominion and UConn, are nothing special, but perhaps Randy Edsall has something going in College Park. They’re a five-point favorite and we’ll find out more on Saturday.
Week 2 marked the second straight week in college football that the ACC made a statement at the expense of the SEC. Last week it was Clemson beating Georgia. This time around it was Miami beating Florida, as the Hurricanes knocked off the Gators 21-16, and with the win Miami sent the message that they expect to be in the group with Clemson and Florida State vying for the ACC crown, Orange Bowl bid, and with a little luck, maybe more.
Miami’s defensive front seven is young, and the ACC isn’t exactly renowned for physical front walls in any case. With Florida showing a tough running game last year, and then again last week, there was little reason to expect the Hurricane rush defense to make its mark on Saturday. But that’s exactly what happened.
Florida ran it 44 times, but could muster only 122 yards. When they had to go to the air, disaster was the result. Jeff Driskell threw three interceptions, and the Gators as a team turned it over five times. It was reminiscent of 2012when Florida turned it over six times and lost to Georgia, costing the Gators the SEC East title, the chance to play Alabama, and a chance at the national championship.
Miami didn’t have to do much, but just left Florida self-destruct. Give the Hurricanes a lot of credit—it used to be that their quarterback, Stephen Morris, was the one who could be counted on to beat himself. He didn’t on Saturday and his team got a big win as a result.
SEC: I’m getting intrigued by LSU. No, I’m not overreacting to the fact that they blew out UAB. But I like how efficient Zach Mettenberg was in the passing game—16/19 for 282 yards and his obvious ability to hook up with receivers like Odell Beckham for big plays. I wasn’t high on the Tigers to start the year I’m still not sure what to make of the win over TCU—how good are the Horned Frogs?—but LSU is working its way back onto my radar.
Big 12: Baylor is in its second straight year of quarterback transition. Nick Florence was a credible replacement for the Heisman-winning RG3 a year ago, and now Bryce Petty has the job. Petty threw for 338 yards. Granted, it was only against Buffalo, but Big 12 defenses have become soft in recent years and if Petty can produce, Baylor is going to be a dark horse.
And can Oklahoma State run the ball? Not to pick nits in their 56-35 win over UT-San Antonio. UTSA isn’t a bad team and the score was 42-7 at one point. But the Cowboys ran for just 87 yards on 32 carries. This is an open conference race and one Okie State can certainly win, but this needs to improve.
Pac-12: It’s time to open the betting on when Lane Kiffin is going to get fired at USC. The Trojans lost 10-7 to Washington State at home, and as the score would indicate, the offense was terrible. USC’s two quarterbacks combined to throw for just 54 yards. While Washington State is well-coached under Mike Leach, the boss has never been noted for his defensive prowess. This is an appalling loss for Southern Cal.
Big Ten: Speaking of coaches in trouble, I’m not opening betting lines on Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz, but I’m worried about him. Iowa already lost at home to Northern Illinois last week. Now the Hawkeyes looked very mediocre in beating Texas State 28-14. This was a 21-14 game in the fourth quarter and while Iowa controlled the trenches, they committed 11 penalties. It’s been a long time since Iowa looked like a real threat in the Big Ten.
WRAPPING IT UP
Any thoughts that Louisville might get trouble in the American Athletic Conference took a further blow on Saturday. Cincinnati got waxed by previously y inept Illinois, and SMU had to struggle past Montana State, 31-30. The Bearcats got muscled on the ground. The Mustangs’ problems were self-inflicted, but the opposition also much weaker.
The MAC looks strong at the top. Toledo played competitively in a loss to Missouri, the second straight week they’ve competed respectably against a decent SEC team (Florida being the other). We mentioned Northern Illinois knocking off Iowa. And Bowling Green rolled to another win, looking good in dismantling Kent State in a conference game.
Even better for the MAC’s elite is that at the lower rungs, some disasters are shaping up—Eastern Michigan, UMass, Akron and Western Michigan have all looked really bad. All the better for a potential BCS-buster.
It was back in 2005 that ACC football split into divisions and created its championship game. Remember that when those divisional splits were created, the league did so with the express purpose of setting up Miami and Florida State to play in the title game. Hence, they split the two powers apart, even though it didn’t match up geographically. The history hasn’t played out quite like anyone expected.
