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ACC bowl projections

ACC Bowl Projections: A Glut Of Riches

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The ACC not only stands poised to put its champion into the BCS National Championship Game–presuming Florida State takes care of business against Duke on Saturday, a task that should be much easier now that it’s been decided Seminole quarterback Jameis Winston won’t be charged with sexual assault–but the conference stands apart from the rest of the country in filling bowl slots. The ACC has a higher percentage of its teams bowl-eligible than any BCS conference.

Eleven of the fourteen ACC schools won at least six games and made themselves eligible for a bowl invitation. That’s 78.5 percent, which stands narrowly ahead of the Pac-12 (9/12, for 75 percent) and SEC (10/14, for 71 percent).


There are no shortage of flaws in this stat for measuring conference strength–teams can pad their win total outside of the conference and when you have two absolutely awful teams (N.C. State and Virginia each lost all eight ACC games) it stands to reason a couple more will pick up bowl eligiblity rather than narrowly miss at 5-7.

Nonetheless, it’s not like the Big Ten and Big 12 don’t have bad teams in them and neither one could fill its bowl slots. Pending whether either conference gets a BCS at-large spot, they could end up failing to fill two spots. Meanwhile, the ACC will likely have a BCS at-large team (Clemson) and will not only fill all of its spots, but grab up bids in the places where either conferences failed.

That makes the business of ACC bowl projections very interesting this week. Here’s TheSportsNotebook’s take on how it will shake out…


ACC BOWL PROJECTIONS
BCS Automatic: Florida State (BCS National Championship Game, vs. Ohio State or Auburn)
BCS At-Large: Clemson (Orange, vs. Baylor or Alabama)
Chick-Fil-A: Miami (Georgia)
Russell Athletic: Duke (Louisville)
Sun: Virginia Tech (UCLA)
Belk: North Carolina (Houston)
Music City: Maryland (Vanderbilt)
AdvocareV100: Boston College (TBA, SEC failed to fill)
Military: Georgia Tech (UT-San Antonio)

That leaves Syracuse and Pitt shopping for a bowl. Both teams have a strong interest in rooting for Clemson to be chosen by one of the major bowls, since it opens up one extra spot for everyone else down the line on this conference’s chain of command. Also note, the ACC has an agreement with the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, but that is conditional on BYU not being eligible, a circumstance which does not apply.

The Sun Bowl is the conference’s “firewall” bowl, so to speak. The bowl has a committment to select the loser of the championship game (Duke, under this scenario) in the event that the runner-up hasn’t been taken. This prevents the free-fall effect that often forces a team’s fans to chose between taking a longshot chance at a conference title or killing their bowl hopes with a bad loss, as most of us expect Duke is going to take Saturday night in Charlotte.

In any event, Virginia Tech played in the Russell Athletic Bowl a year ago, and their 13-10 win over Rutgers was arguably the ugliest game of the bowl season. I doubt Hokie Nation will be anxious to go back to the same venue, and I doubt the Orlando-based game will be anxious to invite them. Duke will still be a nice story, and I think they get the nod.

It’s after Virginia Tech, who is 8-4, that things get really interesting. The other six teams are either 7-5 (Maryland, Georgia Tech, Boston College) or 6-6 (North Carolina, Syracuse, Pitt). The rule the NCAA used to have requiring 6-6 teams to be chosen last has been abolished, and there’s really nothing separating these times in terms of generic attractiveness.

The Belk Bowl is based on Charlotte, which elevates North Carolina out of the generic brand and makes them a bit more marquee to this particular bowl game. The travel for Maryland fans to get to Nashville for the Music City Bowl is pretty reasonable.

Travel for any ACC school to Shreveport for the Advocare V100 will be tough, so dropping Boston College’s marquee running Andre Williams–who might be fresh off an appearance in New York City–makes sense. The Military Bowl is based in Washington D.C., and Georgia Tech coach Paul Johnson has Navy ties.

ACC Bowl Projections: Here Come The Dookies!

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The ACC football race always had a contrasting quality to it. There was the nice, stable Atlantic Division where Florida State would play Clemson and the winner would dutifully move on to the December 7 conference championship game in Charlotte. Then there was the chaotic Coastal Division where it seemed anything was possible. That’s exactly how it’s played out this season, and now, improbably, it’s the Duke Blue Devils who are on track to earn the berth opposite Florida State in the ACC Championship Game.

