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2012 NBA playoffs

NBA Playoffs: LeBron Carries Miami

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You can’t say LeBron James answered his critics on Sunday—that will take at least one championship, probably more, all with him winning Finals MVP honors, before that happens. But LeBron delivered the kind of game everyone’s been waiting to see—a completely dominating performance with all the money on the table—as Miami beat Indiana 101-93 to even their NBA Eastern Conference semi-final series up at two games apiece. TheSportsNotebook recaps this game, along with San Antonio’s closeout against the Los Angeles Clippers, and we look ahead to tonight’s doubleheader…

Miami 101 Indiana 93: The final numbers are staggering—40 points, 18 rebounds and 12 assists. That’s what King James put on the board as the Heat reversed a halftime deficit and took the game over in the third quarter. And they overshadow a big-time performance from Dwayne Wade, who dropped 30 and got nine rebounds of his own. LeBron and Wade not only carried the scoring load, they did it efficiently—getting almost 70 percent of the team’s points, while taking a less than two-thirds of their shots. And the two stars were the reason the Heat won the rebounding battle 47-38. And they got their teammates involved with good assist numbers. Udonis Haslem was the biggest beneficiary of the latter, scoring 14 points, most in the fourth quarter.

Indiana suffered because it’s frontline couldn’t get into the game offensively. Roy Hibbert was a non-factor on Sunday, as was David West. If you’re an Indiana fan you can take heart in this—two of the three players who have to play well for you (the other is Danny Granger, who had 20 points) were missing in action, LeBron and Wade had a dominating game and you still had a chance to win in the end. And while Miami has to feel good about reclaiming homecourt advantage, I don’t know realistic it was to think Indiana would win all three home games to begin with. I think at this level of the postseason, an underdog has to think of terms of getting a 2-2 split on the road and the Pacers will have the chance to do that in Game 5. But that’s to talk about tomorrow. The aftermath of Game 4 is about LeBron, and if this is the year for him to get the monkey off his back, Sunday’s is the game that will live on for the ages.

San Antonio 102 LA Clippers 99: The balance of the Spurs stood out again, as did their ability to get the free throw line. San Antonio got eight more free throw attempts than the Clippers and scored seven more points at the stripe, thus creating the difference in a closely contested game at the Staples Center and closing out the Spurs’ second consecutive four-game sweep of the postseason. Tony Parker once again got the line consistently, hitting  7-of-9 and while Tim Duncan stepped up with a 21 points/9 rebounds night, consider the play of the role players—Daniel Green knocks down 14, Tiago Splitter has 11/7 in Duncan’s backup role, Parker backup Gary Neal hit 5-of-7 from the floor and scored 14 and Manu Ginobli, coming off the bench at this stage in his career, scored 11 and shot 44 percent from the floor.

The only nitpick to have is that it took 53 percent shooting for the Spurs to win this game. When the conference finals start, presumably against Oklahoma City, San Antonio will have to tighten up the defensive reins. As for the Clippers, Chris Paul was ready to go, with 23 points and 11 assists, but Blake Griffin again disappeared on the boards with only five. If Los Angeles was going to have a chance, Griffin needed to be attacking the glass each night and Game 3 was the only time he did. Perhaps it’s the knee strain he suffered in the Memphis series. Perhaps it’s the growing pains of a kid in the playoffs for the first time. Whatever the reason, it has to be something that doesn’t happen next year, because for the time being Los Angeles can feel good about making the playoffs and winning a series as they go into the offseason.

The Clippers may be followed into the offseason by their crosstown brethren tonight, when the Lakers visit Oklahoma City for Game 5. The Lakers were already dealing with a tough loss in Game 4 and now are dealing with some fallout from Kobe Bryant’s decision to throw Pau Gasol under the bus in the postgame interview. If this means that Kobe’s frustrated and is going to try and singlehandedly win this game, we may as well start the OkC-San Antonio conference finals series right now. If this means that Kobe is trying to motivate Gasol to be in position to get the ball and to hit the glass with more frequency, then we’ll have a ballgame on our hands. I think the Thunder are going to come out roaring and clinch this series tonight, but if they don’t, I consider it a virtual certainty that it ends up going seven.

Boston hosts Philadelphia in the pivotal fifth game of a series knotted at two. Three of these four games have been nail-biters and it’s been the young Sixers, not the veteran Celtics, who’ve made the key plays down the stretch, winning 2 of these 3. A combination of law of averages and homecourt makes it likely that the tide turns the other way if Game 5 comes down to the wire, and I really see no reason to think it won’t.

NBA Playoffs: Black Saturday At Staples

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Yesterday at the Staples Center will undeniably go down as Black Saturday in the developing history of the 13-year-old Los Angeles arena. The Clippers and Lakers each hosted must-win playoff games, each had them seemingly in control and both let them slip away. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games and looks ahead to Sunday’s twinbill in the NBA playoffs…

San Antonio 96 LA Clippers 86: I was in a car driving back from Baltimore listening on XM Radio and when the Clips were ahead by 24 early in the game, I audibled down to baseball and general talk shows. I missed a devastating San Antonio turnaround highlighted by a 24-zip run in the third quarter. Beyond the obvious—and accurate—talk about how this shows the Clippers are still learning, while the Spurs are championship tough, the thing that stands out most in the big picture is free throw shooting. San Antonio got the line more frequently and did it via the backcourt. Tony Park and Manu Ginobli were 10-of-14 from the foul line, while Chris Paul was only 2-for-2 and Randy Foye never got a charity stripe attempt. Furthermore, the Clippers bricked the free throws they did get, with Reggie Evans 3-of-10 being the biggest culprit. Overall, the Spurs 17-9 scoring advantage in this area accounts for most of the margin of victory in a game evenly contested elsewhere. Los Angeles got positives—Blake Griffin finally played like a stud, with a 28 points/16 rebounds showing and Paul dished 11 assists. But whether the season ends in Game 4 at home or Game 5 back in San Antonio, those are lessons to build on next year. The Spurs are up 3-0 in games and this one’s over.