Miami and Florida State has not been a regular matchup for the December title game. In fact, it’s never happened. Even more shocking is that Miami has never even made the title game. Florida State’s only gone three times, including last season’s run to the Orange Bowl.
Consequently, younger fans aren’t going to recall that there was day when ‘Canes-‘Noles was not only the biggest rivalry in college football, but the hottest rivalry in sports. The Miami-FSU games of the late 1980s/early 1990s had a hype that matched the famed Red Sox-Yankees battles of the early ‘00s or the Ravens-Steelers grudge matches in the NFL in recent seasons. They were ferocious locally and highly anticipated nationally.
It’s possible this could be the year that Miami and Florida State square off in Charlotte for the right to play in the Orange Bowl. The college football coverage at the links below outline each divisional race. Miami has the right to claim favorite’s status in a balanced Coastal Division. Florida State joins Clemson as the co-faves in a top-heavy Atlantic Division.
As for myself…I’m not picking either one. I’ll go with Clemson in the Atlantic, and while I’m a little leery of Virginia Tech’s offensive problems, I like everything else about the Hokies and will take them to win the Coastal, probably with a 6-2 league record. Clemson would be TheSportsNotebook’s choice to win the conference title game and a chance to claim its first major bowl win since 1981 when the program won the national championship.
The ACC’s Coastal Division was something of a circus in 2012. North Carolina had the division’s best team, but was on probation for the rules violations of the Butch Davis era. Miami stood poised to take the place of the Tar Heels, but decided to self-impose a bowl ban in November, a ban that extended to the ACC Championship Game. Georgia Tech, at 6-6, ended up playing for the conference title and thankfully losing to Florida State.
This doesn’t include bowl regular and perennial conference contender Virginia Tech falling to 4-6, before rallying to make a bowl game, nor Duke stepping up and making it into postseason play. It was an interesting year to say the least, and 2013 should be more of the same. At least with everyone eligible, the interest can be more about the quality of the race, than with it being a train wreck.
I’d break this seven-team entity into three groups of teams. The first tier belongs to Miami. It’s not that the Hurricanes are the overwhelming favorite, but as we’ll see they are the “on-paper” favorite, and it’s hard to argue any other way. It doesn’t mean you have to pick the ‘Canes, but they’re at least with their conversation must begin.
Then there’s three solid contenders in Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, any one of whom can make it to Charlotte for the championship game on December 7. After that we move to the bottom three of Pitt, Duke and Virginia. All of these teams can make a bowl game, and frankly could even make a run at the top, but they would be a significant dark horse shot to pull off the latter.
So on with our college football coverage of the ACC Coastal Division’s three tiers, followed by some predictions…
RAISING CANES
Senior quarterback Stephen Morris started showing some consistency last year for Miami, cutting back on his interceptions and throwing 21 touchdown passes. In his final campaign, he needs to up the 58% completion rate, which in this day and age of high-percentage throws, is a little low. Morris has an experienced group of receivers and a veteran offensive line, so this offense should be able to move the ball.
The opposite side of the ball sees Miami strong in the trenches, with three defensive lineman back, and they’ve got a nice group of linebackers. The only area of this team that needs work is the secondary, along with the fact that the defense was not very good a year ago, so obviously the returning starters need to make big strides.
A lot of ACC defenses struggled last year, so relative to the conference, I don’t think Miami has a lot to worry about here. My concern is that in recent years this program has not been effective at closing out big games, as evidenced by the fact that they’ve never played in the ACC Championship Game. Who would have ever thought that would happen when the ‘Canes arrived in the ACC for the 2004 season?
As you might gather then, I am not ready to anoint Miami as the Coastal Division champs. If you ask me which of the division’s team is most likely to win eight games, I’d pick the ‘Canes, but on an up-or-down proposition to win the Coastal, I’d go with the negative.
A TRIO OF CHALLENGERS
Georgia Tech: Paul Johnson’s triple-option offense will need new leadership, as the Yellow Jackets have to replace the quarterback and the entire backfield. The good news is that a good offensive line is ready to pave the way. The bad news is that the triple option requires a high degree of precision from all the skill players involved, so there is still going to be a learning curve, and Johnson has never had a good passing game to help offset that.