Duke spotted Miami an early 17-7 lead on Saturday in Durham, came back to lead a close game by one point after three quarters and then blasted the ‘Canes in the fourth quarter, en route to a 48-30 win. It wasn’t the passing game that did it either. Even though throwing the football effectively has become the program’s staple under David Cutliffe, on Saturday, Duke just ran it down Miami’s throat. The Blue Devils amassed 358 yards on the ground, with big games from both Josh Snead and Jela Duncan.


The week couldn’t have gone any better for the Dookies. As expected, on Thursday night Clemson hammered Georgia Tech 55-31. The loss by the Yellow Jackets, one of the two conference teams to beat Duke this season (Pitt being the other) gave Cutliffe’s team a stronger position in the tiebreakers.

Then the unexpected happened. Virginia Tech lost at home to Maryland, 27-24 in overtime. The Hokies just could not get a ground game going, nor sustain the offensive consistency they’d shown the prior week in Miami. The loss meant that Duke is now in sole possession of first place in the Coastal, with tiebreaker edges on the likeliest teams to catch them, Virginia Tech and Miami.

Before we book Duke into the ACC title game, the Blue Devils will need to win at least one more game. Two road trips are ahead, one to Wake Forest and the other to North Carolina. Both teams are fighting to get bowl-eligible.

As good a job as Duke has done this season, I’m not ready to believe they’re going to win two straight must-win road games against desperate teams, all the while maintaining their focus coming off the big Miami win. Two straight Duke wins means they close the year on a 8-0 run, with a victory over Virginia Tech also mixed in. Do you really think they’re that good?


I do think they’re good enough to get one more win though, and that in all likelihood means a division title. The tiebreaker possibilities remain complex–Georgia Tech and Pitt are also a game back, along with Virginia Tech and Miami, and figuring out every possible scenario would make a book-length discussion. But it’s fair to say that Duke’s position is going to be very strong, and I think it highly probable that with one more victory, it’s the Blue Devils moving on to Charlotte.

Dick Vitale has become famous (or infamous) for his frantic cry of “Here come the Dookies!” in basketball. Now the ACC has to be on the alert for the football team, who might stand as the last hurdle in front of Florida State on the way to a spot in the BCS National Championship Game.

The ACC has eight bowl tie-ins, and the good news for Duke (or whomever wins the Coastal) is that the conference championship game loser can slip no lower than the Sun Bowl, the #5 choice, against what will be a credible Pac-12 opponent. Too often, in a league like this, a loss in the title game leaves you free-falling through the bowl selection process. The ACC is farsighted enough to at least provide some minimal protection to its conference champions.

Here’s TheSportsNotebook’s current ACC bowl projections…


BCS Automatic: Florida State (BCS National Championship Game, vs. Alabama)
BCS At-Large: Clemson (Orange, vs. Oklahoma State)
Chick-Fil-A: Miami (vs. Georgia)
Russell Athletic: Duke (vs. Louisville)…yes, a football rematch of last spring’s NCAA regional final.
Sun: Virginia Tech (vs. Washington)
Belk: Maryland (vs. Houston)
Music City: Syracuse (vs. Ole Miss)
Advocare V100: Boston College (vs. undecided)
Military: Pitt (vs. Tulane)

The opponent in the Advocare V100 Bowl is the last spot on the SEC bowl ladder, and as of this week’s SEC bowl projections, I don’t have enough teams qualifying. If Florida doesn’t beat Florida State or Mississippi State beat Ole Miss, this spot becomes available to a league with more eligible teams than bids.

Please note also that if Clemson does not make it as a BCS at-large, they’ll drop into the Chick-Fil-A spot, everyone moves down a rung, and Pitt would be left shopping for an open spot somewhere.

ACC Bowl Projections

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Florida State’s 41-14 thrashing of Miami last week kept the Seminoles push for the national championship on track, and kept them established as head-and-shoulders above the rest of the ACC. The conference still has a good race going on for the various bowl games they’re tied to, so with four weeks to go in the regular season, let’s take a look at some ACC bowl projections.