Oklahoma City 103 LA Lakers 100: The meltdown wasn’t quite as dramatic in this one, but the Laker lead hovered in the 10-point neighborhood for most of the game, before Oklahoma City finally made a decisive push at the end. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were not nearly active enough on the boards, neither in double digits and Gasol a mere five. It became a battle of the stars at that point and with Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Kobe Bryant all having huge nights, the Thunder had one more star. Westbrook hit big shots all game long to keep his team afloat, Durant gained steam in the fourth quarter and finally buried a trey in the face of Metta World Peace that proved be the game-winner. Bryant was accurate in complaining after the game that Gasol needed to be more aggressive, although I’m sure Kobe’s diplomacy on the subject will be called into question and that’s equally accurate.

I do think the whole back-to-back game thing hurting the veteran Lakers more than the young Thunder has to be given some credence here. Oklahoma City played its best basketball in the fourth quarter, Bryant went 1-for-8—a sure sign he was losing his legs—and the Laker perimeter defense suffered. It’s hard not to see some fatigue issues in there. No question Durant and Westbrook played big, and the former’s continued clutch play stands in sharp contrast to LeBron James at the halfway point of the second round. But the Lakers did not get a fair deal from the schedule-maker and I continue to wonder why Boston-Philadelphia got the entire weekend off while the LA teams played back-to-back. It makes even less sense when you consider that NBA planners are worried about tonight’s game with the Clippers, since if the LA Kings’ playoff game with Phoenix goes multiple overtimes, there will be an issue with clearing the ice to set up the basketball court. If a rush job has to be done and any moisture on the court creates an injury look for there to be a real media furor over a situation that could have easily been avoided.

That Clips-Spurs game tonight offers little in the way of storylines. We’ll see how hungry the home team is to stay alive one more game and how hungry the veteran team is to close quickly. I suppose we could read long-term stuff in there, like Los Angeles developing some mettle for future championship runs or San Antonio showing further hunger for the coming conference finals, but I’ll need to see this series stretched to a Game 6 before I’d be ready to go there.

Indiana-Miami is the big one this afternoon. I’ve been high on Indiana’s chances of taking this series this distance from the start and to win it since Chris Bosh went down, but I’m also not ready to give Miami a free pass for their play in Game 3. Say what you will about Bosh, losing him is not an excuse for a 19-point defeat, unless Dwayne Wade is hurt worse than he’s letting on, as I’ve seen suggested. Furthermore, Durant and Westbrook showed last night that a two-man show can at least give you a chance to win. If Wade is better than Westbrook—and he is—and LeBron is really the MVP (I don’t agree, but it’s still close enough)—than shouldn’t they be enough to take this game to the wire. And if Paul Pierce can carry a decimated team to a win in Atlanta, can’t both LeBron and Wade do the same here? I say they can, and look for both big guns to have huge games. Whether Indiana answers depends on whether Roy Hibbert continues to have nights like he did on Friday, when he scored 19 to go with his usual stellar rebounding and defensive effort. He’s the one man the Heat have no answers for.

NBA Playoffs: Sixers & Lakers Win Survival Tests

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The Philadelphia 76ers and the Los Angeles Lakers each faced virtual must-win spots on their home floors—in both cases a loss would have moved them to within a game of elimination with two more road dates ahead of them, in Boston and Oklahoma City respectively. But the Sixers and Lakers got it done and kept their conference semi-finals series alive. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games and looks ahead to Saturday’s doubleheader…

Philadelphia 92 Boston 83: The Celtics had big lead early—they scored the first 14 points and led by 15 at the half, before the Sixers showed the kind of all-heart, refuse-to-lose effort you normally expect from battle-tested teams, not those that “should” be just happy to be in this round. Philadelphia dominated the glass, with a 52-38 edge in rebounding and nowhere was their advantage more pronounced than on the bench. The Philly bench combined to produce 44 points and 24 rebounds, with Lavoy Allen and Thaddeus Young being the key players. By contrast the Boston bench submitted a 12/9 number.  Then add the terrible the Celtic bench play to the continued non-showings by Ray Allen and a cold shooting night by Kevin Garnett—the center came to play, with 11 rebounds, but at 3-of-12 from the floor just couldn’t get his offensive game going. Eventually Philly took over and won and knotted the series two games apiece. One bad sign in the Sixer win—Evan Turner shot of 5-of-22 from the floor. Unless Evan suddenly reappeared to play for Ohio State again, there is no reason for him to ever take 22 shots in a game, particularly when he’s cold.

LA Lakers 99 Oklahoma City 96: I’ll admit my conspiracy radar is going off right now, as the Lakers got 42 free throw attempts to the Thunder’s 28. This isn’t quite at the level of the 2002 Western Conference Finals, where LA was all but gifted a win over Sacramento, but it’s an awful lot of foul shots for a marquee team in a must-win game. I’m not saying the NBA is insistent that Los Angeles win this series as they were back in ’02, but the prospect of Kobe and Durant going a long way surely has some appeal in a postseason were key players are dropping like flies and the Eastern Conference doesn’t have anyone left who can run an offense. Anyway, give the Lakers their due for making an astonishing 41 of those free throw attempts. We can further add that they got to the ball to Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, who combined for 27 points and more importantly, for 22 rebounds. It gave Kobe the support he needed to knock down 36 and help produce a win. Oklahoma City meanwhile is getting killed by the non-performance of Kendrick Perkins. As a Boston fan, the no-show of Perkins is hurting me on many levels—on a night where the Celtics & Red Sox each lost close games in Philadelphia, the continued failures of Perkins hurt the C’s excuse for losing the 2010 Finals after he went down with a torn ACL in Game 6.