What Georgia Tech can hope for is that the defense is significantly better. The Yellow Jackets played well defensively against Florida State in last year’s championship game and against USC in a bowl game, so perhaps the eight returning starters built up some good momentum for this year. Georgia Tech is also shifting to a 4-3, to try and toughen up on the trenches. Jeremiah Attaochu had ten sacks last year and is the kind of defensive end a 4-3 needs, but now he has to prove he can rush from a down position, rather than the stand-up outside linebacker he was in the 3-4.
Virginia Tech: Logan Thomas is in his third year as the starting quarterback, but there is absolutely nothing around him. The Hokies are a contender because of what should be an excellent defense. They’re physical up front, led by end James Gayle, and experienced in the secondary, with tough corners in Kyle Fuller and Antone Exum.
We’ve also learned to count on head coach Frank Beamer pulling a few rabbits out of his hat on special teams, and while the Hokies are going to be overmatched against Alabama on August 31, that game will be also be a great learning situation. A solid head coach, veteran quarterback and rugged defense isn’t a bad place to start the season.
North Carolina: Larry Fedora in his second year as head coach, having first won at Southern Miss, and then making the Tar Heels the best team in the division a year ago. The running game will be in transition, with new starters on the offensive front and the departure of running back Giovanni Bernard. But the passing game will be explosive, with senior quarterback Bryn Renner having all his favorite targets back in the fold.
Defensively is where Fedora has to get this team up to speed quickly. They play a 4-2-5 set, and while the secondary should be okay, this has the look of a team that can be pushed around at front. They gave up 68 points last year to Georgia Tech, the conference team most likely to do such shoving.
THE LONGSHOTS
Pitt: I lived in the Steel City for nine years and I can always be talked into taking a flyer on the Panthers for a longshot, even while knowing that they always find a way to mess things up. I really like this team’s defense. They have experience throughout the lineup, a great defensive tackle in Aaron Donald and a couple tough corners in K’Waun Williams and LaFayette Pitts. The problem is the offense has nothing, and it will take all of head coach Paul Chryst’s offensive wizardry to put points on the board.
Virginia: Mike London’s program fell hard last year after what seemed to be a breakout year in 2011. When looking at UVA, I’m reminded of a book by former Oakland Raider coach John Madden, who achieved even greater fame as an NFL analyst. Madden said that he and his old boss Al Davis were in agreement that the offensive line and the secondary were the places to begin building a team. If that’s true, then London has something to work with, because those are the two positive areas of his squad.
Duke: The Dookies did last year what Virginia had done in ’11 and that’s make a nice splash. Duke won six games, beat North Carolina and made it to a bowl. Head coach David Cutliffe has to find a new quarterback, but the signal-caller will be well-protected and able to target wide receiver Jamison Crowder. The Blue Devils also have three defensive lineman back and an all-conference corner in Ross Cockrell.
CONCLUSION
I like the depth in this division, and expect six of its teams to qualify for a bowl bid. I’d lean Virginia as the odd team out. At the top, I’m going to take a flyer on Virginia Tech. We summarized their strengths further up, and I’d also add that this is a proud program that’s going to feel like it has something to prove to their conference brethren.
Miami would come in a close second, North Carolina in third and Georgia Tech is the one contender that I just don’t see making it to Charlotte. Of the three longshots, I like Pitt as the one with the best chance of breaking into a higher tier and challenging for the division crown.
The ACC Atlantic Division is divided into two very distinct tiers of teams. Clemson and Florida State are the heavyweights, and it would be a shock if the division winner were anyone else. The Tigers and Seminoles are also good enough to be the co-favorites for the conference overall, and to be the conversation as a possible national title contender.
After the Big Two, you have five teams that can all make credible arguments—based on either returning personnel or recent history—to be the third-best team in the division. Therefore, our college football coverage of the Atlantic Division will divide into two distinct parts that represent the division as a whole.