The league has nine bids to fill, including the automatic spot in the BCS, which is the Orange Bowl, unless the champion (presumably Florida State) ends up in the national title game. If the ACC should get an at-large selection to the BCS, everyone moves up one rung on the bowl ladder and that means the conference needs ten teams to fill out its commitments.


Getting to ten isn’t a lock yet, but the ACC looks in pretty good shape to wrap that up. Six teams are already eligible (Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Duke), and Maryland only needs one more win. The Terps have home games with Syracuse and Boston College and a road trip to N.C. State. None will be easy, but you have to think Maryland at least sneaks out with one win.

That leaves three more spots to fill, and three teams are sitting on 4-4 with big games ahead of them. Boston College is one of them and plays New Mexico State this week, a game the Eagles should certainly win and they also have a home date with N.C. State.

Syracuse needs two wins themselves and while they have to deal with Florida State, the Orange’s games against BC and Pitt are in the Carrier Dome and the road trip to Maryland is at least doable. It’s not a sure thing, but I’d cautiously lean toward Syracuse making it in.

Pitt is the team that’s going to have to fight. They have home games with Notre Dame and Miami, and another with improving North Carolina. The Panthers have the aforementioned road game at Syracuse. It hurts me to say, because I like Pittsburgh and their coach Paul Chryst, but the odds are against them winning two of these games.

Wake Forest, N.C. State and North Carolina have lost five games and have only one more loss to give. The deck is stacked against the Wolfpack, and the Demon Deacons don’t have an easy road–a game with Florida State on Saturday will wipe out their cushion.


North Carolina, at 3-5, is the team that can make a late run to bowl eligibility. The Tar Heels have home games with Virginia and Old Dominion. If UNC sweeps those games, then they just need to split a home game with Duke and a road trip to Pittsburgh. Carolina has been playing good football of late, but they also lost quarterback Bryn Renner to a shoulder injury for the rest of the year. Larry Fedora is an excellent head coach and we’ll see if his system can keep churning without Renner.

THE BCS LANDSCAPE

If the ACC is going to get two teams into the BCS, there are three scenarios.

*The most basic is that Florida State rolls on through to the conference title, while Clemson–currently ranked #7 in the BCS standings also wins out, and takes the at-large bid.

*The second is that the winner of Saturday’s Miami/Virginia Tech game that will likely determine the Coastal Division champ, goes up to Charlotte on December 7 and upsets Florida State. The Seminoles will be in strong enough position to still get an at-large spot, while the conference champ will go automatically.


*The more convoluted scenario–and as anyone who’s ever watched college football in November knows, we have to take this seriously–is that Virginia Tech upsets Miami, wins the division, but is rolled by Florida State. In the meantime, Clemson loses its regular season finale to South Carolina. Meanwhile, Miami quietly wins the rest of its games, ends up 10-2, and isn’t encumbered by the poll drop that comes with losing your last game.

Under that scenario, the ‘Canes might take an at-large spot. That’s especially true if Florida State plays for the national title and the Orange Bowl has to pick a replacement team. The hometown Hurricanes would be an attractive choice.

Whatever the scenario, I think the safest bet is that the ACC will produce two teams for the BCS, and that means ten teams are necessary to fill up their commitments.

ACC BOWL PROJECTIONS

The first three bids after the BCS is done picking are the marquee spots. The teams chosen get the chance to play pretty good teams from the SEC and Pac-12, along with the runner-up in the American Athletic  Conference race, which right now stands to be Louisville. After that, the quality of the opponents drops off to either midmajor teams or the low-ranking teams from the SEC.

Here’s how TheSportsNotebook projects the ACC, as we get set to begin Week 11.

BCS Automatic: Florida State (BCS National Championship)
BCS At-Large: Clemson (Orange)

Chick-Fil-A: Miami (vs. Georgia)
Russell Athletic: Georgia Tech (vs. Louisville)
Sun: Duke (vs. Arizona)
Belk: Virginia Tech (vs. Houston)
Music City: Maryland (vs. Ole Miss)
Advocare V100: Boston College (vs. Mississippi State)
Military: Syracuse (vs. Middle Tennessee)
New Orleans: North Carolina (vs. UL-Lafayette)