It’s a big day in Los Angeles today as both games on the NBA docket will be at the Staples Center, giving this the feel of a second-round NCAA Tournament day with its doubleheader at each venue. The Clippers host the Spurs in a 3:30 PM ET tip. Right now we’re really just looking for Chris Paul to prove he get his shot going and Blake Griffin to prove he can get more than one rebound a game. Until that happens there’s no reason to even speculate on San Antonio getting beat. Then in the nightcap, the Lakers and Thunder are right back at it. This makes for a great day in Los Angeles sports—one that continues tomorrow when the Kings play at Staples to try and clinch the NHL’s Western Conference title—but it’s lousy and unfair scheduling in the NBA. The compressed schedule favors the younger Thunder to begin with and like a doubleheader in baseball, it favors the team who only needs to split two games. This happens while Boston’s veterans get the entire weekend off to gear up for a crucial Game 5 against younger Philadelphia. This whole circumstance leads me to suspend my conspiracy theories noted above and give the Lakers the benefit of the doubt. For now.

NBA Playoffs: Miami Reeling, San Antoino Cruising

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The Miami Heat are officially in serious trouble—not getting a serious challenge—but trouble, as in can lose this series to the Indiana Pacers after a blowout defeat last night left the Pacers up 2-1 in the series. And one team that’s not in serious trouble is San Antonio, who laid waste to the LA Clippers to defend their home floor and take a 2-zip series lead. TheSportsNotebook recaps the games and looks ahead to a playoff doubleheader on Friday…

Indiana 94 Miami 75: Roy Hibbert was great when he had the opportunity to be, and Dwayne Wade was awful when he couldn’t afford to be. That’s the microcosm of the Pacers-Heat game. Hibbert was a dominating force inside for the Pacers, with a 19 points/18 rebounds night while Wade shot a woeful 2-for-13 from the floor and finished with an unbelievable five points. Miami, apparently frustrated by their inability to hit three-pointers in the first two games of the series, decided to unleash from long range on Thursday night and they ended up 4-for-20. Conversely, Indiana used its interior edge, one decidedly enhanced by the injury to Chris Bosh. David West chipped in a 14/9, while Pacer fans had to be heartened to see Danny Granger get into the series, with a 17-point night. If you’re Miami, look at it this way—you got 25 from Mario Challmes and maybe that’s a sign Wade’s running mate is going to start contributing and you have three shots to pick up a win in Indy, presuming you defend the home floor in Games 5 & 7. Do that, maybe Bosh makes it back, and you can restore some order. But on the floor right now, Miami has no answer for Indiana’s inside game and that has nothing to do with whether or not LeBron wants to take a winning shot.

 

San Antonio 105 LA Clippers 88: For as much joy as the city of Los Angeles is getting in hockey and baseball right now, thanks to the Kings and Dodgers (and maybe the Angels before it’s all over), their NBA season looks to be headed for an ending within the next week. One night after the Lakers went a 2-0 hole against Oklahoma City, the Clippers take a bad beating, because they aren’t defending the perimeter and their stars are coming up short. Chris Paul had eight turnovers and Blake Griffin had one rebound. You can say both players are hurt—and that’s almost surely true—but that doesn’t explain why everyone else lets San Antonio shoot 52 percent from the floor. And lest we make this all about LA shortcomings, let’s also point out how much the Spurs’ depth shone again on Thursday night. The team hit 10 three-pointers, but it wasn’t Manu Ginobli doing the damage. This time it was Daniel Green, who bagged four treys. The NFL motto of “Next Man Up” applies even more perfectly to Gregg Popovich’s team.

Tonight the Lakers start what they hope will be the comeback trail against Oklahoma City. Los Angeles’ needs are pretty clear—they need both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol to both have big games, and do it both rebounding and scoring. Oklahoma City has a nice defensive presence inside with Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins, but they don’t match up with a motivated and focused Bynum/Gasol tandem. With Metta World Peace back in the lineup the defense has seen a noticeable uptick on the perimeter, but at the end of games Kobe Bryant has to show he can execute better than Kevin Durant, a rather mindboggling question given the respective stage of their careers. And when I say “execute” I don’t mean score. Create a shot for someone else if necessary. Take a look at the recap Jeff Fogle over at Stat Intelligence did on the Laker meltdown on Wednesday, essentially pointing out that Kobe completely blew this one. The 27 hours that define the LA season start tonight—this series comes right back Saturday night with a back-to-back and the Lakers need to sweep.

Boston’s playing with house money tonight in Philadelphia, having reclaimed homecourt advantage. Will they come out focused and looking for the kill, or hunker down and just try and win home games in Games 5 & 7 to advance? They can do the latter and win the series, but if they want to make the NBA Finals, there’s no team in basketball that needs the rest an early clinch would provide.

NBA Playoffs: The Thunder Show Championship Mettle

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The Oklahoma City Thunder showed why they may be morphing into a championship team in front of our very eyes. The Boston Celtics showed the stuff that once helped them win a championship, as both teams won last night in the NBA playoffs. OkC successfully defended its homecourt against the LA Lakers to grab a 2-0 series lead, while the Celtics reclaimed homecourt, by beating Philadelphia on the road in Game 3 and going up 2-1. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games and looks ahead to tonight’s doubleheader…

Oklahoma City 77 LA Lakers 75: It was a case of déjà vu. The Lakers opened the season back on Christmas by blowing a seven-point lead against Chicago in the final two minutes. The Thunder opened the playoffs by rallying from seven down against Dallas in the last two minutes. Oklahoma City did it again, Los Angeles coughed it up again and the Thunder escaped. As the final score indicates, there weren’t a lot of offensive heroics, but let’s start by contrasting the play of the stars. Kobe Bryant had 20 points, but needed 25 shots from the floor to get there. Kevin Durant had 22, which doesn’t jump out at you, but Durant only took 15 shots. When we see the Oklahoma City star playing much more efficient basketball and his team consistently being the one who executes down the stretch, it’s fair to wonder who’s the up-and-comer, and who’s the team with all the rings. Los Angeles put forth the effort last night, evidenced in a 41-36 rebounding advantage, with both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol giving double-digit numbers on the glass. But they didn’t execute and they didn’t hit from the perimeter, shooting 39 percent and bricking 13 of 15 shots from behind the arc. No one outside the core three players made any real contributions. Now the deck is stacked against the veteran Lakers, who not only have to win two straight at home, but a schedule quirk means Games 3 & 4 go back-to-back days on Friday and Saturday.