THE HEAVYWEIGHTS
Florida State: The Seminoles won the ACC crown a year ago and then manhandled Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl. Quarterback E.J. Manuel has moved on to the NFL and the Buffalo Bills, but if Jimbo Fischer is a good offensive mind—and that’s how the FSU head coach built his reputation coming up through the ranks—then the pieces are there for the ‘Noles to produce points.
Fischer can fall back on a veteran offensive lineman, with four returning starters and mostly upperclassmen in starting roles. The 1-2 punch of Devonta Freeman and James Wilder Jr. in the backfield ensures that the new quarterback—probably freshman Jameis Winston—can grow into the job with a lot of ground support, along with a good target in receiver Rashad Greene.
The quarterback transition is still enough of a concern to keep Florida State out of the ranks of national championship contenders, but the ACC hopes are more likely to swing on how quickly the defensive front seven can be rebuilt. There’s a good secondary here, led by corner Lamarcus Joyner, but the line and linebackers need to get up to speed.
Clemson: Tajh Boyd has a great run as the Clemson quarterback, leading his team to a conference championship in 2011, and a bowl victory over LSU in 2012. There’s one more step to take—win not just the ACC, but win the Orange Bowl on top of it.
Boyd’s best playmates—receiver DeAndre Hopkins and running back Andre Ellington—have moved on but the quarterback can still target explosive wideout Sammy Watkins. And Boyd will be protected by an offensive front as experienced as the one in Tallahassee.
Clemson improved defensively a year ago, the humiliation of giving up 70 points to West Virginia in the ’11 Orange Bowl undoubtedly being a motivator. Their challenge this year is the opposite of FSU’s—the Tigers have their key people back up front, but need to get new players up to speed in the secondary.
THE FIVE CHALLENGERS
This group is an eclectic mix of new arrivals from the Big East, coaching newcomers and sideline veterans, all with their own unique case for why they can move up the ranks and make a decent bowl game.
N.C. State: The Wolfpack said goodbye to Tom O’Brien after a tenure that saw N.C. State consistently make bowl games, but never make a serious run at the conference title. Dave Doeren, who guided Northern Illinois to their great year (and did not coach in the Orange Bowl), is the new man in town.
Doeren’s advantages are a program that at least had the track record of being a consistent, winning bowl team. His problem is that virtually the entire squad, save the defensive line, needs to be rebuilt. The D-Line can be the core of a success over a two-year run, as three kids who started as sophomores, return this season.
Boston College: BC let go of Frank Spaziani after starting to fall on hard times and hired Steve Addazio away from Temple. I absolutely love this hire and think Addazio will fit in well at Chestnut Hill. He’s got a an experienced team in both trenches, a tough running quarterback in Chase Rettig and an emerging wideout in Alex Amidon.
What’s going to hinder the Eagles is a youthful secondary, and the new coaching staff likes to be aggressive, meaning its trial by fire for the developing defensive backs.
Syracuse: Head coach Doug Marrone took the Orange to a couple bowl games and turned that into the Buffalo Bills job. Nothing against Marrone, but how did that make him more qualified than Lovie Smith to get the Bills’ gig? Sorry, I digress. Marrone left behind an offense that can build around the running game, with three returning lineman and an 1100-yard rusher in Jerome Smith, plus a veteran defense.
The only weakness in Syracuse is the passing game, where a new quarterback and new receivers must be found.
Maryland: Randy Edsall hasn’t worked the magic in College Park the way I thought he would after enjoying such success in UConn, but it is still just the third year of Edsall’s tenure here in Maryland. After running through multiple quarterbacks last year, he’s got C.J. Brown back healthy and ready for a sixth year of eligibility. The offensive line should be okay, albeit not great, but the defense looks young everywhere.
I might be too generous in including Maryland in the group of teams who could finish third, rather than just confining them to a tier all their own, but Edsall’s track record of taking UConn to a BCS game in 2010 deserves respect and if Brown stays healthy, there’s no reason Maryland couldn’t go 3-1 against the other four teams at this level.
Wake Forest: Jim Grobe enters his 13th year in Winston-Salem and it seems like quarterback Tanner Price is doing the same. The senior signal-caller has been a starter his entire college career, and it’s been a mix of ups and downs, usually tied to the quality of the personnel around him. Last year, it wasn’t very good and Wake went 5-7. This year, things look a little better.