Boston 107 Philadelphia 91: The 76ers started off playing well and led by five at the quarter. On TNT though, analyst Chris Webber—and Sixers coach Doug Collins in the wired for sound feature—was noting that Boston was driving to the basket and not settling for jump shots. Once Philly cooled down, the game got out of hand, and the Celtics had it blown open by halftime. Kevin Garnett continued his strong playoff showing, with 27 points/13 rebounds and Rajon Rondo shot 9-of-16 from the floor in with a 23/6, plus 14 assists. When you look at Paul Pierce’s line you see some of the inefficiencies that sank Kobe—Pierce got 24, but was only 6-of-17 from the floor. Against a stronger opponent that would have mattered, but for now that big deal is that Pierce got back into the flow of play and was aggressive with the ball. The aggressiveness was reflected in getting to the foul line 14 times, where he cashed 11 of his points and also getting 12 rebounds. Philadelphia’s goats horns are worn primarily by the inside people, as Elton Brand and Spence Hawes were irrelevant to the proceedings, and Evan Turner shot just 1-of-10 from the floor.

Tonight, the LA Clippers game in San Antonio finishes all the Game 2s in this round. I would expect Chris Paul to play much better tonight. He’s a proud player, and since his problems in the opener were more the shooting touch that can come and go, I see a strong showing from him. But San Antonio’s Tony Parker is also due for a much better performance than he showed in the opener. I think Los Angeles will make this a much tougher game than in Game 1, but they’ve got to have Blake Griffin play like a star—specifically rebounding—if they’re going to win a game on the road.

Miami’s feeling the pressure (I was going to say feeling the heat, but didn’t feel like adding all the no pun intended qualifiers) as they go to Indiana. I’ll say flat-out that this is the Pacers’ series to lose right now. There is no way Miami can contain Roy Hibbert and David West in the post and while putting LeBron down at power forward in Chris Bosh’s spot might make the most sense, it also reduces LeBron’s ability to fill the lanes on the fast break. The problem that Pacers face is that Roy Hibbert needs to consistently demand—and be given—the basketball in the low post. And Danny Granger has got to step up with a 20-point night. He doesn’t have to be LeBron or Wade, but if Indiana’s best player is as out of it tonight as he was the first two games, then the interior edge won’t matter. I’m rooting for the Pacers in this series and hoping team president Larry Bird has a little chat with Granger about what it means to embrace the responsibility of being a star.

NBA Playoffs: Rebounding Keys Indiana & San Antonio Wins

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Rebounding was the story in the NBA last night, as the Indiana Pacers and San Antonio Spurs each hit the glass, and the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Clippers either couldn’t or wouldn’t. The Pacers evened their series with the Heat at a game apiece and the Spurs took the opener of their battle with the Clippers. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games and looks ahead to tonight’s twinbill…

Indiana 78 Miami 75: Both teams shot under 40 percent from the floor, so there were plenty of rebounds available and it was Indiana who got 55 percent of the available boards. To a certain extent this was to be expected, as Miami was already a little overmatched down low by Indiana and then lost Chris Bosh to the abdominal strain that appears to have him sidelined for at least this series. So Miami has an excuse, but we still have to ask why Udonis Haslem and Joel Anthony can only combine for ten rebounds. By comparison three Indiana players—David West, Roy Hibbert and Paul George all matched or exceeded that by themselves. And George is a freakin’ guard! Yes, he’s 6’8”, but he should be outrebounding two centers by himself? Thus, even though LeBron got his 28 points and 9 rebounds, and Dwayne Wade got his 24, Miami’s giving up homecourt advantage. You certainly have to like Indiana’s chances right now—they have homecourt and have an inside edge they know they can hammer away at the rest of the series. But Danny Granger is still in a funk, with only 11 points last night. Depth is great and frankly I’d be heartened to see it prevail, but realistically you aren’t going to win a series with your best player persona non grata.

 

San Antonio 108 LA Clippers 92: No one can be surprised to see Tim Duncan grasp a big moment. With 26 points and 10 rebounds, the veteran big man sent a message to young Blake Griffin—not just yet. And Griffin didn’t seem inclined to protest the message too loudly, settling for 15 points and 9 rebounds. Now the point total’s not a big problem—it matches what Caron Butler had, and that was a nice game for the small forward. The rebound total is not a big problem—it matches what DeAndre Jordan had and that was a nice game for the center. But someone needs to tell Griffin words to the effect “You are Blake Freakin’ Griffin, guy who jumps over cars and sells Kia’s. 15/9 doesn’t cut it for you. 20/10 cuts it for you. And at this time of year, make it every night.” Griffin can take a lesson from Chris Paul, who might have struggled last night, but at least showed he recognized his role. According to the game write-up on ESPN.com, Paul corrected his son who told him “Good game Daddy.” The point guard informed the boy “Daddy had a bad game. Daddy couldn’t make a shot.” Indeed, he went 3-of-13, but shooting comes and goes. Leadership and understanding your importance to the team endures.

The other Los Angeles team, the Lakers, looks to get back on track tonight in Oklahoma City. Like the Clips, the Lakers best chance to win a road game early is realistically Game 2, since both Hollywood teams came off Game 7s over the weekend. The prereq to a Laker win is going to be both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol being into the game on both ends, and then Kobe being willing to give up the ball down low. If it’s left to Bryant—by circumstance of the superstar’s own insistence—it won’t work. Oklahoma City can more than match the star power. Los Angeles also needs Ron Artest to at least slow Kevin Durant, or shift him to guarding Russell Westbrook. The Thunder will get their scoring from those two, plus James Harden and all it takes it just a little defensive effort against one of them to swing a close game.

Boston goes to Philadelphia in the first series to have a Game 3. The first two in Boston where knockdown ugly affairs. The Celtics got Ray Allen going in Game 2 and now they need Paul Pierce to get off the schneid in this series. Philadelphia needs center Spencer Hawes to continue the strong rebounding effort he gave in the Game 2 win.

NBA 2nd Round Preview: San Antonio-LA Clippers

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The San Antonio Spurs have been waiting and resting for their second-round series since dispensing with Utah in a four-game sweep. The Los Angeles Clippers finally joined the Spurs in the bracket this past Sunday when they won Game 7 in Memphis. The Spurs-Clippers will be the last of the second-round series to get underway tonight down in the shadows of the Riverwalk and the Alamo, and TheSportsNotebook previews the series…

Depth has been San Antonio’s calling card all year long and that remains the case in the playoffs. While Tim Duncan and Tony Parker are getting more court time than they did in the regular season, the fact remains that if you just look at the Spurs’ roster you will be underwhelmed, you’ll compare it to Clippers’ lineup that has Chris Paul and Blake Griffin and see an upset in the making. It could happen, but this neglects the obvious disparities that exist in the way these teams play together.

The disparity in togetherness is more about praising San Antonio than knocking Los Angeles. The Spurs are getting quality minutes from players like Stephen Jackson, Daniel Green, Boris Diaw and Kawhi Leonard. They have a center in Tiago Splitter, whose minutes have been cut in the playoffs as Duncan’s need for rest isn’t the same, but Splitter can rebound and block shots. Because the team is so deep, none of the players gets enough minutes to compile eye-popping stats, but San Antonio always has fresh legs to play defense, hit the boards and get quality shots. And a team that shot at least 48 percent in each of the first three games against Utah is clearly getting quality shots.

What Utah did do well in the first round, and what Los Angeles has to take note of, is rebound the ball. The Jazz won the battle of the boards three times in four games and San Antonio’s one win was by a single rebound. Utah’s smallest margin was six. Duncan’s numbers were down here in the road games, but the bigger issue is that Splitter or Boris Diaw down low needs to grab a few more off the bench. The flip side of this is that, while I generally don’t think a team should plan on shooting 50 percent or so from the floor in any game, much less than the playoffs, San Antonio turned in their good offensive performances in spite of Manu Ginobli, a very good pure outside shooter, not playing well the first three games. If you get an experienced team working the ball and their best shooter back into rhythm, another high-percentage series is very possible.

The bigger reason a high percentage shooting series is possible for the favorite is that Los Angeles spent six games playing defense that was substandard for the playoffs. Memphis consistently shot in the mid-40s. While that’s not lights-out, it suggests a defense that’s okay—good enough to win a first-round series, but not do any damage against the big boys. Furthermore, if San Antonio was beaten on the glass by Utah, Los Angeles was positively pummeled by Memphis, losing rebounding from Games 2 thru 6 by margins ranging from decisive to outrageous. Los Angeles turned the ball over too frequently, with four of seven games 16 or higher, which can feed a Spurs strength, that of taking care of the ball.

LA’s Game 7 win on Sunday was ugly, but for a road team in the playoffs it was finally the game where they did a lot of what needs to be done. They got quality bench minutes, they narrowly outrebounded Memphis and they held their opponent to 33 percent shooting. They need to take that one game and spread it out for an entire series against San Antonio.

San Antonio has a lot going for them—they have homecourt, they have rest, they have players with championship experience and that takes a lot to overcome in the playoffs. What the Clippers do have—something that most 5-seeds don’t (think Atlanta) is real star power. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, when hitting on all cylinders and can win you a big game. Which brings us to the biggest variable of all and that’s Griffin. Yes, he can win you a game when’s focused, both rebounding and scoring. So how many double-digit rebound games did he have in a seven-game series against Memphis? One. Compare that to Duncan who had two in a four-game set, one of which he came out early when the game was in hand. This single comparison tells you why San Antonio will win this series.

The Clippers deserve a lot of respect for winning a seventh game on the road. Chris Paul is an excellent point guard and his presence ensures that someone will keep offensive flow going at key moments. That, combined with the games that Griffin comes to play, means the underdog will steal at least one win and perhaps two. They are good enough, and as they showed Sunday, mentally tough enough to win on the road. But they’re also inconsistent enough to lose at home. That’s why I’m saying it’s the Spurs in six.

NBA Playoffs: Philadelphia Makes It A Series

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The Philadelphia 76ers officially sent word to the NBA that the battle is joined in their second-round series against the Boston Celtics, as the Sixers pulled out an 82-81 win in the Garden last night to even the series at a game apiece as action reverts to Philadelphia on Friday night.

While Jrue Holiday played an excellent game at point guard—he scored 18, drained 4/6 from three-point range and was part of a defensive effort that helped keep Rajon Rondo under control—the biggest reason Philadelphia won this game was that they owned the glass and got to the foul line. Spencer Hawes led the rebounding effort with ten boards and the Sixer bench was a big part of the win. The quartet of Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young, Jodie Meeks and Lavoy Allen combined for 26 points, and more impressively, for 19 rebounds. Contrast this with the Boston bench, which got only six rebounds (The C’s reserves had 31 points, but that’s because Ray Allen is technically a bench player and scored 17. If you base it on minutes played and move Allen up, with Avery Bradley down, the Celtics’ subs only had 22 points).  And the Philadelphia bench was 10/10 from the line. Boston was able to get its three-point shooting game back in gear, with the good night from Allen and Mickael Pietrus nailing a couple big treys in a fourth quarter rally that looked like it would deliver another Boston win. But when the outside shooting denies you getting to the foul line consistently, it loses a lot of value. Paul Pierce was a non-factor for the second straight game, scoring only seven points.