Price has senior receiver Michael Campano back in the fold, a decent offensive front to protect him, and a defense that looks like it will be significantly better. Nose tackle Nikita Whitlock holds down the middle of the 3-4 scheme, and there’s a lot of experience in the back seven.
CONCLUSION
I’ll take Clemson over Florida State for the division crown. The Tigers have the more experienced quarterback and the head-to-head game on October 19 in Death Valley. At the next level, I think Wake Forest is going to emerge as the best of that group and the Deacons will win at least eight games. I’d see Maryland and Syracuse as the teams that fall apart, N.C. State being mediocre and Boston College at least making a bowl game.
The ACC football race is one of the most intriguing in the major conferences—perhaps no other league has as many varied outcomes that can realistically happen in November. This conference still has a longshot chance at getting a team in a national title game and earning an at-large spot in one of the BCS bowls. That’s one extreme. The other is that probation and a weak division could give them an incredibly weak champion to send to the Orange Bowl, where the league goes if its champ isn’t in the top two nationally. There are five teams with a realistic chance at the conference championship. Let’s break them down….
Florida State (8-1, 5-1): The Seminoles are the chalk pick to win the league and who I’ve got penciled in for the Orange Bowl in the BCS bowl projections we did here earlier this week. Florida State has overcome a lot to reach this point. They lost All-American defensive back Greg Reid in the preseason. They lost All-American defensive end Brandon Jenkins in early September. Now they’ve lost leading rusher Chris Thompson to a season-ending knee injury.
But the defense has continued to play at an extremely high level and E.J. Manuel has made the leap to being a conference championship-quality quarterback—the once-erratic passer has completed 70 percent of his throws, is averaging over 14 yards per pass and has a 16-4 TD/INT ratio. His team won its signature game over Clemson and has also beaten Coastal Division contenders Miami and Duke.
Florida State did get a break in that they did not draw North Carolina, the probation team who looks like the best in the Coastal and they lost a one-point game at N.C. State. But if November chaos happens in the BCS—and with five weeks of football to go, every college football fan that’s paid attention for at least the last ten years should know how possible that is—the ‘Noles could have a shot to move up.
They’ve got chances to impress with a Thursday night game at Virginia Tech next week, the regular season finale against Florida and presumably the ACC Championship Game. They just need Notre Dame and Oregon to lose games to USC and Kansas State to trip up somewhere, and then all bets are off when it comes to the one-loss teams.
Clemson (7-1, 4-1): The Tigers are hoping for some November chaos of their own, but because of their head-to-head loss at Florida State in September, it needs to start with hoping FSU gets upset by Virginia Tech or Maryland, and paves Clemson’s way to the Atlantic Division title. But even if the Tigers can’t win the ACC, they can still win out and be a prime choice for an at-large bid to the BCS.
Clemson’s offense has been as explosive as advertised. While Tajh Boyd has likely been outmaneuvered by Manuel for conference MVP that’s more about the excellence of the latter than any flaw on the part of the Clemson quarterback. Boyd is completing 68 percent of his passes at better than 13 yards per attempt and has a 20-6 TD/INT ratio.
The early season suspension of receiver Sammy Watkins set him back personally, but not the team, as DeAndre Hopkins simply stepped up and is one of the nation’s most productive wideouts. Andre Ellington is a talented and explosive running back, also capable of catching passes out of the backfield if need be, though the team has not used him in that role as often as I thought they might.
The schedule won’t be easy. Clemson goes to improved Duke on Saturday, then comes home for Maryland, followed a tough home date with N.C. State. If they win those they give themselves a chance if Florida State stumbles in ACC play. And if nothing else, it sets up a Clemson-South Carolina battle in Death Valley with a possible at-large spot in the BCS (either Fiesta or Sugar) at stake.
N.C. State is also in the Atlantic Division, but because the scope of this post is focused strictly on teams with a title shot, we need to exclude them for the time being, as they’d need to beat Clemson and have Virginia Tech beat Florida State, in which case N.C. State takes the tiebreaker. It’s a longshot. But the Wolfpack are just in the wrong division and if they have a realistic shot at the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, this conference’s first post-BCS bowl prize if they beat Clemson.