Oklahoma City 109 LA Lakers 90: If the Lakers were going to win a game in Oklahoma City it wasn’t going to be last night. Not with the team coming off the emotional Game 7 win on Saturday night over Denver and the Thunder well-rested. The energy disparity showed up on the defensive end, where Los Angeles let OkC hit 53 percent from the floor and had no luck forcing the ball off of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, with the duo combining for 52 points. But I think the Thunder have to be concerned about the lack of inside presence from Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins—not so much in scoring, but rebounding. Even with Pau Gasol playing as though he’d have been better off staying in the hotel, the Thunder were still narrowly outrebounded last night. Andrew Bynum, the youngest of the Laker core, was the one who made the biggest impact, with 20 points/14 rebounds. Kobe had 20, but little else, which for him is a quiet night. Oklahoma City doesn’t need scoring balance—with James Harden kicking in off the bench they have the three scorers necessary to win a big series like this—but they need the entire lineup involved in defense and rebounding, and if both Gasol and Bynum click in rhythm in Game  2 on Wednesday, this could still be a series.

Two more games go tonight. Indiana takes another crack at Miami after being beaten by the Heat in the fourth quarter of Game 1 on Sunday. Chris Bosh is out indefinitely for Miami and the reports that indefinitely means at least this series. This is no small loss—not only because of Bosh’s talent, as one just a step behind LeBron and Dwayne Wade, but because Indiana is exactly the kind of team that can exploit a Miami interior that was already a problem. Roy Hibbert and David West played well on Sunday and they have to smell blood in the water tonight. Danny Granger needs to play like a leading scorer. If Indiana does these things, they’ll steal a road win and that’s what I’m expecting to happen.

The Los Angeles Clippers visit San Antonio to start their second round series. TheSportsNotebook’s series preview will post late Tuesday morning.

NBA 2nd Round Preview: Oklahoma City-LA Lakers

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The Western Conference semi-finals begin tonight in Oklahoma City, as the Thunder host the Los Angeles Lakers. It’s a series of contrasts, as OkC swept Dallas home in the first round and has been resting since May 5. LA, on the other hand, had Denver on the ropes, failed to finish them off and got pushed to a seven-game series that ended Saturday night. So can the presumably tired veteran team match up with the fresh young team? TheSportsNotebook previews the series…

If Los Angeles is going to win this series, both Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are going to have to come out to play like they did in Game 7. Bynum blocked six shots and hauled in 18 rebounds, while Gasol scored 23 points and grabbed 17 boards. And they did this against a Denver team that had matched up with them on the glass all series, and rebounded well all season. Oklahoma City is no pushover in the post—not with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka—but when it comes to matchup edges, there’s none bigger for the Lakers than right here and Bynum and Gasol have to make it happen.

Oklahoma City’s advantage comes on the perimeter, so long as we extend that to include the small forward spot. Kevin Durant, TheSportsNotebook’s choice for the MVP award that went to LeBron over the weekend,  plays from the outside, so that’s a fair comparison and when you couple him with Russell Westbrook and James Harden off the bench, the Thunder are potent here, and it really doesn’t matter if Kobe Bryant hangs 40 a night, his team is going to be overmatched outside. It makes you understand why Ron Artest threw a cheap elbow at James Harden. Okay, not really, but you get how big of an edge OkC has here (And I’m no longer dignifying Artest by calling him “Metta World Peace” anymore.  I have all year, figuring the man legally changed his name, so even if it was self-aggrandizing I’d honor that. But to first call yourself the Man of World Peace, then hurl a cheap shot is too much. He’s back to being Artest).

Can either team do anything to mitigate the other’s edges? Oklahoma City will need a strong rebounding series from Perkins. He only played well in two of the four games against Dallas and needs to be good for 8-9 boards a night here. Ibaka is an even bigger factor. One of the few inside players in the NBA who can block shots like Bynum and acknowledged as one of the top five defenders in the game, Ibaka can make life miserable for Los Angeles if they try dribble-penetration.

This brings us to the guards. Ramon Sessions is the man LA acquired to run its offense midway through the year and for the first six games of the Denver series he was consistent in scoring 10-15 ppg and distributing the ball. But he disappeared in Game 7 and from a defensive standpoint, he’s  completely mismatched by Westbrook, who’s not far behind Durant when it comes to scoring proficiency. Artest can match up with one of the two scorers on the defensive end, something the Lakers lacked for the first six games of the Denver series while he was on suspension. But while we acknowledge Artest’s defensive skills, he’s not so good that he’s going to wipe out Durant or Westbrook. He can just slow them up a bit and make them work harder, and in either case, there’s still no one to match up on the player he doesn’t guard. Sessions won’t stop either one and Kobe certainly won’t. Oh, and we’ve forgotten Harden off the bench, who churned out 29 points in clinching situation on the road at Dallas.

The basic personnel outline gives Oklahoma City an edge, but nothing that a veteran team with a championship pedigree like Los Angeles can’t overcome. Where the Thunder can make this series a mismatch is by controlling pace—specifically, turning these games into a track meet. Even under the best of circumstances, the Lakers are not deep enough to keep up with the young Thunder and given the disparities in rest, these are actually the worst of circumstances. And then we go into the fact that a 94-foot game by definition favors the perimeter team over the frontcourt team.

Finally we come to the big factor in every NBA playoff series and its star on star. Both Durant and Kobe are pure scorers, in the sense that neither one is likely to rack up 10 assists. With Kobe, the Lakers played their best games against Denver when he wasn’t shooting all the time. That could be a sign of him needing to not play ballhog, or a sign of Bynum and Gasol needing to make themselves available so the star doesn’t feel the need to do it himself—and my guess is that it’s a mix of both. Bryant scored 43 points in a Game 5 loss where the big men might as well have sat next to Jack Nicholson in the stands. He scored 17 and had 8 assists in Game 7 where they both came to play. In the case of Durant, while I’m not suggesting he be a ballhog, he does need to be in the 25-30 point range for his team to win and he’s probably going to need one Jordan-esque game where he puts the team on his shoulders.

I liked what I saw from Oklahoma City in the first round, especially the way they seized the moment on the road and the way Durant scored 31 in the Game 3 win that was the knockout blow. The presence of Bryant and the Lakers’ championship pedigree deserves respect, but those same assets didn’t stop them from getting swept home by Dallas last year, nor did they stop them from blowing two straight clinching spots against Denver. The guess here is that Los Angeles has enough to make these games close and enough that if it gets to a Game 6, I’d never go against them at home. But do they have enough to win one in Oklahoma City and defend their home floor without exception? I don’t see that. The Thunder win two at home, steal one in Staples and then clinch in five.

NBA Playoffs: The LA Clippers Fill Out The Second Round Bracket

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The first round of the NBA playoffs officially ended yesterday afternoon as the Los Angeles Clippers won Game 7 over Memphis, while the second round continued, as Miami beat Indiana. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games and looks ahead to a doubleheader tonight…

LA Clippers 82 Memphis 72: Chris Paul shot 1-for-6 from three-point range and turned the ball over five times. Blake Griffin might as well have not made the flight, with eight points and four rebounds. The Clips shot 39 percent. And this is the team that won the game. How did this happen? Memphis was able to “counter” with an extraordinary display of shooting ineptitude from their top three guards. Mike Conley, Tony Allen O.J. Mayo combined to shoot 6-for-37 from the floor, a stunning 16 percent. As a team the Grizzlies missed all 13 three-pointers. That’s how you pull off the rarity of losing a seventh game in your own building and doing it to a team that played poor offensive basketball themselves.

In the media reports afterward, both coaches noted the play of their respective benches, good and bad and this was a big difference in the game. The Clipper reserves, led by forward Kenyon Martin and guard Nick Young, combined for 41 points/23 rebounds, while Memphis had only an 11/12 combined line. Rudy Gay and Marc Gasol each scored 19 for Memphis, but there was too much cold play elsewhere for that to be enough, so Los Angeles is moving to the second round for the first time in 16 years.

Miami 95 Indiana 86: Normally if I see a situation where LeBron James and Dwayne Wade, playing at home, against a non-marquee opponent, manage to combined for 24 free throw attempts—nearly as many as the entire Indiana team—it’s going to inspire a round of comments regarding David Stern’s desire to see the Heat advance. Not this time. The Pacers ended up with 10 fewer free throw attempts than their opponent, because they didn’t take the ball to the basket with authority, at least not in the  fourth quarter of a game they led or were at least even most of the way. Indiana’s idea of an offense down the stretch was to pass it around the perimeter and then fire from long range. They were just 4-of-17 from behind the arc. Miami, like Memphis in the early game, didn’t make a three, but the Heat didn’t waste possessions trying, only missing six. LeBron ended up with a 32/15 line, while Wade scored 29.

In spite of this, Indiana did a lot of what they needed to do win, even allowing the bricked treys down the stretch. Chris Bosh left the game with an abdominal strain and is doubtful for Game 2. No one else contributed offensively, though Joel Anthony did grab seven rebounds. On the Pacers side, Roy Hibbert had a 17/11 game, and David West stepped up with 17/12, effectively exploiting the Miami interior. But the Pacers will not win games without Danny Granger, and the star did not meet the moment, scoring only seven points. As discussed in the series preview, it takes a lot in the NBA to overcome homecourt advantage and superior star power, and Indiana just didn’t hit on all cylinders.

The second round in the Eastern Conference continues tonight when Boston hosts Philadelphia. The Celtics were able to get a one-point win in the opener without a major contribution from Paul Pierce and virtually nothing from Ray Allen. At least one of the two–likely Pierce–has to step up and give some help to Kevin Garnett and Rajon Rondo. Philadelphia needs to get continued strong play from Andre Iguodala, and they need better rebounding from Spencer Hawes and Elton Brand. Neither team is good at hitting the boards, but the Celtics had a narrow edge in this area in Game 1.

Western Conference action in the second round opens tonight when the Los Angeles Lakers visit Oklahoma City. Look for that series preview here this afternoon. Then on Tuesday it’s San Antonio hosting the LA Clippers in the opener. TheSportsNotebook will preview that series tomorrow.

NBA Playoffs: Lakers Advance With Game 7 Win

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The Los Angeles Lakers closed out one series with a tough win and the Boston Celtics opened another with a narrow escape, as the NBA playoffs sits on the fulcrum between the first and second rounds this weekend. TheSportsNotebook recaps both games…

LA Lakers 96 Denver 87: The Nuggets did a lot of what they had to do to win a seventh game on the road. They played good defense, holding Los Angeles to under 40 percent shooting. Even though Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum were all over the boards, combining for 35 rebounds, Denver still won the team rebounding battle 54-50. Kobe Bryant was held in reasonable check, scoring 17 points. But the Nuggets still came up short, because Danilo Gallinari must have been somewhere other than the Staples Center last night. The small forward who’s such a big part of the Denver offense scored only three points on 1-of-9 shooting. Coupled with cold nights from Andre Miller, and Gasol knocking down 23 for the Lakers, it was enough to put the home team over the top.

 

Overall, Denver got good play in the backcourt, with Ty Lawson and Aron Afflalo combining for 39 points, and Al Harrington came off the bench to score 24. Kenneth Faried didn’t score at power forward but he gave the team consistent rebounding effort throughout the series, including last night with ten boards. But this is the NBA playoffs and play by stars trumps all, especially in a big game. Even on an off-night, Kobe still contributed and at least he was efficient, shooting 7-for-16 and letting the big guys take over. Gallinari on the other hand, was persona non grata and that’s why Los Angeles is going to Oklahoma City for a second-round matchup that starts Monday.