Miami (4-4, 3-2): Now we move to the Atlantic Division side and things start to get ugly. Miami has been embarrassed in non-conference forays against Kansas State and Notre Dame, losing by a combined 98-20 and demonstrating what a huge gap there is in this division and the national elite. The Hurricanes have also lost more competitive games to North Carolina and Florida State, and do have a nice win over N.C. State, the one instance where a Coastal team won a significant game over an Atlantic foe.
Stephen Morris, the junior quarterback, has made nice progress this season, but he hasn’t gotten a ton of help from the running game and the rush defense has been absolutely porous. The good news for the ‘Canes? Virginia Tech isn’t running the ball well and Miami gets the Hokies at home on Thursday. If they win this game and Clemson takes care of Duke, Miami breaks out of a three-way tie in the loss column and into first place. Miami-Duke is the season finale in Durham and the Blue Devils don’t run the ball well either.
Duke (6-3, 3-2): The Blue Devils are the one Coastal contender to beat fellow division traveler North Carolina, the team that can’t win it. Duke also led Virginia Tech 20-0 early in their game a couple weeks ago. That’s the good news. The bad news? When it gets ugly, it spirals out of control. Losses to Stanford and Florida State were by a combined 98-20. And that Tech game? The Hokies dropped the last 41 points on the Blue Devils to win going away.
Duke can still throw the ball very well, with senior quarterback Sean Renfree at the helm and his three-receiver set as good as any in the conference. It feels like Connor Vernon’s been putting up big numbers at Duke longer than Mason Plumlee on the basketball team. Jamison Crowder and Desmond Scott keep secondaries honest and could be #1 targets at a lot of schools.
The question is going to be whether the Blue Devils can force every opponents like Georgia Tech and Miami into their style of play, or if they’ll be capable of winning a game where they have to run. In the upset of North Carolina, Josh Snead had a surprisingly good day running the ball. The Dookies need to see more of that if they’re going to be competitive against Clemson and then in the final two games. Please note that so long as they just beat Georgia Tech and Miami, they would only need one Virginia Tech defeat to win the division.
Virginia Tech (4-4, 2-2): Frank Beamer’s team hasn’t been able to run the ball consistently this year. Given they replaced nine defensive starters that can’t be a huge surprise. But they haven’t been able to stop anyone. With a renowned coordinator in Bud Foster and a veteran group back, this was supposed to be the unit that carried the team. Instead it’s let them down in non-conference losses to Pitt and Cincinnati, and then ACC defeats against Clemson and North Carolina where they gave up 86 points.
Logan Thomas is a good sophomore quarterback, but too much pressure has been placed on him. Nonetheless, the Hokies control their destiny. The problem is that destiny requires them to beat Miami on the road, Florida State at home, then take care of business on the road against Boston College and at home against Virginia. When you’re playing as inconsistently as Beamer’s team is, even “take care of business” games are anything but casual.
As mentioned a few times in this article, North Carolina is on probation and ineligible, which is unfortunate, because they are probably the best team in the Coastal. They’ve won two of three against the main division rivals, losing only to Duke. They’ve beaten N.C. State on the other side of the division.
The Tar Heels at 6-3 close with games against Georgia Tech, Maryland and Virginia and sweeping those games would have clinched a division crown. They’d have been a credible 9-3 team to play for the league title on December 1. As it is, we’ll have to see if they can call up Penn State or Ohio State and schedule a Probation Bowl.
November promises to be an exciting time in the ACC. We could have Florida State playing for the national title and Clemson in a major bowl. Or we could just have one team in a big bowl and that be Duke in the Orange. Or it could settle somewhere in between. Whichever way it falls, this conference is worth paying attention to down the stretch.
*North Carolina was the nominal preseason favorite in the Coastal Division, where VT resides, the side of the league that’s opposite Florida State and Clemson. The Tar Heels haven’t had a statement moment—in fact, they had to rally to beat San Diego State at home after trailing 31-27. But UNC is getting solid play from sophomore quarterback Marquise Williams, a candidate for league MVP and have no reason to back down from their own expectations.