Boston 92 Philadelphia 91: 48 hours after clinching their first-round series, these two teams started the NBA’s second round and Philly was the team ready for the tip, getting an early lead and still being up ten early in the fourth quarter. Then the Celtics took over. Kevin Garnett continued his strong play from the Atlanta series and with 29 points and 11 rebounds has been the best player in the postseason not named LeBron James. Garnett’s rebounding keyed a rare Celtic advantage on the boards—both of these teams are poor on the glass. As noted here at TheSportsNotebook in the series preview, 76er point guard Jrue Holiday had a tougher time scoring now that he’s not playing against backup guards. Holiday was held to eight points, though running mate Evan Turner was Philly’s best player, turning in a 16/10 night.

Philadelphia was in a position to win because the Celtics bricked three-point shots all over, going 2-for-18. Even though Ray Allen played 33 minutes after being listed as doubtful yesterday morning, he hasn’t gotten into his shooting rhythm for the entire postseason. The Sixers also had a shot because Andre Iguodala came up with 19 points, while counterpart Paul Pierce had only 14. How much Pierce is slowed by the knee injury is going to be a huge subplot in this series. But in the end, Boston has the Rajon Rondo factor and the little point guard had a triple-double, at 13 points, 12 rebounds and 17 assists and they had homecourt. That was enough to scrape out a win. The Celtics and Sixers will be back here on Monday.

The last game of the first round goes this afternoon when Memphis hosts the Los Angeles Clippers in a Game 7. The Grizzlies frontcourt of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol has stepped it up the last two games and if you combine that with homecourt, Memphis will be tough to stop. The Clippers have to counter with either dominating the backcourt—and while I respect Memphis’ Mike Conley, it’s very easy to imagine Chris Paul having that type of game against almost anyone. And they cannot afford to have Blake Griffin show up in single digits rebounding-wise again. This is about as intriguing a Game 7 as you can get. The Clips have the individual best players, but the Grizzlies have homecourt. Which of the two decisive factors holds true? I’m going with homecourt. Memphis has the playoff experience from last year, I’m not ready to give Griffin the benefit of the doubt and assume he’ll come up with a good game, and even though I’ll give Paul the benefit of the doubt—mainly because I read and listen to Grantland’s Bill Simmons, a Clippers’ season-ticket holder too much—let’s acknowledge that this type of game is new territory for Los Angeles too. In the NBA you have to lose before you can win. It’s kind of like a Republican presidential primary. And for this series, it’s Memphis’ turn.

The Miami-Indiana second round series also begins today. TheSportsNotebook’s series preview is here.

NBA 2nd Round Preview: Miami-Indiana

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The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers both took care of business as favorites in their first-round playoff series, closing out the New York Knicks and Orlando Magic respectively, in five games. On Sunday the Heat and Pacers tip off their second-round series and TheSportsNotebook previews the action…

Miami was the favorite to win the East to begin with and the fall of Chicago and to the extent anyone even considers the possibility they might lose prior to the Finals, those thoughts focus on Boston rather than Indiana. That drastically underrates the Pacers’ chances.

Depth is a big problem for Miami. The Knicks were a two-man team themselves, and Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudamire were no match for Dwayne Wade and LeBron James, the newly anointed Most Valuable Player for 2012 (The SportsNotebook picked Kevin Durant). Indiana counters the star system with a team concept that gets contributions from 7-8 players. The depth is especially good in the backcourt. Wade abused the lousy Knick guards, and the disappointment that is Mario Challmes could be covered up. While Indiana’s guards aren’t dominant, the foursome of George Hill, Darren Collison, Leandro Barbosa and Paul George will ensure fresh defenders.

Indiana has a big edge at center where Roy Hibbert has the potential to dominate Miami in the paint. Udonis Haslem has been disappointing for Miami, while Joel Anthony has been a positive disaster. Hibbert consistently rebounds and can block shots. The issue will be his scoring. He has the ability to produce offensively, but he’s not a natural scorer and was inconsistent against Orlando. Hibbert needs to be in the 15 points/10 rebounds area each game for a series upset to be in the cards.

What we’ve just discussed is what Indiana has going for them. Now let’s look at the problem and it’s that their best two players are small forward Danny Granger and power forward David West and they each played very well in the Orlando series, including moments where they each put the team on their backs the way playoff stars have to do. So what’s the problem? Well, if this series comes down to whether Granger can outgun LeBron at small forward, the Pacers are in trouble. West vs. Chris Bosh at power forward isn’t quite as big a problem, but it still presents a matchup edge for the Heat.

LeBron was locked in during the New York series, scoring 137 points in the five games and rebounding consistently. This gets overlooked by the media who focus on the fact that the star isn’t obsessed with taking the last shot. This is the same media who rips on Kobe Bryant for his ball-hogging. What everyone seems to have forgotten is that no less a stud than Michael Jordan was known to pass off on occasion for a big shot (John Paxson in the 1993 Finals and Steve Kerr in the 1997 Finals). LeBron will have to win multiple rings before he gets the benefit of the doubt, but while I’m not a big fan of his, nor am I a hater, and a bar has been set for him that’s unreasonable. Bottom line for this series? As good a player as Danny Granger is, the Pacers are the team that has to try and win this series by going to some facet of their team that’s less than the best.

Indiana’s depth in the backcourt and the possibilities of a big series for Hibbert make this a competitive series and I give the Pacers a serious chance to win. But ultimately, homecourt advantage of having the single best player are often prohibitive in the NBA. Miami’s got those, and they’ve got the second best player in Wade. They’re a heavy favorite in Las Vegas—you have to give 1-9 odds if you want to bet the Heat, while you can get 6-1 on the Pacers if you’re upset-inclined. I’d only put money behind Miami if the odds were more like 5-4, because I think this one’s going the distance.

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